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Granada v Albacete — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Granada win
44.2%
model 43.2%
Draw
27.5%
model 25.1%
Albacete win
28.3%
model 31.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.9%
  2. 1-0 10.5%
  3. 2-1 8.9%
  4. 0-1 8.7%
  5. 1-2 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.549.8% Under 2.550.2%
BTTS yes53.5% BTTS no46.5%
Granada 1+76.7% Granada 2+42.8%
Albacete 1+70.1% Albacete 2+34.0%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.21. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
55/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
100%
★ Best pick
2-6 goals
Multi goal · usually 68%
73.6% fair odds 1.36
moderate signal · 2590 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.3% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Granada.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Granada have an estimated 44.2% win probability, against 28.3% for Albacete and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.46 for Granada and 1.21 for Albacete.

Why Granada

Nothing in the data singles out Granada.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.46 to 1.21. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Albacete can win

Nothing in the data singles out Albacete.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Granada, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Albacete, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Granada: 48% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 13.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Albacete: 47% possession, 13.8 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Granada are the model's most likely outcome at 44.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.9%. Confidence 55/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.46–1.21 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.45–1.20 1-1 12% 49% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to win 43.3% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.32
Albacete to win 31.5% 30.3% 28.1% 1.08× 3.30
Draw 25.2% 27.9% 26.6% 1.05× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada & not both score 23.4% 21.9% 23.7% 0.93× 4.57
Granada & both teams score 19.9% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 17.9% 17.6% 1.02× 5.58
Albacete & not both score 16.7% 17.9% 13.5% 1.33× 5.58
Albacete & both teams score 14.9% 13.3% 14.7% 0.90× 7.54
Draw & not both score 6.7% 8.4% 9.1% 0.92× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada & over 1.5 32.7% 30.9% 32.5% 0.95× 3.24
Granada & under 3.5 30.5% 30.9% 32.3% 0.96× 3.24
Granada & over 2.5 25.3% 26.0% 26.2% 0.99× 3.84
Albacete & under 3.5 23.2% 21.7% 19.7% 1.10× 4.62
Albacete & over 1.5 22.7% 21.7% 19.5% 1.11× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.7% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Granada & under 2.5 18.0% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 17.6% 1.02× 5.56
Albacete & over 2.5 17.7% 18.0% 16.6% 1.08× 5.56
Albacete & under 2.5 13.9% 12.9% 11.6% 1.11× 7.77
Granada & over 3.5 12.7% 12.9% 13.2% 0.97× 7.77
Granada & under 1.5 10.6% 12.9% 13.0% 0.99× 7.77
Albacete & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 8.7% 0.90× 12.69
Albacete & over 3.5 8.3% 7.9% 8.5% 0.92× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.7% 7.9% 9.1% 0.86× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.5% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.5% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (1UP) 58.8% 58.2% 1.72
Albacete (1UP) 48.5% 43.3% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (2UP) 43.3% 47.7% 2.10
Albacete (2UP) 31.5% 30.8% 3.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.7% 36.0% 2.78
Granada to win 2nd half 35.3% 36.0% 2.78
Albacete to win 2nd half 29.0% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (+2.5) 92.0% 92.1% 92.3% 1.00× 1.09
Albacete (+1.5) 79.2% 78.4% 80.4% 0.98× 1.28
Granada (+0.5) 68.5% 68.7% 71.9% 0.96× 1.46
Albacete (+0.5) 56.7% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.75
Granada (-0.5) 43.3% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Albacete (-0.5) 31.5% 31.3% 28.1% 1.11× 3.20
Granada (-1.5) 20.8% 21.6% 19.6% 1.10× 4.64
Granada (-2.5) 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.63
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to concede 76.6% 79.0% 77.5% 1.02× 1.27
Albacete clean sheet 23.4% 21.0% 22.5% 0.93× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to concede in 1st half 46.5% 50.7% 1.97
Albacete clean sheet in 1st half 53.5% 49.3% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 6.5 corners 81.9% 81.5% 1.23
Albacete over 2.5 corners 76.2% 75.9% 1.32
Albacete under 5.5 corners 71.2% 71.6% 1.40
Albacete over 3.5 corners 59.6% 57.1% 1.75
Albacete under 4.5 corners 57.0% 57.1% 1.75
Albacete over 4.5 corners 43.0% 42.9% 2.33
Albacete under 3.5 corners 40.4% 42.9% 2.33
Albacete over 5.5 corners 28.8% 28.4% 3.52
Albacete under 2.5 corners 23.8% 24.1% 4.16
Albacete over 6.5 corners 18.1% 18.5% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 3.5 goals 96.6% 97.5% 97.0% 1.01× 1.03
Albacete under 2.5 goals 88.0% 87.9% 89.2% 0.99× 1.14
Albacete over 0.5 goals 69.9% 68.0% 67.3% 1.01× 1.47
Albacete under 1.5 goals 66.3% 67.9% 69.5% 0.98× 1.47
Albacete over 1.5 goals 33.7% 32.1% 30.5% 1.05× 3.12
Albacete under 0.5 goals 30.2% 32.0% 32.7% 0.98× 3.12
Albacete over 2.5 goals 12.0% 12.1% 10.8% 1.12× 8.26
Albacete over 3.5 goals 3.4% 2.5% 3.0% 0.81× 40.70
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete under 1.5 in 1st half 91.6% 94.1% 1.06
Albacete under 0.5 in 1st half 61.9% 64.1% 1.56
Albacete over 0.5 in 1st half 38.1% 35.9% 2.79
Albacete over 1.5 in 1st half 8.4% 5.9% 17.08
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (away no bet) 63.2% 62.1% 63.1% 0.98× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 36.8% 37.9% 36.9% 1.03× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete even goals 54.5% 52.8% 54.7% 0.97× 1.89
Albacete odd goals 45.5% 47.2% 45.3% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 86.1% 87.6% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 13.9% 12.4% 8.06
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 62.0% 58.0% 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 38.0% 42.0% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.2% 51.4% 1.95
Granada to score 2+ in a row 34.5% 29.1% 3.44
Albacete to score 2+ in a row 25.5% 25.0% 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.5% 16.4% 6.11
Granada to score 3+ in a row 11.7% 12.2% 8.23
Albacete to score 3+ in a row 7.0% 5.6% 17.72
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada corners (+3.5) 90.6% 89.6% 1.12
Granada corners (+2.5) 85.3% 84.5% 1.18
Granada corners (+1.5) 78.1% 74.9% 1.34
Albacete corners (+3.5) 72.1% 70.7% 1.41
Albacete corners (+2.5) 62.6% 61.9% 1.62
Albacete corners (+1.5) 52.0% 52.5% 1.91
Granada corners (-1.5) 48.0% 47.5% 2.10
Granada corners (-2.5) 37.4% 38.1% 2.63
Granada corners (-3.5) 27.9% 29.3% 3.42
Albacete corners (-1.5) 21.9% 25.1% 3.98
Albacete corners (-2.5) 14.7% 15.5% 6.45
Albacete corners (-3.5) 9.4% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 36.2% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 33.3% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.6% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 75.0% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 73.9% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.7% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 63.8% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 57.2% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.2% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 46.8% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 42.8% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 36.2% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 33.3% 32.3% 3.09
Under 7.5 corners 26.1% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.0% 27.4% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.0% 11.5% 11.3% 1.02× 8.73
1-0 10.6% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.73
0-1 8.8% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.48
2-1 8.9% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.48
0-0 6.7% 7.4% 9.1% 0.81× 13.48
1-2 7.4% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.48
2-0 7.4% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.48
0-2 5.1% 7.4% 2.9% 2.52× 13.48
2-2 5.4% 7.4% 5.7% 1.31× 13.48
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.48
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.49
1-3 2.9% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.47
1-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.8% 2.03× 58.48
2-3 2.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.48
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.49
3-0 3.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.47
3-1 4.3% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.46
3-2 2.6% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.47
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.2% 8.13× 58.49
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.48
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.48
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.48
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 5.42× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.13× 58.49
Any other score 2.4% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada leading at HT (DNB) 58.4% 57.9% 1.73
Albacete leading at HT (DNB) 41.6% 42.1% 2.38
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or Albacete (12) 74.8% 72.1% 73.4% 0.98× 1.39
Granada or draw (1X) 68.5% 69.7% 71.9% 0.97× 1.44
Albacete or draw (X2) 56.7% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or draw at HT 76.6% 79.8% 1.25
Albacete or draw at HT 67.1% 66.4% 1.51
Granada or Albacete at HT 56.3% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or draw (1UP) 68.5% 76.0% 1.32
Albacete or draw (1UP) 56.7% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada or draw in 2nd half 71.0% 73.7% 1.36
Albacete or draw in 2nd half 64.7% 64.0% 1.56
Granada or Albacete in 2nd half 64.3% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.2% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 35.8% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (DNB) 57.9% 58.3% 61.8% 0.94× 1.72
Albacete (DNB) 42.1% 41.7% 38.2% 1.09× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to score first 51.1% 53.8% 1.86
Albacete to score first 42.2% 41.8% 2.40
No goal scored 6.7% 7.5% 13.35
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.2% 51.4% 53.9% 0.95× 1.95
Not both teams to score 46.8% 48.6% 46.1% 1.05× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 41.2% 41.6% 42.8% 0.97× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 38.6% 38.5% 39.9% 0.97× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.0% 12.3% 11.3% 1.10× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.2% 8.4% 6.3% 1.33× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.6% 85.6% 85.7% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.4% 14.4% 14.3% 1.01× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 71.2% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 28.8% 26.0% 3.85
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 58.7% 59.5% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 23.7% 20.9% 4.80
Both score 1st half only 12.5% 10.8% 9.30
Both score in both halves 5.1% 6.7% 14.86
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.4% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.6% 17.6% 5.68
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 52.5% 53.4% 1.87
A half without a goal 47.5% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.4% 47.4% 41.4% 1.14× 2.11
0-1 goals 26.1% 26.4% 30.7% 0.86× 3.78
4-6 goals 25.6% 26.4% 26.5% 1.00× 3.78
7+ goals 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.16× 54.61
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete to score exactly 1 36.2% 36.0% 36.9% 0.97× 2.78
Albacete to score exactly 0 30.2% 33.8% 32.7% 1.03× 2.96
Albacete to score exactly 2 21.7% 22.4% 19.8% 1.13× 4.46
Albacete to score 3+ 12.0% 12.8% 10.8% 1.18× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to score exactly 1 34.0% 32.7% 35.6% 0.92× 3.06
Granada to score exactly 2 24.7% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.30
Granada to score exactly 0 23.4% 23.2% 22.5% 1.03× 4.30
Granada to score 3+ 17.9% 18.9% 17.0% 1.11× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.7% 43.2% 2.32
Granada leading at HT 32.9% 33.6% 2.98
Albacete leading at HT 23.4% 20.2% 4.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada -1: 2 56.7% 56.7% 1.77
Granada -1: X 22.5% 23.6% 4.24
Granada -1: 1 20.8% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (0:1) 56.7% 55.8% 54.6% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 22.5% 24.3% 26.0% 0.93× 4.12
Granada (0:1) 20.8% 24.3% 19.6% 1.24× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (0:2) 79.2% 79.5% 80.4% 0.99× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.8% 11.0% 12.0% 0.91× 9.12
Granada (0:2) 8.0% 7.7% 7.7% 1.01× 12.94
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (0:3) 92.0% 92.6% 92.3% 1.00× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.5% 5.8% 5.4% 1.08× 17.19
Granada (0:3) 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 0.98× 42.15
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (0:4) 97.5% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.8% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.47
Granada (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 0.4% 2.84× 83.61
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (1:0) 68.5% 70.0% 71.9% 0.97× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.6% 17.0% 18.0% 0.95× 5.87
Albacete (1:0) 12.9% 12.8% 10.2% 1.26× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada (2:0) 87.1% 88.4% 89.8% 0.98× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.7% 6.5% 7.0% 0.92× 15.47
Albacete (2:0) 4.2% 2.3% 3.3% 0.70× 44.10
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.8% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.3% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.9% 24.1% 4.14
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to concede 69.9% 66.6% 67.3% 0.99× 1.50
Granada clean sheet 30.2% 33.4% 32.7% 1.02× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada clean sheet in 1st half 61.9% 64.1% 1.56
Granada to concede in 1st half 38.1% 35.9% 2.79
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada over 2.5 corners 87.9% 86.3% 1.16
Granada over 3.5 corners 76.6% 76.6% 1.31
Granada under 6.5 corners 64.0% 62.3% 1.61
Granada over 4.5 corners 63.0% 62.3% 1.61
Granada under 5.5 corners 51.1% 52.8% 1.90
Granada over 5.5 corners 48.9% 47.2% 2.12
Granada under 4.5 corners 37.0% 37.7% 2.65
Granada over 6.5 corners 36.0% 37.7% 2.65
Granada under 3.5 corners 23.4% 23.4% 4.27
Granada under 2.5 corners 12.1% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada under 3.5 goals 94.0% 92.3% 93.7% 0.98× 1.08
Granada under 2.5 goals 82.1% 82.1% 83.0% 0.99× 1.22
Granada over 0.5 goals 76.6% 77.7% 77.5% 1.00× 1.29
Granada under 1.5 goals 57.4% 58.8% 58.0% 1.01× 1.70
Granada over 1.5 goals 42.6% 41.2% 42.0% 0.98× 2.43
Granada under 0.5 goals 23.4% 22.3% 22.5% 0.99× 4.49
Granada over 2.5 goals 17.9% 17.9% 17.0% 1.05× 5.59
Granada over 3.5 goals 6.0% 7.7% 6.3% 1.23× 12.92
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada under 1.5 in 1st half 87.0% 89.7% 1.12
Granada over 0.5 in 1st half 46.5% 50.8% 1.97
Granada under 0.5 in 1st half 53.5% 49.2% 2.03
Granada over 1.5 in 1st half 13.0% 10.3% 9.73
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete (home no bet) 55.6% 56.7% 51.3% 1.10× 1.77
Draw (home no bet) 44.4% 43.3% 48.7% 0.89× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada even goals 52.7% 50.6% 51.8% 0.98× 1.98
Granada odd goals 47.3% 49.4% 48.2% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 33.1% 32.3% 3.09
HT 1-0 20.8% 24.1% 4.16
HT 0-1 16.0% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 9.9% 7.1% 14.01
HT 2-0 6.5% 7.1% 14.06
HT 0-2 3.8% 2.3% 43.33
Any other HT score 3.8% 2.3% 43.33
HT 2-1 3.1% 2.3% 43.38
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.3% 43.44
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.3% 43.56
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada at HT / Granada at FT 25.4% 26.7% 3.75
Albacete at HT / Albacete at FT 16.5% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Granada at FT 15.6% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 15.3% 16.7% 5.97
Draw at HT / Albacete at FT 12.9% 12.7% 7.89
Granada at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% 16.73
Albacete at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.78
Granada at HT / Albacete at FT 2.2% 3.5% 28.88
Albacete at HT / Granada at FT 2.3% 3.5% 28.87
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to score last 51.1% 51.9% 1.93
Albacete to score last 42.2% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 6.7% 7.5% 13.35
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.3% 92.6% 1.08
Granada to lead by 1 at any time 58.8% 55.1% 1.81
Albacete to lead by 1 at any time 48.5% 44.1% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.0% 43.9% 2.28
Granada to lead by 2 at any time 26.9% 25.4% 3.93
Albacete to lead by 2 at any time 18.3% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.5% 14.9% 6.72
Granada to lead by 3 at any time 9.9% 6.7% 14.94
Albacete to lead by 3 at any time 5.6% 6.6% 15.15
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada most corners 58.8% 55.5% 1.80
Albacete most corners 30.9% 34.3% 2.92
Corners level 10.3% 10.4% 9.62
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 88.0% 87.4% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.3% 83.5% 78.1% 1.07× 1.20
2-6 goals 72.0% 72.4% 67.8% 1.07× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.6% 69.0% 64.2% 1.07× 1.45
1-3 goals 65.7% 68.9% 63.0% 1.09× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.9% 63.4% 56.6% 1.12× 1.58
3-6 goals 47.6% 48.7% 47.5% 1.02× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.4% 48.7% 41.4% 1.17× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.2% 43.6% 44.0% 0.99× 2.30
1-2 goals 43.8% 43.6% 42.0% 1.04× 2.30
3-4 goals 36.5% 39.1% 36.3% 1.08× 2.56
4-6 goals 25.6% 30.2% 26.5% 1.14× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.2% 24.5% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.1% 14.9% 11.4% 1.31× 6.73
7+ goals 1.9% 2.5% 1.6% 1.62× 39.25
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada never behind 44.8% 48.4% 2.07
Albacete never behind 34.5% 35.8% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.8% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.2% 51.5% 0.95× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.4% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.6% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.0% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.0% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.7% 92.3% 94.8% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.3% 92.3% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 87.0% 87.6% 87.2% 1.01× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 73.9% 72.5% 69.3% 1.05× 1.38
Under 3.5 goals 72.5% 72.5% 72.0% 1.01× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 50.5% 52.5% 51.0% 1.03× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 49.5% 47.5% 49.0% 0.97× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 27.5% 27.5% 28.0% 0.98× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 26.1% 27.5% 30.7% 0.89× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 13.0% 12.4% 12.8% 0.96× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 6.7% 7.7% 9.1% 0.85× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 5.3% 7.7% 5.2% 1.50× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.0% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 94.3% 92.5% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.8% 81.1% 84.9% 0.96× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 65.5% 67.4% 61.5% 1.10× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 64.7% 62.1% 64.6% 0.96× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 35.3% 37.9% 35.4% 1.07× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 34.5% 32.6% 38.5% 0.85× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.2% 18.9% 15.1% 1.25× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.7% 7.5% 5.6% 1.35× 13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.0% 2.8% 1.6% 1.69× 36.17
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.0% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.8% 69.1% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 66.9% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 33.1% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.2% 30.9% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.0% 10.9% 9.15
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.7% 79.8% 1.25
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 78.8% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 54.3% 53.2% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 45.7% 46.8% 2.14
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 21.2% 20.2% 4.95
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 20.3% 20.2% 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to score in both halves 80.5% 84.2% 1.19
Granada not to score in both halves 73.8% 73.8% 1.35
Granada to score in both halves 26.2% 26.2% 3.82
Albacete to score in both halves 19.5% 15.8% 6.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.2% 53.9% 53.9% 1.00× 1.85
Only Granada scores 23.4% 22.3% 23.7% 0.94× 4.48
Only Albacete scores 16.7% 16.1% 13.5% 1.19× 6.22
Neither team scores 6.7% 7.2% 9.1% 0.79× 13.91
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.5% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 21.9% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 19.4% 17.4% 21.7% 0.80× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 14.5% 12.1% 15.2% 0.79× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 7.7% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 6.7% 7.6% 9.1% 0.84× 13.09
6 or more goals 5.3% 7.6% 5.2% 1.48× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 45.7% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 33.2% 33.5% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 21.2% 23.0% 4.34
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to win both halves 93.3% 94.0% 1.06
Granada not to win both halves 88.5% 87.9% 1.14
Granada to win both halves 11.5% 12.1% 8.29
Albacete to win both halves 6.7% 6.0% 16.58
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Granada to win either half 56.6% 59.4% 1.68
Albacete to win neither half 54.4% 55.0% 1.82
Albacete to win either half 45.6% 45.0% 2.22
Granada to win neither half 43.4% 40.6% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Albacete not to win to nil 83.3% 83.0% 86.5% 0.96× 1.20
Granada not to win to nil 76.6% 78.0% 76.3% 1.02× 1.28
Granada to win to nil 23.4% 22.0% 23.7% 0.93× 4.55
Albacete to win to nil 16.7% 17.0% 13.5% 1.26× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 25.2% 27.8% 26.6% 1.05× 3.59
Granada by 1 22.5% 24.1% 26.0% 0.93× 4.14
Albacete by 1 18.6% 16.9% 18.0% 0.94× 5.91
Granada by 2 12.8% 11.8% 12.0% 0.98× 8.47
Albacete by 2 8.7% 7.3% 7.0% 1.03× 13.78
Granada by 3+ 8.0% 7.3% 7.7% 0.95× 13.78
Albacete by 3+ 4.2% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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