Hamburger SV v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 14 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 11
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
5 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.41 – 0.90
Goals − xG
+0.44 – -0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hamburger SV win
42.7%
Draw
28.2%
FC Cologne win
29.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hamburger SV have scored 11 from 11.2 expected and conceded 24 from 25.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.2 xG
conceded 24
from 25.8 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.46–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.77–1.20 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hamburger SV 0.56 xGFC Cologne 1.04 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hamburger SV attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Hamburger SV |
Ransford Königsdörffer | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Miro Muheim |
| 25' |
 FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cenk Özkacar |
| 26' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.09 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 26' |
FC Cologne |
Youssoupha Niang | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 28' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 38' |
Hamburger SV |
Fábio Vieira | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | William Mikelbrencis |
| 44' |
FC Cologne |
Rav van den Berg | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 44' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Goal | Rav van den Berg |
| 44' |
FC Cologne |
Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Linton Maina | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
FC Cologne |
Ragnar Ache | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Linton Maina |
| 71' |
Hamburger SV |
William Mikelbrencis | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Hamburger SV |
Otto Stange | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 94' |
Hamburger SV |
Daniel Elfadli | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jean-Luc Dompe |
| 97' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Hamburger SV
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fábio Vieira AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Albert Sambi Lokonga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Warmed Omari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Nicolai Remberg MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Miro Muheim DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Luka Vuskovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| William Mikelbrencis DMR | 81 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Jordan Torunarigha DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ransford Königsdörffer AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Damion Downs FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Otto Stange Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jean-Luc Dompe Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.08 |
| Daniel Elfadli Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Fabio Baldé Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Philip Otele Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Martel DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Rav van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.50 | 0.14 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.10 |
| Jakub Kaminski AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.24 | 0.10 |
| Kristoffer Lund DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Tom Krauß DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Said El Mala AML | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Youssoupha Niang AMR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Kainz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |