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Girona v Sevilla — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 18 January 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–2
1.14 – 3.09 xG
Shots
7 – 14
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 11
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.42 – 1.53
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -1.29
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.82.83.70'15'30'45'60'75'90'Arnau Martinez 35' — goalSaúl Ñíguez 58' — goalDodi Lukebakio 87' — goal
Girona 1.14 xGSevilla 3.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Isaac Romero 2' — Saved Shot (0.74 xG, )Ruben Vargas 12' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Ruben Vargas 12' — Missed Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 14' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Bryan Gil Salvatierra 16' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Adrià Pedrosa 16' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Abel Ruiz 26' — Saved Shot (0.48 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 34' — Saved Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Arnau Martinez 35' — Goal (0.39 xG, From Corner)Saúl Ñíguez 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Dodi Lukebakio 48' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Ruben Vargas 49' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Saúl Ñíguez 58' — Saved Shot (0.14 xG, From Corner)Saúl Ñíguez 58' — Goal (0.58 xG, From Corner)Arnau Martinez 61' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)José Ángel Carmona 63' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Cristhian Stuani 78' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Kike Salas 81' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 87' — Goal (0.42 xG, Open Play)Cristhian Stuani 94' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Cristhian Stuani 95' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Girona attacking right Sevilla attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Sevilla Isaac Romero 0.74 Left Foot Saved Shot
12' Sevilla Ruben Vargas 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Isaac Romero
12' Sevilla Ruben Vargas 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
14' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Ruben Vargas
16' Girona Bryan Gil Salvatierra 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Daley Blind
16' Sevilla Adrià Pedrosa 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ørjan Nyland
26' Girona Abel Ruiz 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Iván Martín
34' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.40 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Isaac Romero
35' Girona Arnau Martinez 0.39 From Corner Goal Viktor Tsygankov
47' Sevilla Saúl Ñíguez 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Ruben Vargas
48' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Saúl Ñíguez
49' Sevilla Ruben Vargas 0.05 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Dodi Lukebakio
58' Sevilla Saúl Ñíguez 0.14 From Corner Saved Shot Dodi Lukebakio
58' Sevilla Saúl Ñíguez 0.58 From Corner Right Foot Goal
61' Girona Arnau Martinez 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yáser Asprilla
63' Sevilla José Ángel Carmona 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
78' Girona Cristhian Stuani 0.03 From Corner Saved Shot Jhon Solis
81' Sevilla Kike Salas 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
87' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Goal Saúl Ñíguez
94' Girona Cristhian Stuani 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
95' Girona Cristhian Stuani 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Girona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Arnau Martinez DR 90 1 0 2 0 0.46 0.00 0.09
Bryan Gil Salvatierra AML 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.02
Ladislav Krejcí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Paulo Gazzaniga GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Iván Martín DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.48 0.50
Viktor Tsygankov AMR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.39 0.02
David López DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Daley Blind DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.09
Yáser Asprilla AMC 72 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.09
Oriol Romeu DMC 72 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Abel Ruiz FW 71 0 0 1 0 0.48 0.00 0.48
Cristhian Stuani Sub 19 0 0 3 0 0.18 0.00 0.15
Jhon Solis Sub 18 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.00
Donny van de Beek Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Portu Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Sevilla

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Dodi Lukebakio AMR 90 1 0 4 2 0.96 0.18 0.96
Saúl Ñíguez AMC 90 1 1 3 2 0.74 0.50 0.79
José Ángel Carmona DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.33
Nemanja Gudelj DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.46
Loic Bade DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Djibril Sow DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Ørjan Nyland GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Albert Sambi Lokonga DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Isaac Romero FW 85 0 0 1 2 0.74 0.70 0.70
Ruben Vargas AML 74 0 0 3 2 0.76 0.08 0.77
Adrià Pedrosa DL 74 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Kike Salas Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.44
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Chidera Ejuke Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.42
Juanlu Sanchez Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucien Agoume Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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