Getafe v Valencia — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 18 January 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 7
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.22 – 0.14
Goals − xG
-0.58 – +0.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Getafe win
38.1%
Draw
31.4%
Valencia win
30.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Getafe are finishing below their chances — 2.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLLDWLWLWL last 10
scored 6
from 8.1 xG
conceded 10
from 12.5 xG
Valencia have scored 12 from 12.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.9 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWDWWDLLL last 10
scored 12
from 12.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.99–1.20 | 0-1 13% | 38% | 44% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Getafe 0.58 xGValencia 0.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Getafe attacking right
Valencia attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Martín |
| 13' |
Getafe |
Adrián Liso | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Martín |
| 24' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Javi Muñoz |
| 31' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 32' |
Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Martín |
| 37' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Getafe |
Juan Iglesias | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 41' |
 Valencia |
Filip Ugrinic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Dimitri Foulquier |
| 45' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martín Satriano |
| 55' |
Valencia |
Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Duro |
| 56' |
Getafe |
Mario Martín | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luis Milla |
| 56' |
Getafe |
Martín Satriano | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Diego Rico |
| 65' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Rioja |
| 70' |
Getafe |
Javi Muñoz | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Valencia |
Umar Sadiq | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Valencia |
Diego López | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Valencia |
Pepelu | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Filip Ugrinic |
| 83' |
Valencia |
José Gayá | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Filip Ugrinic |
| 87' |
Getafe |
Luis Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Juanmi |
| 94' |
Getafe |
Diego Rico | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Getafe
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martín Satriano FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Luis Milla MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Diego Rico DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.08 | 0.21 |
| David Soria GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Domingos Duarte DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mauro Arambarri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Djené Dakonam DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mario Martín FW | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Javi Muñoz MR | 87 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.04 | 0.18 |
| Adrián Liso ML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Juanmi Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Alejandro Mestanza Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Coba da Costa Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Valencia
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Gayá DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Pepelu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Stole Dimitrievski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Copete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Luis Rioja MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.44 |
| Dimitri Foulquier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Filip Ugrinic MC | 89 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.50 | 0.44 |
| Lucas Beltrán FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Arnaut Danjuma Groeneveld ML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Hugo Duro FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Baptiste Santamaria Sub | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| César Tárrega DC | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Diego López Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Umar Sadiq Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Javier Guerra Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rubén Iranzo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |