Goztepe v Çorum FK — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 October 2026 · TUR-Super Lig · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 9.6%
- 1-1 9.4%
- 2-0 8.2%
- 3-1 7.4%
- 3-0 6.3%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 67.2% | Under 2.5 | 32.8% |
| BTTS yes | 63.0% | BTTS no | 37.0% |
| Goztepe 1+ | 89.9% | Goztepe 2+ | 66.7% |
| Çorum FK 1+ | 69.0% | Çorum FK 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 2.29 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Goztepe carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1471.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 45/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Çorum FK have only 3 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Goztepe have an estimated 61.5% win probability, against 21.2% for the draw and 17.4% for Çorum FK. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.29 for Goztepe and 1.17 for Çorum FK.
Why Goztepe
Goztepe carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1471.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 21.2%. Draws run at 26% in this competition.
Why Çorum FK can win
Nothing in the data singles out Çorum FK.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Goztepe, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Çorum FK, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Goztepe: 38% possession, 17.2 shots a match, 18.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Çorum FK: 53% possession, 11.7 shots a match, 20.7 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Goztepe's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Goztepe are the model's most likely outcome at 61.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.6%. Confidence 66/100, data quality 45/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 2.33–1.11 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 62% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.