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Heart of Midlothian v Dundee — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · SCO-Premiership · 2627

SCO-Premiership results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Heart of Midlothian win
67.8%
model 67.2%
Draw
21.8%
model 20.1%
Dundee win
10.4%
model 12.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (147 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 12.8%
  2. 1-0 12.7%
  3. 2-1 9.6%
  4. 1-1 9.5%
  5. 3-0 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.552.2% Under 2.547.8%
BTTS yes45.6% BTTS no54.4%
Heart of Midlothian 1+86.7% Heart of Midlothian 2+59.9%
Dundee 1+52.5% Dundee 2+17.2%

Expected goals 2.02 – 0.75. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
79/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Heart of Midlothian (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 46%
69.1% fair odds 1.45
strong signal · 931 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Dundee under 1.5 goals
Away goals O/U · usually 63%
82.6% fair odds 1.21
strong signal · 848 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Heart of Midlothian carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1461.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Heart of Midlothian have an estimated 67.8% win probability, against 21.8% for the draw and 10.4% for Dundee. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.02 for Heart of Midlothian and 0.74 for Dundee.

Why Heart of Midlothian

Heart of Midlothian carry the stronger rating, 1695 Elo against 1461. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.8%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Dundee can win

Nothing in the data singles out Dundee.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Heart of Midlothian, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Dundee, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Heart of Midlothian: 34% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Dundee: 39% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Heart of Midlothian are the model's most likely outcome at 67.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 12.8%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.02–0.75 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.12–0.72 2-0 13% 54% 45%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win 69.8% 65.2% 45.9% 1.42× 1.53
Draw 18.9% 19.4% 23.4% 0.83× 5.17
Dundee to win 11.3% 13.3% 30.9% 0.43× 7.53
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian & not both score 43.0% 40.1% 27.4% 1.47× 2.49
Heart of Midlothian & both teams score 26.8% 25.2% 18.7% 1.35× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 13.0% 13.3% 17.8% 0.74× 7.54
Draw & not both score 5.9% 8.4% 5.8% 1.44× 11.94
Dundee & not both score 6.1% 8.4% 14.7% 0.57× 11.94
Dundee & both teams score 5.2% 8.4% 16.4% 0.51× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian & over 1.5 57.3% 54.9% 36.7% 1.50× 1.82
Heart of Midlothian & under 3.5 44.4% 40.3% 30.1% 1.34× 2.48
Heart of Midlothian & over 2.5 44.1% 40.3% 28.2% 1.43× 2.48
Heart of Midlothian & under 2.5 25.6% 26.0% 17.8% 1.46× 3.84
Heart of Midlothian & over 3.5 25.4% 26.0% 16.0% 1.63× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 14.9% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 14.9% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.77
Heart of Midlothian & under 1.5 12.4% 12.9% 9.3% 1.38× 7.77
Draw & over 1.5 13.0% 12.9% 17.8% 0.72× 7.77
Dundee & under 3.5 9.2% 7.9% 22.4% 0.35× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 5.9% 7.9% 5.8% 1.36× 12.70
Dundee & over 1.5 7.1% 7.9% 24.5% 0.32× 12.70
Dundee & over 2.5 5.6% 7.9% 20.5% 0.38× 12.70
Dundee & under 2.5 5.7% 7.9% 10.6% 0.74× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.0% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.0% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.93
Dundee & under 1.5 4.2% 4.8% 6.6% 0.72× 20.93
Dundee & over 3.5 2.1% 4.8% 8.7% 0.55× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (1UP) 78.8% 79.0% 1.27
Dundee (1UP) 26.6% 26.6% 3.76
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2UP) 69.8% 69.3% 1.44
Dundee (2UP) 11.3% 13.2% 7.58
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win 2nd half 55.8% 59.6% 1.68
2nd half drawn 31.0% 34.5% 2.90
Dundee to win 2nd half 13.2% 12.4% 8.09
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (+0.5) 88.7% 88.5% 69.1% 1.28× 1.13
Dundee (+2.5) 76.1% 78.4% 87.8% 0.89× 1.28
Heart of Midlothian (-0.5) 69.8% 68.7% 45.9% 1.50× 1.46
Dundee (+1.5) 54.8% 52.4% 73.4% 0.71× 1.91
Heart of Midlothian (-1.5) 45.2% 47.6% 26.6% 1.79× 2.10
Dundee (+0.5) 30.2% 31.3% 54.1% 0.58× 3.20
Heart of Midlothian (-2.5) 23.9% 21.6% 12.2% 1.76× 4.64
Dundee (-0.5) 11.3% 11.5% 30.9% 0.37× 8.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede 87.9% 86.5% 79.7% 1.09× 1.16
Dundee clean sheet 12.1% 13.5% 20.3% 0.67× 7.39
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to concede in 1st half 59.7% 58.6% 1.71
Dundee clean sheet in 1st half 40.3% 41.4% 2.41
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 6.5 corners 92.7% 89.2% 1.12
Dundee under 5.5 corners 85.7% 84.9% 1.18
Dundee under 4.5 corners 74.2% 72.3% 1.38
Dundee over 2.5 corners 62.4% 61.4% 1.63
Dundee under 3.5 corners 57.7% 56.9% 1.76
Dundee over 3.5 corners 42.3% 43.1% 2.32
Dundee under 2.5 corners 37.6% 38.6% 2.59
Dundee over 4.5 corners 25.8% 27.7% 3.62
Dundee over 5.5 corners 14.3% 15.1% 6.62
Dundee over 6.5 corners 7.3% 10.8% 9.30
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 3.5 goals 99.4% 97.6% 96.3% 1.01× 1.03
Dundee under 2.5 goals 96.4% 97.5% 85.5% 1.14× 1.03
Dundee under 1.5 goals 83.9% 81.4% 63.1% 1.29× 1.23
Dundee over 0.5 goals 51.1% 53.7% 67.0% 0.80× 1.86
Dundee under 0.5 goals 48.9% 46.3% 33.0% 1.40× 2.16
Dundee over 1.5 goals 16.1% 18.6% 36.9% 0.50× 5.38
Dundee over 2.5 goals 3.6% 2.5% 14.5% 0.17× 40.69
Dundee over 3.5 goals 0.6% 2.4% 3.7% 0.66× 40.85
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee under 1.5 in 1st half 96.6% 95.8% 1.04
Dundee under 0.5 in 1st half 75.1% 75.4% 1.33
Dundee over 0.5 in 1st half 24.9% 24.6% 4.06
Dundee over 1.5 in 1st half 3.4% 4.2% 23.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (away no bet) 78.7% 73.7% 66.2% 1.11× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 21.3% 26.3% 33.8% 0.78× 3.81
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee even goals 62.0% 59.0% 57.7% 1.02× 1.69
Dundee odd goals 38.0% 41.0% 42.3% 0.97× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.7% 83.0% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.3% 17.0% 5.88
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 65.9% 68.5% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 34.1% 31.5% 3.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 62.8% 59.9% 1.67
Heart of Midlothian to score 2+ in a row 56.6% 55.1% 1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row 29.8% 25.1% 3.98
Heart of Midlothian to score 3+ in a row 28.3% 25.1% 3.99
Dundee to score 2+ in a row 10.1% 12.1% 8.26
Dundee to score 3+ in a row 1.6% 2.5% 39.64
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian corners (+3.5) 96.7% 94.0% 1.06
Heart of Midlothian corners (+2.5) 93.8% 88.7% 1.13
Heart of Midlothian corners (+1.5) 89.2% 84.2% 1.19
Heart of Midlothian corners (-1.5) 63.0% 61.7% 1.62
Dundee corners (+3.5) 60.0% 56.8% 1.76
Heart of Midlothian corners (-2.5) 51.4% 52.3% 1.91
Dundee corners (+2.5) 48.6% 47.7% 2.10
Heart of Midlothian corners (-3.5) 40.0% 43.2% 2.32
Dundee corners (+1.5) 37.0% 38.3% 2.61
Dundee corners (-1.5) 10.8% 15.8% 6.32
Dundee corners (-2.5) 6.2% 11.3% 8.82
Dundee corners (-3.5) 3.3% 6.0% 16.60
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 42.3% 37.1% 2.70
9-11 corners 31.2% 32.0% 3.13
12+ corners 26.5% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.1% 79.8% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 73.5% 72.5% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 68.9% 67.9% 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 64.3% 62.7% 1.60
Over 8.5 corners 57.7% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 53.7% 52.2% 1.91
Over 9.5 corners 46.3% 47.8% 2.09
Under 8.5 corners 42.3% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 35.7% 37.3% 2.68
Under 7.5 corners 31.1% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 26.5% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 18.9% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 13.2% 11.5% 8.7% 1.31× 8.73
1-0 12.4% 11.5% 9.3% 1.23× 8.73
1-1 9.0% 7.4% 9.3% 0.79× 13.48
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.48
3-0 9.3% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.48
3-1 6.7% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.48
0-0 5.9% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.48
Any other score 6.4% 7.4% 4.1% 1.79× 13.48
4-0 4.9% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.46
0-1 4.2% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.47
0-2 1.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.48
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 3.3% 0.52× 58.49
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.12× 58.49
1-2 3.2% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.47
1-3 0.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.49
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.49
2-2 3.4% 1.7% 6.6% 0.26× 58.47
2-3 0.8% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.49
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.49
3-2 2.4% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.48
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.49
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.12× 58.49
4-1 3.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.18× 58.47
4-2 1.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.75× 58.48
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.06× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.24× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian leading at HT (DNB) 81.6% 86.3% 1.16
Dundee leading at HT (DNB) 18.4% 13.7% 7.31
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw (1X) 88.7% 86.7% 69.1% 1.26× 1.15
Heart of Midlothian or Dundee (12) 81.1% 80.7% 76.6% 1.05× 1.24
Dundee or draw (X2) 30.2% 34.8% 54.1% 0.64× 2.87
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw at HT 88.7% 88.3% 1.13
Heart of Midlothian or Dundee at HT 61.3% 62.1% 1.61
Dundee or draw at HT 50.0% 52.5% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw (1UP) 88.7% 91.9% 1.09
Dundee or draw (1UP) 30.2% 38.4% 2.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian or draw in 2nd half 86.8% 87.6% 1.14
Heart of Midlothian or Dundee in 2nd half 69.0% 65.5% 1.53
Dundee or draw in 2nd half 44.2% 40.4% 2.48
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.6% 58.1% 1.72
Neither half drawn 42.4% 41.9% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (DNB) 86.0% 87.1% 59.7% 1.46× 1.15
Dundee (DNB) 14.0% 12.9% 40.3% 0.32× 7.75
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score first 70.3% 74.5% 1.34
Dundee to score first 23.8% 23.1% 4.33
No goal scored 5.9% 7.5% 13.40
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 55.0% 54.9% 47.5% 1.15× 1.82
Both teams to score 45.0% 45.1% 52.5% 0.86× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 37.3% 38.5% 33.8% 1.14× 2.60
Both score & over 2.5 36.0% 38.5% 43.4% 0.89× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 17.8% 21.7% 13.9% 1.56× 4.60
Both score & under 2.5 9.0% 8.4% 9.3% 0.90× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.9% 85.6% 83.8% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.1% 14.4% 16.2% 0.89× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.5% 75.1% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.5% 24.9% 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.3% 66.6% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 20.8% 20.8% 4.82
Both score 1st half only 11.2% 10.7% 9.32
Both score in both halves 3.6% 5.0% 19.97
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.1% 85.7% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.9% 14.3% 7.01
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.2% 57.2% 1.75
A half without a goal 43.8% 42.8% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.0% 47.4% 45.9% 1.03× 2.11
4-6 goals 28.9% 26.5% 31.3% 0.84× 3.78
0-1 goals 22.5% 22.8% 21.4% 1.07× 4.38
7+ goals 2.5% 1.8% 1.9% 0.98× 54.54
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee to score exactly 0 48.9% 43.0% 33.0% 1.30× 2.33
Dundee to score exactly 1 35.0% 33.8% 30.3% 1.12× 2.96
Dundee to score exactly 2 12.5% 12.8% 22.6% 0.57× 7.80
Dundee to score 3+ 3.6% 4.5% 14.5% 0.31× 22.06
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score 3+ 35.4% 35.6% 23.9% 1.49× 2.81
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 25.1% 1.06× 3.77
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 1 25.5% 26.5% 31.1% 0.85× 3.77
Heart of Midlothian to score exactly 0 12.1% 14.3% 20.3% 0.70× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian leading at HT 50.0% 47.5% 2.10
Draw at HT 38.7% 37.9% 2.64
Dundee leading at HT 11.3% 11.7% 8.57
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian -1: 1 45.2% 46.9% 2.13
Heart of Midlothian -1: 2 30.2% 30.0% 3.33
Heart of Midlothian -1: X 24.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (0:1) 45.2% 45.9% 26.6% 1.73× 2.18
Dundee (0:1) 30.2% 30.0% 54.1% 0.55× 3.34
Draw (0:1) 24.6% 24.3% 19.5% 1.25× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:2) 54.8% 58.6% 73.4% 0.80× 1.71
Heart of Midlothian (0:2) 23.9% 20.4% 12.2% 1.66× 4.91
Draw (0:2) 21.3% 20.3% 14.5% 1.40× 4.92
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:3) 76.1% 80.4% 87.8% 0.92× 1.24
Draw (0:3) 13.4% 10.0% 6.8% 1.46× 9.98
Heart of Midlothian (0:3) 10.5% 10.0% 5.6% 1.78× 10.03
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee (0:4) 89.5% 92.1% 94.4% 0.98× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 6.6% 4.6% 4.8% 0.97× 21.55
Heart of Midlothian (0:4) 3.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.22
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (1:0) 88.7% 86.4% 69.1% 1.25× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.3% 6.9% 17.6% 0.39× 14.43
Dundee (1:0) 3.0% 3.2% 13.5% 0.23× 31.62
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian (2:0) 97.0% 96.9% 86.5% 1.12× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.4% 2.3% 7.7% 0.29× 44.22
Dundee (2:0) 0.6% 2.3% 6.0% 0.37× 44.34
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.6% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.5% 24.1% 4.14
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to concede 51.1% 53.1% 67.0% 0.79× 1.88
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet 48.9% 46.9% 33.0% 1.42× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet in 1st half 75.1% 76.9% 1.30
Heart of Midlothian to concede in 1st half 24.9% 23.1% 4.33
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian over 2.5 corners 90.8% 88.2% 1.13
Heart of Midlothian over 3.5 corners 81.0% 81.3% 1.23
Heart of Midlothian over 4.5 corners 68.2% 67.8% 1.48
Heart of Midlothian under 6.5 corners 59.4% 57.4% 1.74
Heart of Midlothian over 5.5 corners 54.2% 53.1% 1.89
Heart of Midlothian under 5.5 corners 45.8% 46.9% 2.13
Heart of Midlothian over 6.5 corners 40.6% 42.6% 2.35
Heart of Midlothian under 4.5 corners 31.8% 32.2% 3.10
Heart of Midlothian under 3.5 corners 19.0% 18.7% 5.35
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 corners 9.2% 11.8% 8.51
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 goals 87.9% 87.3% 79.7% 1.10× 1.15
Heart of Midlothian under 3.5 goals 83.6% 82.1% 92.1% 0.89× 1.22
Heart of Midlothian under 2.5 goals 64.6% 63.5% 76.1% 0.83× 1.58
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 goals 62.4% 63.5% 48.8% 1.30× 1.58
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 goals 37.6% 36.5% 51.2% 0.71× 2.74
Heart of Midlothian over 2.5 goals 35.4% 36.5% 23.9% 1.53× 2.74
Heart of Midlothian over 3.5 goals 16.4% 17.9% 7.9% 2.27× 5.59
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 goals 12.1% 12.7% 20.3% 0.63× 7.85
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian under 1.5 in 1st half 76.9% 77.1% 1.30
Heart of Midlothian over 0.5 in 1st half 59.7% 58.2% 1.72
Heart of Midlothian under 0.5 in 1st half 40.3% 41.8% 2.39
Heart of Midlothian over 1.5 in 1st half 23.1% 22.9% 4.37
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 62.6% 60.2% 43.1% 1.40× 1.66
Dundee (home no bet) 37.4% 39.8% 56.9% 0.70× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian even goals 50.7% 50.6% 51.7% 0.98× 1.98
Heart of Midlothian odd goals 49.3% 49.4% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.3% 32.2% 3.11
HT 1-0 27.5% 28.8% 3.47
HT 2-0 12.5% 10.9% 9.15
HT 0-1 8.6% 7.1% 14.03
HT 1-1 7.9% 7.1% 14.04
Any other HT score 6.7% 7.1% 14.06
HT 2-1 3.6% 2.3% 43.35
HT 0-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.52
HT 1-2 1.1% 2.3% 43.53
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT 45.6% 44.3% 2.26
Draw at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT 21.6% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.0% 12.7% 7.89
Dundee at HT / Dundee at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.73
Draw at HT / Dundee at FT 5.1% 6.0% 16.74
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% 28.82
Dundee at HT / Draw at FT 3.2% 3.5% 28.84
Dundee at HT / Heart of Midlothian at FT 2.6% 3.5% 28.86
Heart of Midlothian at HT / Dundee at FT 0.8% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to score last 70.3% 72.0% 1.39
Dundee to score last 23.7% 26.6% 3.76
No goal scored 5.9% 7.5% 13.40
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.1% 92.6% 1.08
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 1 at any time 78.8% 78.4% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 56.2% 55.1% 1.82
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 2 at any time 50.6% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.5% 25.4% 3.93
Dundee to lead by 1 at any time 26.6% 25.4% 3.93
Heart of Midlothian to lead by 3 at any time 26.5% 25.4% 3.94
Dundee to lead by 2 at any time 5.8% 6.6% 15.14
Dundee to lead by 3 at any time 1.0% 1.6% 63.32
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian most corners 73.6% 71.7% 1.39
Dundee most corners 17.5% 20.6% 4.85
Corners level 8.9% 8.4% 11.89
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.3% 87.4% 86.9% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.4% 78.6% 79.7% 0.99× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.9% 72.4% 77.0% 0.94× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.7% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.6% 63.4% 61.4% 1.03× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.8% 63.4% 64.1% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.2% 53.2% 55.4% 0.96× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.0% 48.7% 49.8% 0.98× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.0% 48.7% 45.9% 1.06× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.3% 43.6% 37.3% 1.17× 2.30
3-4 goals 38.1% 39.2% 42.5% 0.92× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.9% 30.3% 31.3% 0.97× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.7% 24.5% 25.7% 0.95× 4.08
5-6 goals 13.2% 14.9% 13.1% 1.14× 6.72
7+ goals 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 1.37× 39.22
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian never behind 67.4% 70.3% 1.42
Dundee never behind 15.3% 18.4% 5.45
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.7% 50.8% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.3% 49.2% 51.5% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.6% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.4% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.2% 92.3% 92.5% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.3% 82.4% 85.3% 0.97× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 77.5% 77.3% 78.6% 0.98× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 68.5% 66.2% 67.0% 0.99× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 53.8% 52.5% 57.1% 0.92× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 46.2% 47.5% 42.9% 1.11× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 31.5% 33.8% 33.0% 1.02× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 22.5% 22.7% 21.4% 1.06× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 15.7% 17.6% 14.7% 1.20× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 6.8% 7.7% 7.5% 1.04× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 5.9% 7.7% 5.8% 1.33× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.3% 97.2% 98.0% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.6% 92.5% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.4% 81.0% 82.0% 0.99× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.5% 72.6% 72.8% 1.00× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.5% 55.5% 56.6% 0.98× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.5% 44.5% 43.4% 1.03× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.5% 27.4% 27.2% 1.01× 3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.6% 19.0% 18.0% 1.05× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.4% 7.5% 8.1% 0.94× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.7% 2.8% 2.0% 1.40× 36.14
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.0% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.7% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.4% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.6% 31.0% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.3% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 12.0% 11.0% 9.09
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.5% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 77.4% 79.7% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 51.4% 53.1% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 48.6% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.6% 20.3% 4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.5% 17.2% 5.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to score in both halves 91.3% 90.0% 1.11
Heart of Midlothian not to score in both halves 58.1% 57.6% 1.74
Heart of Midlothian to score in both halves 41.9% 42.4% 2.36
Dundee to score in both halves 8.7% 10.0% 10.02
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 45.0% 46.6% 52.5% 0.89× 2.15
Only Heart of Midlothian scores 43.0% 46.6% 27.4% 1.70× 2.15
Only Dundee scores 6.1% 7.2% 14.7% 0.49× 13.92
Neither team scores 5.9% 7.2% 5.8% 1.24× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.7% 22.6% 21.8% 1.04× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 24.3% 0.93× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 16.6% 17.4% 15.8% 1.11× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 15.8% 17.4% 18.5% 0.94× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 8.9% 7.6% 7.5% 1.02× 13.08
6 or more goals 6.8% 7.6% 7.5% 1.02× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 5.9% 7.6% 5.8% 1.32× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 48.6% 45.1% 2.22
1 goal in 2nd half 31.8% 33.4% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 19.5% 17.2% 5.81
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win both halves 98.5% 97.3% 1.03
Heart of Midlothian not to win both halves 72.0% 72.6% 1.38
Heart of Midlothian to win both halves 28.0% 27.4% 3.65
Dundee to win both halves 1.5% 2.7% 36.66
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian to win either half 77.9% 79.8% 1.25
Dundee to win neither half 77.0% 79.7% 1.26
Dundee to win either half 23.0% 20.3% 4.92
Heart of Midlothian to win neither half 22.1% 20.2% 4.94
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Dundee not to win to nil 93.9% 92.1% 85.3% 1.08× 1.09
Heart of Midlothian not to win to nil 57.0% 58.8% 72.6% 0.81× 1.70
Heart of Midlothian to win to nil 43.0% 41.2% 27.4% 1.50× 2.43
Dundee to win to nil 6.1% 7.9% 14.7% 0.54× 12.60
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Heart of Midlothian by 1 24.6% 24.2% 19.5% 1.24× 4.14
Heart of Midlothian by 3+ 23.9% 24.2% 12.2% 1.97× 4.14
Heart of Midlothian by 2 21.3% 24.1% 14.5% 1.66× 4.14
Draw 18.9% 16.9% 23.4% 0.72× 5.91
Dundee by 1 8.3% 7.3% 17.6% 0.41× 13.78
Dundee by 2 2.4% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 37.01
Dundee by 3+ 0.6% 2.7% 6.0% 0.45× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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