Getafe v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 3 May 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
3 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
1.05 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.39 – +1.05
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
40.7%
Draw
31.9%
Rayo Vallecano win
27.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Rayo Vallecano are conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWDDWWLDL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 14
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–0.81 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.13–1.13 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 46% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 1.39 xGRayo Vallecano 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Rayo Vallecano attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Rayo Vallecano |
Gerard Gumbau | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
 Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 37' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 40' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Luis Milla |
| 42' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Alex Sancris | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Luis Milla |
| 47' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luis Milla |
| 47' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 49' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Camello |
| 50' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Sergio Camello | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Alemão |
| 52' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Jorge De Frutos | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gerard Gumbau |
| 60' |
Getafe |
Abu Kamara | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Diego Rico |
| 60' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Abu Kamara |
| 63' |
Getafe |
Luis Vázquez | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Getafe |
Mauro Arambarri | 0.74 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — | |
| 72' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Gerard Gumbau |
| 79' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 85' |
Rayo Vallecano |
Randy Nteka | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 87' |
Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Alex Sancris |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Abdelkabir Abqar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Juan Iglesias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luis Vázquez FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Luis Milla MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.16 |
| Davinchi DL | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.11 |
| Adrián Liso MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abu Kamara Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Alex Sancris Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.13 |
| Diego Rico Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Javi Muñoz Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Borja Mayoral Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerard Gumbau DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.17 |
| Iván Balliu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Florian Lejeune DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Augusto Batalla GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pathé Ciss DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jozhua Vertrouwd DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Sergio Camello AMC | 75 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Jorge De Frutos AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Alfonso Espino AML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Alemão FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Andrei Ratiu Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pep Chavarría Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Unai López Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Randy Nteka Sub | 15 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Óscar Valentín Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |