Gil Vicente FC v Académico de Viseu — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · POR-Primeira Liga · 2627
Primeira Liga
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-0 13.5%
- 1-1 11.5%
- 2-0 9.6%
- 2-1 9.3%
- 0-1 8.9%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 44.9% | Under 2.5 | 55.1% |
| BTTS yes | 47.4% | BTTS no | 52.6% |
| Gil Vicente FC 1+ | 77.9% | Gil Vicente FC 2+ | 44.6% |
| Académico de Viseu 1+ | 61.8% | Académico de Viseu 2+ | 25.0% |
Expected goals 1.51 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Gil Vicente FC carry the stronger rating, 1505 Elo against 1479.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Académico de Viseu have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Gil Vicente FC have an estimated 50.7% win probability, against 24.8% for Académico de Viseu and 24.4% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.51 for Gil Vicente FC and 0.96 for Académico de Viseu.
Why Gil Vicente FC
Gil Vicente FC carry the stronger rating, 1505 Elo against 1479.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 24.4%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.
Why Académico de Viseu can win
Nothing in the data singles out Académico de Viseu.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Gil Vicente FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Académico de Viseu, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Gil Vicente FC: 49% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 10.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Académico de Viseu: 51% possession, 10.0 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Gil Vicente FC are the model's most likely outcome at 50.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.5%. Confidence 67/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.51–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.55–1.00 | 1-0 13% | 47% | 49% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.