Girona v Alaves — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 8 November 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 10
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.59
Goals − xG
-0.26 – -2.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
21.9%
Draw
26.6%
Alaves win
51.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Alaves are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDWWLWDWW last 10
scored 18
from 15.5 xG
conceded 11
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.84–1.45 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.04–1.21 | 1-1 13% | 39% | 45% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.26 xGAlaves 2.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Alaves attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iván Martín |
| 11' |
 Alaves |
Antonio Blanco | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
Alaves |
Denis Suárez | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mariano |
| 15' |
Girona |
Viktor Tsygankov | 0.43 | Open Play | — | Goal | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 17' |
Alaves |
Victor Parada | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 19' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 23' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 30' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 33' |
Girona |
Arnau Martinez | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 44' |
Alaves |
Carles Aleñá | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Calebe |
| 46' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Youssef Lekhedim |
| 52' |
Alaves |
Abderrahmane Rebbach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 57' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Viktor Tsygankov |
| 60' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daley Blind |
| 74' |
Girona |
Cristhian Stuani | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 75' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 76' |
Alaves |
Antonio Martínez | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Alaves |
Youssef Lekhedim | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Alaves |
Diego Morcillo | 0.57 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
| 87' |
Alaves |
Pablo Ibáñez | 0.58 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Abderrahmane Rebbach |
| 90' |
Alaves |
Nahuel Tenaglia | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pablo Ibáñez |
| 93' |
Alaves |
Jon Guridi | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Vicente |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnau Martinez DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| Iván Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.59 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Viktor Tsygankov MR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.43 | 0.14 | 0.62 |
| Axel Witsel MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra ML | 64 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.43 | 0.53 |
| Joel Roca Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Abel Ruiz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Rincón Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Alaves
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Martínez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Nahuel Tenaglia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Antonio Blanco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 1.22 |
| Victor Parada DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Jonny DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Antonio Sivera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Youssef Lekhedim DL | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.60 |
| Denis Suárez MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
| Carles Aleñá ML | 47 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Mariano FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Calebe MR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.49 |
| Jon Guridi Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Abderrahmane Rebbach Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.58 | 0.02 |
| Carlos Vicente Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| Diego Morcillo Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Pablo Ibáñez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.11 | 0.11 |