Girona v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 26 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 20
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.17
Goals − xG
-1.08 – -0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Girona win
30.7%
Draw
22.8%
Espanyol win
46.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Espanyol are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLWWDWLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 11
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.10–1.44 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.30 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Girona 1.08 xGEspanyol 0.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Girona attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 4' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 6' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 7' |
 Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Moreno |
| 9' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Iván Martín |
| 11' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Espanyol |
Roberto Fernández | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 14' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Roberto Fernández |
| 23' |
Espanyol |
Clemens Riedel | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pol Lozano |
| 27' |
Espanyol |
Tyrhys Dolan | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Javi Puado |
| 28' |
Espanyol |
Clemens Riedel | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pere Milla |
| 32' |
Girona |
Axel Witsel | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Alejandro Francés |
| 37' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 40' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vladyslav Vanat |
| 51' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 56' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Hugo Rincón |
| 58' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pere Milla |
| 65' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar El Hilali |
| 66' |
Espanyol |
Fernando Calero | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pere Milla |
| 67' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Javi Puado |
| 72' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 81' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 88' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 91' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daley Blind |
| 91' |
Girona |
Álex Moreno | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Álex Moreno DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Iván Martín MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.27 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.31 |
| Axel Witsel MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.59 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| Alejandro Francés DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| Portu FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Hugo Rincón DMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Yáser Asprilla Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cristhian Stuani Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arnau Martinez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Fernández FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.36 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.04 | 0.28 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Clemens Riedel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.21 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.24 |
| Pere Milla ML | 86 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 0.29 | 0.16 | 0.44 |
| Javi Puado FW | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Tyrhys Dolan MR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.18 | 0.48 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Edu Expósito Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike García Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |