Grêmio v Athletico-PR — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 6 Sep 2026, 02:06

Grêmio

14:00

Athletico-PR

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,268h before kick-off

Grêmio win

31.6%

model 31.0%

Draw

27.3%

model 28.6%

Athletico-PR win

41.1%

model 40.4%

322741

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.7%
0-1 9.0%
1-2 8.8%
0-0 8.5%
2-1 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	48.8%	Under 2.5	51.2%
BTTS yes	54.4%	BTTS no	45.6%
Grêmio 1+	70.2%	Grêmio 2+	34.2%
Athletico-PR 1+	75.7%	Athletico-PR 2+	41.3%

Expected goals 1.21 – 1.41. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Athletico-PR carry the stronger rating, 1613 Elo against 1475.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Athletico-PR have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for Grêmio and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.21 for Grêmio and 1.41 for Athletico-PR.

Why Grêmio

Nothing in the data singles out Grêmio.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.21 to 1.41. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Athletico-PR can win

Athletico-PR carry the stronger rating, 1613 Elo against 1475. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Grêmio, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Athletico-PR, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Grêmio: 49% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 20.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Athletico-PR: 46% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Athletico-PR are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	293041	1.08–1.34	1-1 14%	44%	50%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to win	41.2%	43.0%	24.0%	1.79×	2.33
Draw	29.9%	27.9%	27.2%	1.02×	3.59
Grêmio to win	29.0%	27.9%	48.9%	0.57×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR & not both score	23.6%	21.9%	13.9%	1.58×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.7%	17.9%	20.7%	0.87×	5.58
Athletico-PR & both teams score	17.5%	17.9%	10.4%	1.73×	5.58
Grêmio & not both score	16.1%	17.9%	28.0%	0.64×	5.59
Grêmio & both teams score	12.9%	13.3%	21.0%	0.63×	7.54
Draw & not both score	10.2%	13.3%	6.7%	1.98×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR & over 1.5	30.6%	30.8%	17.2%	1.79×	3.24
Athletico-PR & under 3.5	30.7%	30.8%	18.6%	1.66×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	20.2%	1.07×	4.62
Athletico-PR & over 2.5	22.6%	21.6%	13.2%	1.64×	4.62
Grêmio & under 3.5	22.4%	21.6%	36.8%	0.59×	4.62
Grêmio & over 1.5	20.6%	21.6%	36.8%	0.59×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.7%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
Athletico-PR & under 2.5	18.5%	18.0%	11.0%	1.64×	5.56
Grêmio & over 2.5	15.4%	18.0%	27.5%	0.65×	5.56
Grêmio & under 2.5	13.6%	12.9%	21.5%	0.60×	7.77
Athletico-PR & under 1.5	10.6%	12.9%	7.0%	1.84×	7.77
Athletico-PR & over 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	5.6%	2.31×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	10.2%	12.9%	6.7%	1.92×	7.77
Grêmio & under 1.5	8.3%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.70
Grêmio & over 3.5	6.6%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (1UP)	56.3%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Grêmio (1UP)	45.5%	43.2%	—	—	2.31

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (2UP)	41.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Grêmio (2UP)	29.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.98

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	38.6%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Athletico-PR to win 2nd half	36.2%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Grêmio to win 2nd half	25.2%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (+2.5)	96.5%	96.3%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Athletico-PR (+1.5)	88.2%	88.5%	76.8%	1.15×	1.13
Athletico-PR (+0.5)	71.0%	73.7%	51.1%	1.44×	1.36
Grêmio (+0.5)	58.8%	57.0%	76.0%	0.75×	1.75
Athletico-PR (-0.5)	41.2%	43.0%	24.0%	1.79×	2.33
Grêmio (-0.5)	29.0%	26.3%	48.9%	0.54×	3.80
Grêmio (-1.5)	11.8%	11.5%	23.2%	0.49×	8.70
Grêmio (-2.5)	3.5%	3.7%	9.2%	0.40×	26.82

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to concede	66.1%	72.4%	79.6%	0.91×	1.38
Athletico-PR clean sheet	33.9%	27.6%	20.4%	1.35×	3.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR clean sheet in 1st half	62.8%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Athletico-PR to concede in 1st half	37.2%	35.4%	—	—	2.82

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 6.5 corners	77.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Athletico-PR over 2.5 corners	76.1%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Athletico-PR under 5.5 corners	66.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Athletico-PR over 3.5 corners	61.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Athletico-PR under 4.5 corners	53.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Athletico-PR over 4.5 corners	46.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Athletico-PR under 3.5 corners	38.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Athletico-PR over 5.5 corners	33.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Athletico-PR under 2.5 corners	23.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
Athletico-PR over 6.5 corners	23.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 3.5 goals	95.3%	97.5%	97.9%	1.00×	1.03
Athletico-PR under 2.5 goals	84.9%	81.5%	90.9%	0.90×	1.23
Athletico-PR over 0.5 goals	73.7%	72.0%	65.4%	1.10×	1.39
Athletico-PR under 1.5 goals	61.4%	62.9%	72.0%	0.87×	1.59
Athletico-PR over 1.5 goals	38.6%	37.1%	28.0%	1.32×	2.70
Athletico-PR under 0.5 goals	26.3%	28.0%	34.6%	0.81×	3.57
Athletico-PR over 2.5 goals	15.1%	18.5%	9.1%	2.04×	5.39
Athletico-PR over 3.5 goals	4.7%	2.5%	2.1%	1.19×	40.73

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR under 1.5 in 1st half	89.9%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Athletico-PR under 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Athletico-PR over 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.67
Athletico-PR over 1.5 in 1st half	10.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.56

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	50.8%	51.2%	35.8%	1.43×	1.95
Grêmio (away no bet)	49.2%	48.8%	64.2%	0.76×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR even goals	53.5%	52.8%	54.9%	0.96×	1.90
Athletico-PR odd goals	46.5%	47.2%	45.1%	1.05×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	89.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.34

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.6%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.4%	40.1%	—	—	2.49

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	49.5%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Athletico-PR to score 2+ in a row	31.5%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Grêmio to score 2+ in a row	22.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Either team to score 3+ in a row	15.7%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Athletico-PR to score 3+ in a row	10.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Grêmio to score 3+ in a row	5.8%	5.6%	—	—	17.89

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio corners (+3.5)	85.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Grêmio corners (+2.5)	79.7%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Athletico-PR corners (+3.5)	74.2%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Grêmio corners (+1.5)	72.1%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Athletico-PR corners (+2.5)	66.0%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Athletico-PR corners (+1.5)	56.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Grêmio corners (-1.5)	43.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Grêmio corners (-2.5)	34.0%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Athletico-PR corners (-1.5)	27.9%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Grêmio corners (-3.5)	25.8%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Athletico-PR corners (-2.5)	20.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Athletico-PR corners (-3.5)	14.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	37.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
12+ corners	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.5%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	72.7%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	71.8%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	65.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	62.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	56.5%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	52.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	47.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	43.5%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	37.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 11.5 corners	34.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	28.2%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	27.3%	27.3%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.2%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.73
0-1	10.6%	11.4%	7.0%	1.63×	8.74
0-0	10.2%	11.4%	6.7%	1.71×	8.74
1-2	8.6%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.47
0-2	7.9%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.47
1-0	8.3%	7.4%	12.3%	0.61×	13.47
2-1	7.0%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.47
2-0	5.2%	7.4%	9.4%	0.79×	13.47
2-2	4.7%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.50
0-3	3.5%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.50
0-4	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.52
1-3	3.8%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.50
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.52
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.51
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.52
3-0	1.9%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.51
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.51
3-2	1.7%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.51
3-3	0.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.52
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.2%	10.73×	58.52
4-0	0.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.52
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.52
4-2	0.5%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.52
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.52
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	10.73×	58.52
Any other score	1.7%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.51

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR leading at HT (DNB)	54.4%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Grêmio leading at HT (DNB)	45.6%	44.2%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw (X2)	71.0%	72.1%	51.1%	1.41×	1.39
Grêmio or Athletico-PR (12)	70.1%	72.1%	72.8%	0.99×	1.39
Grêmio or draw (1X)	58.8%	57.0%	76.0%	0.75×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw at HT	75.8%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Grêmio or draw at HT	71.2%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Grêmio or Athletico-PR at HT	53.0%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw (1UP)	71.0%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Grêmio or draw (1UP)	58.8%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR or draw in 2nd half	74.8%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Grêmio or draw in 2nd half	63.8%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Grêmio or Athletico-PR in 2nd half	61.4%	63.7%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	66.1%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	33.9%	30.6%	—	—	3.27

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (DNB)	58.7%	58.3%	33.0%	1.77×	1.72
Grêmio (DNB)	41.3%	41.7%	67.0%	0.62×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score first	49.6%	45.8%	—	—	2.19
Grêmio to score first	40.2%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
No goal scored	10.2%	9.5%	—	—	10.51

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	50.1%	51.4%	51.8%	0.99×	1.94
Not both teams to score	49.9%	48.6%	48.2%	1.01×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	42.3%	41.6%	38.9%	1.07×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	35.9%	38.5%	38.2%	1.01×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	14.2%	12.3%	13.7%	0.90×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.6%	8.4%	9.6%	0.88×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	88.6%	85.7%	87.3%	0.98×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	11.4%	14.3%	12.7%	1.12×	6.98

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	74.2%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	25.8%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	62.4%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Both score 2nd half only	21.9%	20.9%	—	—	4.78
Both score 1st half only	11.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.49
Both score in both halves	3.9%	4.9%	—	—	20.29

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	84.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	15.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.85

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	51.4%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	48.6%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.4%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
0-1 goals	29.1%	26.5%	25.6%	1.03×	3.78
4-6 goals	21.3%	22.8%	24.2%	0.94×	4.38
7+ goals	1.2%	1.8%	0.6%	2.85×	55.13

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score exactly 1	35.1%	36.0%	37.6%	0.96×	2.78
Athletico-PR to score exactly 0	26.3%	27.4%	34.6%	0.79×	3.65
Athletico-PR to score exactly 2	23.5%	22.4%	19.1%	1.17×	4.46
Athletico-PR to score 3+	15.1%	19.5%	9.1%	2.15×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	34.2%	1.04×	2.81
Grêmio to score exactly 0	33.9%	32.7%	20.4%	1.60×	3.06
Grêmio to score exactly 2	19.9%	18.9%	27.2%	0.69×	5.29
Grêmio to score 3+	9.6%	10.3%	18.5%	0.56×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	47.0%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Athletico-PR leading at HT	28.8%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Grêmio leading at HT	24.2%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR -1: 1	58.8%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
Athletico-PR -1: X	21.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Athletico-PR -1: 2	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:1)	71.0%	70.9%	51.1%	1.39×	1.41
Draw (0:1)	17.2%	17.8%	25.8%	0.69×	5.62
Grêmio (0:1)	11.8%	13.8%	23.2%	0.60×	7.23

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:2)	88.2%	87.0%	76.8%	1.13×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	8.2%	7.7%	14.2%	0.54×	12.95
Grêmio (0:2)	3.5%	3.8%	9.2%	0.41×	26.53

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:3)	96.5%	96.6%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.7%	2.4%	6.7%	0.36×	42.09
Grêmio (0:3)	0.8%	2.4%	2.7%	0.88×	42.18

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (0:4)	99.2%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.54
Grêmio (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	1.1%	1.07×	83.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (1:0)	58.8%	58.1%	76.0%	0.77×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	21.5%	21.7%	14.7%	1.48×	4.60
Athletico-PR (1:0)	19.6%	17.1%	9.6%	1.78×	5.86

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio (2:0)	80.4%	84.5%	90.4%	0.93×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	12.5%	10.4%	6.2%	1.67×	9.62
Athletico-PR (2:0)	7.1%	6.4%	3.5%	1.84×	15.53

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to concede	73.7%	73.1%	65.4%	1.12×	1.37
Grêmio clean sheet	26.3%	26.9%	34.6%	0.78×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio clean sheet in 1st half	58.6%	62.6%	—	—	1.60
Grêmio to concede in 1st half	41.4%	37.5%	—	—	2.67

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio over 2.5 corners	83.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Grêmio over 3.5 corners	71.3%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Grêmio under 6.5 corners	66.2%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Grêmio over 4.5 corners	58.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Grêmio under 5.5 corners	54.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Grêmio over 5.5 corners	45.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Grêmio under 4.5 corners	42.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Grêmio over 6.5 corners	33.8%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Grêmio under 3.5 corners	28.7%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Grêmio under 2.5 corners	16.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio under 3.5 goals	97.6%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Grêmio under 2.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	81.5%	1.13×	1.08
Grêmio under 1.5 goals	70.5%	74.2%	54.5%	1.36×	1.35
Grêmio over 0.5 goals	66.1%	67.8%	79.6%	0.85×	1.47
Grêmio under 0.5 goals	33.9%	32.2%	20.4%	1.58×	3.11
Grêmio over 1.5 goals	29.5%	25.8%	45.5%	0.57×	3.88
Grêmio over 2.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	18.5%	0.42×	12.90
Grêmio over 3.5 goals	2.5%	3.6%	5.7%	0.64×	27.47

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Grêmio under 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Grêmio over 0.5 in 1st half	37.2%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
Grêmio over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	4.7%	—	—	21.30

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR (home no bet)	57.9%	56.7%	46.9%	1.21×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	42.1%	43.3%	53.1%	0.82×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio even goals	55.7%	55.4%	51.8%	1.07×	1.80
Grêmio odd goals	44.3%	44.6%	48.2%	0.92×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	37.0%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
HT 0-1	19.4%	18.8%	—	—	5.31
HT 1-0	16.9%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.14
HT 0-2	5.3%	7.0%	—	—	14.20
HT 2-0	4.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.77
Any other HT score	2.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.85
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.89
HT 2-1	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.91
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	44.03

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	22.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.5%	16.9%	—	—	5.93
Grêmio at HT / Grêmio at FT	16.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Grêmio at FT	11.2%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Grêmio at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	—	—	16.64
Athletico-PR at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Grêmio at HT / Athletico-PR at FT	2.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Athletico-PR at HT / Grêmio at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR to score last	49.7%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Grêmio to score last	40.1%	40.2%	—	—	2.49
No goal scored	10.2%	8.9%	—	—	11.24

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	89.8%	91.0%	—	—	1.10
Athletico-PR to lead by 1 at any time	56.3%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Grêmio to lead by 1 at any time	45.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	41.3%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Athletico-PR to lead by 2 at any time	25.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.09
Grêmio to lead by 2 at any time	16.4%	14.9%	—	—	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Athletico-PR to lead by 3 at any time	8.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.17
Grêmio to lead by 3 at any time	4.6%	1.6%	—	—	61.83

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio most corners	53.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Athletico-PR most corners	36.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	9.8%	8.5%	—	—	11.79

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.0%	78.6%	81.8%	0.96×	1.27
2-6 goals	69.7%	69.0%	73.9%	0.93×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.3%	69.0%	68.8%	1.00×	1.45
2-5 goals	67.2%	69.0%	69.9%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	61.1%	63.4%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
2-3 goals	48.4%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
1-2 goals	46.3%	48.7%	45.9%	1.06×	2.06
3-6 goals	42.3%	43.6%	47.1%	0.92×	2.30
3-5 goals	39.8%	39.2%	43.2%	0.91×	2.55
3-4 goals	33.7%	35.4%	36.1%	0.98×	2.83
4-6 goals	21.3%	24.5%	24.2%	1.01×	4.09
4-5 goals	18.8%	18.6%	20.2%	0.92×	5.37
5-6 goals	8.6%	8.8%	11.1%	0.79×	11.43
7+ goals	1.2%	2.5%	0.6%	3.98×	39.46

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Athletico-PR never behind	44.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07
Grêmio never behind	33.5%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.0%	50.8%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.0%	49.2%	50.8%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	57.2%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	42.8%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.8%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.2%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.3%	95.5%	95.4%	1.00×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	90.2%	92.3%	88.4%	1.04×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	89.8%	87.7%	93.3%	0.94×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.5%	77.4%	75.3%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.9%	72.5%	74.4%	0.98×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	56.5%	58.8%	52.4%	1.12×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	43.5%	41.2%	47.6%	0.87×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	29.1%	27.5%	25.6%	1.07×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	22.5%	22.6%	24.7%	0.92×	4.42
Under 0.5 goals	10.2%	12.3%	6.7%	1.85×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	9.8%	7.7%	11.6%	0.67×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	3.7%	4.5%	4.6%	0.97×	22.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.8%	97.3%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	96.1%	97.2%	95.0%	1.02×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.7%	86.8%	86.6%	1.00×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	71.5%	72.6%	68.0%	1.07×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.9%	55.5%	65.0%	0.85×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.1%	44.5%	35.0%	1.27×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	28.5%	27.4%	32.0%	0.86×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.3%	13.2%	13.4%	0.99×	7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.9%	2.8%	5.0%	0.55×	36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.2%	2.7%	0.7%	4.14×	36.38

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.0%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	73.3%	70.9%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	63.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	37.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	26.7%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.0%	7.2%	—	—	13.80

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	82.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	75.4%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	58.1%	54.7%	—	—	1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	41.9%	45.3%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	24.6%	20.1%	—	—	4.96
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	17.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio not to score in both halves	82.9%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Athletico-PR not to score in both halves	77.2%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Athletico-PR to score in both halves	22.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Grêmio to score in both halves	17.1%	15.6%	—	—	6.42

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	50.1%	53.9%	51.8%	1.04×	1.86
Only Athletico-PR scores	23.6%	22.4%	13.9%	1.61×	4.47
Only Grêmio scores	16.1%	16.1%	28.0%	0.57×	6.22
Neither team scores	10.2%	10.9%	6.7%	1.63×	9.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.4%	24.9%	26.9%	0.93×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.0%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	18.9%	17.4%	19.1%	0.91×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	12.7%	12.1%	13.2%	0.91×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	10.2%	12.1%	6.7%	1.80×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	6.1%	7.6%	7.2%	1.07×	13.10
6 or more goals	3.7%	4.4%	4.6%	0.95×	22.68

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	41.9%	43.9%	—	—	2.28
1 goal in 2nd half	33.4%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
No goals in 2nd half	24.6%	23.2%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio not to win both halves	93.7%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Athletico-PR not to win both halves	89.4%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Athletico-PR to win both halves	10.6%	11.9%	—	—	8.39
Grêmio to win both halves	6.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.69

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio to win neither half	56.9%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Athletico-PR to win either half	54.4%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Athletico-PR to win neither half	45.6%	44.9%	—	—	2.23
Grêmio to win either half	43.1%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Grêmio not to win to nil	83.9%	83.0%	72.0%	1.15×	1.20
Athletico-PR not to win to nil	76.4%	78.0%	86.1%	0.91×	1.28
Athletico-PR to win to nil	23.6%	22.0%	13.9%	1.59×	4.55
Grêmio to win to nil	16.1%	17.0%	28.0%	0.61×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	29.9%	27.8%	27.2%	1.02×	3.59
Athletico-PR by 1	21.5%	24.1%	14.7%	1.65×	4.14
Grêmio by 1	17.2%	17.0%	25.8%	0.66×	5.90
Athletico-PR by 2	12.5%	11.8%	6.2%	1.90×	8.47
Grêmio by 2	8.2%	7.2%	14.2%	0.51×	13.79
Athletico-PR by 3+	7.1%	7.2%	3.5%	2.07×	13.80
Grêmio by 3+	3.5%	2.7%	9.2%	0.29×	37.02