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Gimnasia La Plata v Tigre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Gimnasia La Plata win
37.4%
Draw
30.7%
Tigre win
31.9%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.10–1.00 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.00–0.96 0-0 15% 31% 39%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata to win 35.0% 36.4% 41.7% 0.87× 2.75
Tigre to win 32.9% 30.4% 27.8% 1.09× 3.29
Draw 32.0% 30.4% 30.6% 0.99× 3.29
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata & not both score 23.8% 21.9% 27.8% 0.79× 4.57
Tigre & not both score 22.3% 21.9% 17.2% 1.27× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 17.5% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Draw & not both score 14.5% 13.3% 14.8% 0.90× 7.54
Gimnasia La Plata & both teams score 11.2% 13.3% 14.1% 0.94× 7.55
Tigre & both teams score 10.6% 13.3% 10.7% 1.24× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata & under 3.5 29.8% 26.0% 34.9% 0.75× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 28.4% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 28.4% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Tigre & under 3.5 28.2% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Gimnasia La Plata & over 1.5 21.3% 21.6% 27.6% 0.78× 4.62
Gimnasia La Plata & under 2.5 20.7% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.62
Tigre & over 1.5 19.8% 18.0% 17.5% 1.03× 5.56
Tigre & under 2.5 19.6% 18.0% 14.7% 1.23× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.5% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 14.5% 12.9% 14.8% 0.87× 7.77
Gimnasia La Plata & under 1.5 13.7% 12.9% 14.2% 0.91× 7.77
Gimnasia La Plata & over 2.5 14.3% 12.9% 18.2% 0.71× 7.77
Tigre & under 1.5 13.1% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.77
Tigre & over 2.5 13.3% 12.9% 13.2% 0.98× 7.77
Gimnasia La Plata & over 3.5 5.2% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.70
Tigre & over 3.5 4.7% 4.8% 4.2% 1.13× 20.92
Draw & over 2.5 3.6% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.6% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata (1UP) 47.9% 43.4% 2.31
Tigre (1UP) 46.0% 43.2% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata (2UP) 35.0% 37.0% 2.70
Tigre (2UP) 32.9% 31.2% 3.21
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 43.4% 41.3% 2.42
Tigre to win 2nd half 28.5% 26.4% 3.79
Gimnasia La Plata to win 2nd half 28.1% 26.4% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (+2.5) 96.2% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Tigre (+1.5) 86.6% 88.5% 82.5% 1.07× 1.13
Gimnasia La Plata (+0.5) 67.1% 68.7% 72.2% 0.95× 1.46
Tigre (+0.5) 65.0% 62.9% 58.3% 1.08× 1.59
Gimnasia La Plata (-0.5) 35.0% 37.1% 41.7% 0.89× 2.70
Tigre (-0.5) 32.9% 31.3% 27.8% 1.13× 3.19
Gimnasia La Plata (-1.5) 13.4% 11.5% 17.5% 0.66× 8.69
Gimnasia La Plata (-2.5) 3.8% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.80
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre to concede 63.2% 67.2% 68.1% 0.99× 1.49
Tigre clean sheet 36.8% 32.8% 31.9% 1.03× 3.05
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre clean sheet in 1st half 65.1% 70.1% 1.43
Tigre to concede in 1st half 34.9% 29.9% 3.34
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 6.5 corners 81.9% 80.9% 1.24
Tigre over 2.5 corners 74.6% 72.4% 1.38
Tigre under 5.5 corners 71.6% 72.3% 1.38
Tigre over 3.5 corners 58.0% 56.9% 1.76
Tigre under 4.5 corners 58.1% 56.9% 1.76
Tigre under 3.5 corners 42.0% 43.1% 2.32
Tigre over 4.5 corners 41.9% 43.1% 2.32
Tigre over 5.5 corners 28.4% 27.7% 3.61
Tigre under 2.5 corners 25.4% 27.7% 3.62
Tigre over 6.5 corners 18.1% 19.1% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 3.5 goals 98.3% 97.6% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Tigre under 2.5 goals 92.7% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Tigre under 1.5 goals 75.1% 76.2% 78.2% 0.97× 1.31
Tigre over 0.5 goals 61.7% 62.9% 57.6% 1.09× 1.59
Tigre under 0.5 goals 38.3% 37.1% 42.4% 0.87× 2.70
Tigre over 1.5 goals 24.9% 23.8% 21.8% 1.09× 4.20
Tigre over 2.5 goals 7.3% 7.7% 6.7% 1.15× 13.07
Tigre over 3.5 goals 1.7% 2.4% 1.1% 2.13× 40.89
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre under 1.5 in 1st half 94.3% 94.2% 1.06
Tigre under 0.5 in 1st half 68.1% 68.3% 1.46
Tigre over 0.5 in 1st half 31.9% 31.7% 3.16
Tigre over 1.5 in 1st half 5.7% 5.8% 17.23
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata (away no bet) 52.2% 51.3% 57.7% 0.89× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 47.8% 48.8% 42.3% 1.15× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre even goals 57.3% 56.9% 58.4% 0.97× 1.76
Tigre odd goals 42.7% 43.1% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 93.8% 92.8% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 6.2% 7.2% 13.85
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 54.7% 50.8% 1.97
Not both halves under 1.5 45.3% 49.2% 2.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 39.0% 36.6% 2.73
Gimnasia La Plata to score 2+ in a row 21.5% 19.5% 5.13
Tigre to score 2+ in a row 20.1% 19.4% 5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row 10.3% 12.0% 8.30
Gimnasia La Plata to score 3+ in a row 5.5% 5.6% 17.92
Tigre to score 3+ in a row 4.9% 2.7% 37.45
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata corners (+3.5) 86.9% 84.2% 1.19
Gimnasia La Plata corners (+2.5) 80.2% 80.0% 1.25
Tigre corners (+3.5) 79.8% 75.5% 1.33
Gimnasia La Plata corners (+1.5) 71.5% 69.9% 1.43
Tigre corners (+2.5) 71.3% 69.9% 1.43
Tigre corners (+1.5) 61.2% 61.7% 1.62
Gimnasia La Plata corners (-1.5) 38.8% 38.3% 2.61
Gimnasia La Plata corners (-2.5) 28.7% 30.1% 3.32
Tigre corners (-1.5) 28.5% 30.1% 3.32
Gimnasia La Plata corners (-3.5) 20.2% 24.5% 4.08
Tigre corners (-2.5) 19.8% 20.0% 5.00
Tigre corners (-3.5) 13.1% 15.8% 6.32
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.4% 40.6% 2.46
9-11 corners 28.9% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 24.7% 26.3% 3.80
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 82.2% 79.8% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 75.3% 76.6% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 66.9% 67.9% 1.47
Over 7.5 corners 64.6% 62.7% 1.60
Under 9.5 corners 57.1% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.6% 52.2% 1.91
Under 8.5 corners 46.4% 47.8% 2.09
Over 9.5 corners 42.9% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 35.4% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 33.1% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 24.7% 23.4% 4.27
Over 12.5 corners 17.8% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 14.5% 11.5% 14.8% 0.77× 8.73
1-0 13.7% 11.5% 14.2% 0.81× 8.73
1-1 13.9% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
0-1 13.1% 11.5% 10.3% 1.11× 8.73
2-0 7.0% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.47
2-1 6.8% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.47
0-2 6.5% 7.4% 4.5% 1.66× 13.47
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.47
0-3 2.1% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.51
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.52
1-3 2.1% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.51
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.52
2-2 3.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.51
2-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.52
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 14.90× 58.52
3-0 2.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.51
3-1 2.2% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.51
3-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.52
3-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 14.90× 58.52
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.52
4-1 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.52
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.52
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.52
Any other score 0.7% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata leading at HT (DNB) 53.4% 55.7% 1.79
Tigre leading at HT (DNB) 46.6% 44.3% 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata or Tigre (12) 68.0% 69.6% 69.4% 1.00× 1.44
Gimnasia La Plata or draw (1X) 67.1% 69.6% 72.2% 0.96× 1.44
Tigre or draw (X2) 65.0% 63.6% 58.3% 1.09× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata or draw at HT 77.7% 79.9% 1.25
Tigre or draw at HT 74.4% 74.6% 1.34
Gimnasia La Plata or Tigre at HT 47.9% 52.3% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata or draw (1UP) 67.1% 75.7% 1.32
Tigre or draw (1UP) 65.0% 71.8% 1.39
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre or draw in 2nd half 71.9% 73.6% 1.36
Gimnasia La Plata or draw in 2nd half 71.5% 73.6% 1.36
Gimnasia La Plata or Tigre in 2nd half 56.6% 58.7% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 72.5% 71.0% 1.41
Neither half drawn 27.5% 29.0% 3.45
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata (DNB) 51.6% 50.9% 60.1% 0.85× 1.96
Tigre (DNB) 48.4% 49.1% 39.9% 1.23× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata to score first 43.6% 41.9% 2.39
Tigre to score first 41.9% 41.8% 2.40
No goal scored 14.5% 10.7% 9.37
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 60.6% 56.5% 59.5% 0.95× 1.77
Both teams to score 39.4% 43.5% 40.5% 1.08× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 54.9% 47.1% 52.9% 0.89× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 25.4% 33.6% 27.2% 1.24× 2.98
Both score & under 2.5 13.9% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 5.8% 8.4% 6.8% 1.24× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 93.4% 89.1% 94.2% 0.95× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 6.6% 10.9% 5.8% 1.86× 9.19
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 80.9% 72.4% 1.38
Both teams to score in 2nd half 19.1% 27.6% 3.63
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 71.8% 67.7% 1.48
Both score 2nd half only 17.0% 15.8% 6.35
Both score 1st half only 9.1% 6.8% 14.69
Both score in both halves 2.1% 4.8% 20.70
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 88.8% 86.1% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 11.2% 13.9% 7.18
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 61.9% 58.6% 1.71
A goal in each half 38.1% 41.4% 2.42
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.1% 47.4% 47.4% 1.00× 2.11
0-1 goals 41.4% 42.1% 39.1% 1.08× 2.38
4-6 goals 13.1% 16.9% 13.3% 1.27× 5.90
7+ goals 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 3.95× 55.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre to score exactly 0 38.3% 36.0% 42.4% 0.85× 2.78
Tigre to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Tigre to score exactly 2 17.6% 19.5% 15.3% 1.28× 5.12
Tigre to score 3+ 7.3% 8.5% 6.7% 1.27× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata to score exactly 0 36.8% 35.6% 31.9% 1.12× 2.81
Gimnasia La Plata to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Gimnasia La Plata to score exactly 2 18.4% 18.9% 21.8% 0.87× 5.30
Gimnasia La Plata to score 3+ 8.0% 10.3% 10.0% 1.03× 9.71
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 52.1% 47.7% 2.10
Gimnasia La Plata leading at HT 25.6% 25.4% 3.94
Tigre leading at HT 22.3% 20.1% 4.97
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata -1: 2 65.0% 62.5% 1.60
Gimnasia La Plata -1: X 21.6% 23.6% 4.24
Gimnasia La Plata -1: 1 13.4% 13.9% 7.17
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:1) 65.0% 61.4% 58.3% 1.05× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 21.6% 24.3% 24.3% 1.00× 4.12
Gimnasia La Plata (0:1) 13.4% 13.9% 17.5% 0.79× 7.22
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:2) 86.6% 86.9% 82.5% 1.05× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 9.6% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.94
Gimnasia La Plata (0:2) 3.8% 3.8% 5.0% 0.75× 26.51
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:3) 96.2% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.08
Gimnasia La Plata (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.17
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (0:4) 99.1% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.53
Gimnasia La Plata (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.60
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata (1:0) 67.1% 69.9% 72.2% 0.97× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 20.7% 21.7% 18.7% 1.16× 4.60
Tigre (1:0) 12.2% 12.8% 9.2% 1.40× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata (2:0) 87.8% 88.4% 90.8% 0.97× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.8% 6.4% 6.3% 1.02× 15.51
Tigre (2:0) 3.4% 2.3% 3.0% 0.76× 44.29
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 43.1% 47.5% 2.10
Halves equal 31.2% 29.4% 3.40
1st half highest scoring 25.7% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata to concede 61.7% 63.4% 57.6% 1.10× 1.58
Gimnasia La Plata clean sheet 38.3% 36.6% 42.4% 0.86× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata clean sheet in 1st half 68.1% 68.6% 1.46
Gimnasia La Plata to concede in 1st half 31.9% 31.4% 3.19
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata over 2.5 corners 80.1% 81.3% 1.23
Gimnasia La Plata under 6.5 corners 75.4% 76.1% 1.31
Gimnasia La Plata over 3.5 corners 65.4% 67.7% 1.48
Gimnasia La Plata under 5.5 corners 64.0% 62.0% 1.61
Gimnasia La Plata over 4.5 corners 50.0% 53.0% 1.89
Gimnasia La Plata under 4.5 corners 50.0% 47.0% 2.13
Gimnasia La Plata over 5.5 corners 36.0% 38.0% 2.63
Gimnasia La Plata under 3.5 corners 34.6% 32.3% 3.10
Gimnasia La Plata over 6.5 corners 24.6% 23.9% 4.19
Gimnasia La Plata under 2.5 corners 19.9% 18.7% 5.35
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata under 3.5 goals 98.1% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Gimnasia La Plata under 2.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 90.0% 1.02× 1.08
Gimnasia La Plata under 1.5 goals 73.6% 74.2% 68.3% 1.09× 1.35
Gimnasia La Plata over 0.5 goals 63.2% 63.4% 68.1% 0.93× 1.58
Gimnasia La Plata under 0.5 goals 36.8% 36.6% 31.9% 1.15× 2.74
Gimnasia La Plata over 1.5 goals 26.4% 25.8% 31.7% 0.81× 3.88
Gimnasia La Plata over 2.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 10.0% 0.78× 12.92
Gimnasia La Plata over 3.5 goals 1.9% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.50
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 95.4% 1.05
Gimnasia La Plata under 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 68.7% 1.46
Gimnasia La Plata over 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 31.3% 3.19
Gimnasia La Plata over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 4.6% 21.68
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre (home no bet) 50.7% 51.6% 47.5% 1.08× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 49.3% 48.4% 52.5% 0.92× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata even goals 56.8% 55.5% 55.7% 1.00× 1.80
Gimnasia La Plata odd goals 43.2% 44.5% 44.3% 1.01× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 44.4% 42.8% 2.34
HT 1-0 19.0% 18.8% 5.32
HT 0-1 16.9% 18.8% 5.33
HT 1-1 7.4% 7.1% 14.17
HT 2-0 4.1% 2.3% 43.76
HT 0-2 3.3% 2.3% 43.82
Any other HT score 1.7% 2.3% 43.95
HT 1-2 1.4% 2.3% 43.97
HT 2-1 1.6% 2.3% 43.95
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.3% 44.05
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 23.0% 21.8% 4.59
Gimnasia La Plata at HT / Gimnasia La Plata at FT 19.3% 16.8% 5.94
Tigre at HT / Tigre at FT 16.8% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Tigre at FT 14.6% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Gimnasia La Plata at FT 14.4% 12.7% 7.89
Gimnasia La Plata at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% 28.80
Tigre at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.82
Gimnasia La Plata at HT / Tigre at FT 1.5% 3.5% 28.93
Tigre at HT / Gimnasia La Plata at FT 1.3% 3.5% 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata to score last 43.6% 40.4% 2.48
Tigre to score last 41.9% 40.3% 2.48
No goal scored 14.5% 10.1% 9.93
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 85.5% 90.2% 1.11
Gimnasia La Plata to lead by 1 at any time 47.9% 44.1% 2.27
Tigre to lead by 1 at any time 46.0% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 32.7% 29.3% 3.41
Gimnasia La Plata to lead by 2 at any time 17.1% 15.0% 6.68
Tigre to lead by 2 at any time 15.7% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.8% 6.6% 15.16
Gimnasia La Plata to lead by 3 at any time 4.7% 1.6% 61.79
Tigre to lead by 3 at any time 4.1% 1.6% 62.33
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata most corners 50.0% 46.9% 2.13
Tigre most corners 38.8% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 11.2% 10.6% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.0% 83.5% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 80.6% 83.5% 80.0% 1.04× 1.20
1-3 goals 72.0% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
2-6 goals 58.2% 59.2% 60.6% 0.98× 1.69
2-5 goals 57.1% 59.2% 60.0% 0.99× 1.69
1-2 goals 54.3% 53.2% 51.5% 1.03× 1.88
2-4 goals 53.8% 53.2% 55.7% 0.95× 1.88
2-3 goals 45.1% 48.7% 47.4% 1.03× 2.06
3-6 goals 30.8% 35.4% 33.5% 1.06× 2.83
3-5 goals 29.7% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
3-4 goals 26.3% 30.2% 28.7% 1.05× 3.31
4-6 goals 13.1% 14.9% 13.3% 1.12× 6.72
4-5 goals 12.0% 14.9% 12.7% 1.17× 6.73
5-6 goals 4.5% 2.5% 4.9% 0.52× 39.31
7+ goals 0.4% 2.5% 0.5% 5.52× 39.50
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Gimnasia La Plata never behind 39.5% 44.7% 2.24
Tigre never behind 37.6% 44.5% 2.25
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.2% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.8% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 60.0% 57.7% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 40.0% 42.3% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.3% 59.0% 1.70
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.7% 41.0% 2.44
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 98.5% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 95.1% 95.5% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 86.5% 87.6% 86.4% 1.01× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 85.5% 87.6% 85.2% 1.03× 1.14
Under 2.5 goals 68.8% 66.2% 66.2% 1.00× 1.51
Over 1.5 goals 58.6% 58.8% 60.9% 0.97× 1.70
Under 1.5 goals 41.4% 41.2% 39.1% 1.05× 2.43
Over 2.5 goals 31.2% 33.8% 33.8% 1.00× 2.96
Under 0.5 goals 14.5% 12.4% 14.8% 0.84× 8.09
Over 3.5 goals 13.5% 12.4% 13.6% 0.91× 8.09
Over 4.5 goals 4.9% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.21
Over 5.5 goals 1.5% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.27
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.6% 97.3% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.4% 97.3% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 94.6% 92.5% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 83.6% 81.1% 82.9% 0.98× 1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 57.0% 55.5% 53.6% 1.04× 1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 43.0% 44.5% 46.4% 0.96× 2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 16.4% 18.9% 17.1% 1.11× 5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 5.4% 7.5% 5.8% 1.31× 13.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.6% 2.7% 1.1% 2.55× 36.37
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.4% 2.7% 0.5% 5.95× 36.41
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 95.1% 95.8% 1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half 80.3% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 55.6% 63.5% 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 44.4% 36.5% 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 19.7% 13.7% 7.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half 4.9% 4.2% 23.82
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 89.1% 85.4% 1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 68.1% 67.1% 1.49
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 68.0% 67.1% 1.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 32.0% 32.9% 3.04
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 31.9% 32.9% 3.04
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 10.9% 14.6% 6.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre not to score in both halves 86.1% 85.9% 1.16
Gimnasia La Plata not to score in both halves 84.8% 84.5% 1.18
Gimnasia La Plata to score in both halves 15.2% 15.5% 6.45
Tigre to score in both halves 13.9% 14.1% 7.11
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 39.4% 39.9% 40.5% 0.99× 2.51
Only Gimnasia La Plata scores 23.8% 22.4% 27.8% 0.81× 4.47
Only Tigre scores 22.3% 22.3% 17.2% 1.30× 4.48
Neither team scores 14.5% 11.0% 14.8% 0.74× 9.13
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.4% 24.9% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 26.8% 24.9% 24.4% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 17.7% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 14.5% 12.1% 14.8% 0.82× 8.28
Exactly 4 goals 8.6% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 3.4% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.69
6 or more goals 1.5% 4.4% 1.0% 4.27× 22.72
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.2% 40.0% 2.50
No goals in 2nd half 32.0% 33.6% 2.97
2+ goals in 2nd half 31.9% 33.6% 2.98
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre not to win both halves 93.6% 94.0% 1.06
Gimnasia La Plata not to win both halves 92.8% 94.0% 1.06
Gimnasia La Plata to win both halves 7.2% 6.0% 16.61
Tigre to win both halves 6.4% 6.0% 16.68
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre to win neither half 55.6% 59.4% 1.68
Gimnasia La Plata to win neither half 53.5% 55.0% 1.82
Gimnasia La Plata to win either half 46.5% 45.0% 2.22
Tigre to win either half 44.4% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tigre not to win to nil 77.7% 78.0% 82.8% 0.94× 1.28
Gimnasia La Plata not to win to nil 76.2% 78.0% 72.2% 1.08× 1.28
Gimnasia La Plata to win to nil 23.8% 22.0% 27.8% 0.79× 4.55
Tigre to win to nil 22.3% 22.0% 17.2% 1.28× 4.55
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.0% 27.6% 30.6% 0.90× 3.62
Gimnasia La Plata by 1 21.6% 24.1% 24.3% 0.99× 4.14
Tigre by 1 20.7% 24.1% 18.7% 1.29× 4.14
Gimnasia La Plata by 2 9.6% 7.3% 12.6% 0.57× 13.79
Tigre by 2 8.8% 7.3% 6.3% 1.15× 13.79
Gimnasia La Plata by 3+ 3.8% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 37.01
Tigre by 3+ 3.4% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 37.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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