Heracles Almelo v TOP Oss — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 2 November 2026 · NED-Eerste Divisie · 2627

NED-Eerste Divisie results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Heracles Almelo

14:00

TOP Oss

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,389h before kick-off

Heracles Almelo win

74.2%

model 71.6%

Draw

12.9%

model 14.7%

TOP Oss win

12.9%

model 13.6%

741313

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (637 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 8.6%
3-1 8.1%
2-0 7.2%
3-0 6.8%
1-1 5.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	76.4%	Under 2.5	23.6%
BTTS yes	65.1%	BTTS no	34.9%
Heracles Almelo 1+	94.1%	Heracles Almelo 2+	77.3%
TOP Oss 1+	69.5%	TOP Oss 2+	33.3%

Expected goals 2.83 – 1.19. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

48/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

88%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.88).

Why the model thinks this

The price

Heracles Almelo have an estimated 74.2% win probability, against 12.9% for the draw and 12.9% for TOP Oss. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.83 for Heracles Almelo and 1.19 for TOP Oss.

Why Heracles Almelo

Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 12.9%. Draws run at 22% in this competition.

Why TOP Oss can win

Nothing in the data singles out TOP Oss.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Heracles Almelo, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for TOP Oss, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Heracles Almelo: 55% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. TOP Oss: 38% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 16.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Heracles Almelo's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Heracles Almelo are the model's most likely outcome at 74.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 8.6%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	8497	3.79–1.16	3-1 7%	87%	67%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win	83.5%	81.1%	44.4%	1.83×	1.23
Draw	9.3%	8.3%	22.3%	0.37×	12.06
TOP Oss to win	7.2%	8.2%	33.5%	0.24×	12.23

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & both teams score	52.9%	48.6%	21.6%	2.24×	2.06
Heracles Almelo & not both score	30.7%	29.7%	22.9%	1.30×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	8.7%	8.4%	17.7%	0.47×	11.93
TOP Oss & both teams score	5.4%	8.4%	19.7%	0.43×	11.94
TOP Oss & not both score	1.7%	4.8%	13.9%	0.35×	20.63
Draw & not both score	0.6%	4.8%	4.7%	1.02×	20.67

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo & over 1.5	80.7%	76.2%	36.8%	2.07×	1.31
Heracles Almelo & over 2.5	75.6%	74.2%	30.6%	2.42×	1.35
Heracles Almelo & over 3.5	63.1%	54.7%	18.7%	2.93×	1.83
Heracles Almelo & under 3.5	20.4%	21.7%	25.9%	0.84×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	17.7%	0.45×	12.69
Heracles Almelo & under 2.5	8.0%	7.9%	13.9%	0.57×	12.70
TOP Oss & over 1.5	6.2%	7.9%	27.2%	0.29×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.7%	7.9%	8.2%	0.96×	12.70
TOP Oss & over 2.5	5.7%	7.9%	23.6%	0.33×	12.70
Draw & under 2.5	3.6%	4.8%	14.2%	0.34×	20.94
Draw & under 3.5	3.6%	4.8%	14.2%	0.34×	20.94
TOP Oss & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	13.8%	0.35×	20.94
TOP Oss & under 3.5	3.5%	4.8%	19.8%	0.24×	20.94
Heracles Almelo & under 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.94
TOP Oss & under 1.5	1.0%	4.8%	6.3%	0.75×	20.95
TOP Oss & under 2.5	1.5%	4.8%	10.0%	0.48×	20.95
Draw & under 1.5	0.6%	4.8%	4.7%	1.01×	20.96

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1UP)	91.3%	93.6%	—	—	1.07
TOP Oss (1UP)	28.3%	27.0%	—	—	3.71

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2UP)	83.5%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
TOP Oss (2UP)	7.2%	8.5%	—	—	11.79

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win 2nd half	70.9%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
2nd half drawn	18.3%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
TOP Oss to win 2nd half	10.8%	12.0%	—	—	8.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (+0.5)	92.8%	92.1%	66.5%	1.38×	1.09
Heracles Almelo (-0.5)	83.5%	82.4%	44.4%	1.86×	1.21
Heracles Almelo (-1.5)	68.3%	68.7%	24.4%	2.82×	1.46
Heracles Almelo (-2.5)	50.1%	52.3%	11.9%	4.38×	1.91
TOP Oss (+2.5)	49.9%	47.7%	88.1%	0.54×	2.10
TOP Oss (+1.5)	31.7%	31.3%	75.6%	0.41×	3.20
TOP Oss (+0.5)	16.5%	17.6%	55.6%	0.32×	5.69
TOP Oss (-0.5)	7.2%	7.9%	33.5%	0.24×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to concede	97.7%	96.5%	81.5%	1.18×	1.04
TOP Oss clean sheet	2.3%	3.5%	18.5%	0.19×	28.78

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to concede in 1st half	80.3%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
TOP Oss clean sheet in 1st half	19.7%	19.3%	—	—	5.19

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss over 2.5 corners	81.9%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
TOP Oss under 6.5 corners	76.0%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
TOP Oss over 3.5 corners	67.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
TOP Oss under 5.5 corners	63.8%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
TOP Oss over 4.5 corners	51.1%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
TOP Oss under 4.5 corners	48.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
TOP Oss over 5.5 corners	36.2%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
TOP Oss under 3.5 corners	32.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
TOP Oss over 6.5 corners	24.0%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
TOP Oss under 2.5 corners	18.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss under 3.5 goals	96.9%	97.5%	93.0%	1.05×	1.03
TOP Oss under 2.5 goals	88.7%	87.9%	81.5%	1.08×	1.14
TOP Oss over 0.5 goals	68.8%	68.0%	72.5%	0.94×	1.47
TOP Oss under 1.5 goals	67.6%	68.0%	58.1%	1.17×	1.47
TOP Oss over 1.5 goals	32.4%	32.0%	41.9%	0.76×	3.12
TOP Oss under 0.5 goals	31.2%	32.0%	27.5%	1.17×	3.12
TOP Oss over 2.5 goals	11.3%	12.1%	18.5%	0.65×	8.26
TOP Oss over 3.5 goals	3.1%	2.5%	7.0%	0.35×	40.72

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
TOP Oss under 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
TOP Oss over 0.5 in 1st half	37.2%	35.8%	—	—	2.79
TOP Oss over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	5.8%	—	—	17.12

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (away no bet)	90.0%	91.5%	66.6%	1.37×	1.09
Draw (away no bet)	10.0%	8.5%	33.4%	0.25×	11.75

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss even goals	54.9%	52.8%	57.1%	0.93×	1.89
TOP Oss odd goals	45.1%	47.2%	42.9%	1.10×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	52.0%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Both halves over 1.5 goals	48.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	91.4%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Both halves under 1.5 goals	8.6%	7.3%	—	—	13.66

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	88.0%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Heracles Almelo to score 2+ in a row	83.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Either team to score 3+ in a row	60.5%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Heracles Almelo to score 3+ in a row	58.3%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
TOP Oss to score 2+ in a row	17.4%	16.3%	—	—	6.12
TOP Oss to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.58

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo corners (+3.5)	93.2%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Heracles Almelo corners (+2.5)	89.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Heracles Almelo corners (+1.5)	84.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Heracles Almelo corners (-1.5)	60.4%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
TOP Oss corners (+3.5)	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Heracles Almelo corners (-2.5)	50.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
TOP Oss corners (+2.5)	49.2%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Heracles Almelo corners (-3.5)	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
TOP Oss corners (+1.5)	39.6%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
TOP Oss corners (-1.5)	15.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
TOP Oss corners (-2.5)	10.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
TOP Oss corners (-3.5)	6.8%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	55.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	26.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
0-8 corners	18.2%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	88.2%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Over 8.5 corners	81.8%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Over 9.5 corners	73.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 10.5 corners	65.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 11.5 corners	55.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 12.5 corners	53.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 12.5 corners	46.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 11.5 corners	44.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 10.5 corners	35.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 9.5 corners	26.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 8.5 corners	18.2%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Under 7.5 corners	11.8%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	32.9%	23.7%	4.7%	5.01×	4.22
3-1	7.5%	7.4%	4.6%	1.61×	13.48
4-1	7.1%	7.4%	1.4%	5.42×	13.48
2-0	5.1%	7.4%	6.3%	1.17×	13.48
2-1	6.0%	7.4%	8.1%	0.92×	13.48
3-0	6.5%	7.4%	4.1%	1.81×	13.48
4-0	6.1%	7.4%	3.5%	2.13×	13.48
0-0	0.6%	1.7%	4.7%	0.36×	58.49
0-1	1.0%	1.7%	6.3%	0.27×	58.48
0-2	0.5%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.49
0-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.49
1-0	2.9%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.47
1-1	3.0%	1.7%	9.6%	0.18×	58.47
1-2	1.8%	1.7%	7.5%	0.23×	58.48
1-3	0.7%	1.7%	3.7%	0.46×	58.49
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	2.2%	0.76×	58.49
2-2	3.5%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.47
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.5%	0.49×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.49
3-2	4.4%	1.7%	4.2%	0.40×	58.46
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.6%	1.06×	58.48
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	1.2%	1.37×	58.49
4-2	4.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.47
4-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.5%	3.44×	58.48
4-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.1%	13.75×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT (DNB)	86.6%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
TOP Oss leading at HT (DNB)	13.4%	13.8%	—	—	7.24

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1X)	92.8%	91.8%	66.5%	1.38×	1.09
Heracles Almelo or TOP Oss (12)	90.7%	91.7%	77.7%	1.18×	1.09
TOP Oss or draw (X2)	16.5%	18.9%	55.6%	0.34×	5.30

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw at HT	89.8%	88.5%	—	—	1.13
Heracles Almelo or TOP Oss at HT	76.4%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
TOP Oss or draw at HT	33.8%	29.4%	—	—	3.40

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw (1UP)	92.8%	93.7%	—	—	1.07
TOP Oss or draw (1UP)	28.3%	31.9%	—	—	3.13

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo or draw in 2nd half	89.2%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Heracles Almelo or TOP Oss in 2nd half	81.7%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
TOP Oss or draw in 2nd half	29.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	62.2%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
A half drawn	37.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (DNB)	92.1%	93.1%	57.0%	1.63×	1.07
TOP Oss (DNB)	7.9%	6.9%	43.0%	0.16×	14.52

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score first	76.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
TOP Oss to score first	23.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.35
No goal scored	0.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.87

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	67.0%	58.2%	58.7%	0.99×	1.72
Not both teams to score	33.0%	41.8%	41.3%	1.01×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	64.1%	50.2%	49.3%	1.02×	1.99
Not both score & over 2.5	22.9%	27.7%	13.1%	2.12×	3.61
Not both score & under 2.5	10.0%	12.3%	28.4%	0.43×	8.11
Both score & under 2.5	3.0%	4.6%	9.6%	0.48×	21.87

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	71.1%	80.4%	79.0%	1.02×	1.24
Both teams to score 2+	28.9%	19.6%	21.0%	0.93×	5.10

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	55.6%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	44.4%	34.1%	—	—	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	39.0%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Both score 2nd half only	31.1%	26.4%	—	—	3.79
Both score 1st half only	16.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.41
Both score in both halves	13.3%	10.8%	—	—	9.29

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	70.1%	79.6%	—	—	1.26
Both teams to score by HT	29.9%	20.4%	—	—	4.89

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	82.5%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
A half without a goal	17.5%	19.1%	—	—	5.23

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	50.1%	40.9%	37.3%	1.10×	2.44
2-3 goals	23.0%	22.8%	41.2%	0.55×	4.38
7+ goals	22.4%	22.8%	3.2%	7.05×	4.38
0-1 goals	4.4%	1.8%	18.5%	0.10×	54.34

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss to score exactly 1	36.3%	36.0%	30.7%	1.17×	2.78
TOP Oss to score exactly 0	31.2%	33.8%	27.5%	1.23×	2.96
TOP Oss to score exactly 2	21.2%	22.4%	23.5%	0.95×	4.47
TOP Oss to score 3+	11.3%	12.8%	18.5%	0.69×	7.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score 3+	72.7%	65.8%	25.4%	2.59×	1.52
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 2	16.4%	18.9%	25.9%	0.73×	5.29
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 1	8.7%	10.3%	30.5%	0.34×	9.71
Heracles Almelo to score exactly 0	2.3%	6.1%	18.5%	0.33×	16.38

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo leading at HT	66.2%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Draw at HT	23.6%	20.2%	—	—	4.95
TOP Oss leading at HT	10.2%	11.5%	—	—	8.66

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo -1: 1	68.3%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Heracles Almelo -1: 2	16.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.72
Heracles Almelo -1: X	15.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:1)	68.3%	65.5%	24.4%	2.69×	1.53
TOP Oss (0:1)	16.5%	17.8%	55.6%	0.32×	5.63
Draw (0:1)	15.2%	17.7%	20.1%	0.88×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (0:2)	50.1%	58.2%	11.9%	4.87×	1.72
TOP Oss (0:2)	31.7%	28.5%	75.6%	0.38×	3.51
Draw (0:2)	18.3%	15.3%	12.6%	1.22×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (0:3)	49.9%	50.6%	88.1%	0.57×	1.98
Heracles Almelo (0:3)	32.5%	27.1%	6.3%	4.28×	3.68
Draw (0:3)	17.6%	16.1%	5.7%	2.81×	6.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss (0:4)	67.5%	75.0%	93.7%	0.80×	1.33
Heracles Almelo (0:4)	18.5%	11.3%	2.1%	5.33×	8.87
Draw (0:4)	13.9%	9.7%	4.4%	2.22×	10.33

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (1:0)	92.8%	92.7%	66.5%	1.39×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	4.8%	3.2%	18.2%	0.18×	31.33
TOP Oss (1:0)	2.4%	3.2%	15.4%	0.20×	31.72

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo (2:0)	97.6%	96.9%	84.6%	1.15×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.7%	2.3%	8.8%	0.26×	44.26
TOP Oss (2:0)	0.7%	2.3%	6.7%	0.34×	44.33

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.3%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	28.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	17.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.34

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to concede	68.8%	66.6%	72.5%	0.92×	1.50
Heracles Almelo clean sheet	31.2%	33.4%	27.5%	1.22×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo clean sheet in 1st half	62.8%	64.2%	—	—	1.56
Heracles Almelo to concede in 1st half	37.2%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 corners	95.4%	94.9%	—	—	1.05
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 corners	89.6%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Heracles Almelo over 4.5 corners	81.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Heracles Almelo over 5.5 corners	70.4%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Heracles Almelo over 6.5 corners	58.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Heracles Almelo under 6.5 corners	41.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Heracles Almelo under 5.5 corners	29.6%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Heracles Almelo under 4.5 corners	18.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 corners	10.4%	13.7%	—	—	7.29
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 corners	4.6%	5.1%	—	—	19.47

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 goals	97.7%	96.4%	81.5%	1.18×	1.04
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 goals	89.1%	87.3%	51.1%	1.71×	1.15
Heracles Almelo over 2.5 goals	72.7%	74.2%	25.4%	2.92×	1.35
Heracles Almelo over 3.5 goals	52.0%	53.2%	10.2%	5.22×	1.88
Heracles Almelo under 3.5 goals	48.0%	46.8%	89.8%	0.52×	2.14
Heracles Almelo under 2.5 goals	27.3%	25.8%	74.6%	0.35×	3.87
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 goals	10.9%	12.7%	48.9%	0.26×	7.86
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 goals	2.3%	3.6%	18.5%	0.20×	27.51

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo over 0.5 in 1st half	80.3%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Heracles Almelo over 1.5 in 1st half	48.3%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Heracles Almelo under 1.5 in 1st half	51.7%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Heracles Almelo under 0.5 in 1st half	19.7%	15.9%	—	—	6.29

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.4%	56.7%	40.0%	1.42×	1.76
TOP Oss (home no bet)	43.6%	43.3%	60.0%	0.72×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo even goals	50.0%	50.6%	51.7%	0.98×	1.98
Heracles Almelo odd goals	50.0%	49.4%	48.3%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other HT score	23.2%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 1-0	20.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
HT 2-0	16.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 0-0	12.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 1-1	9.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-1	7.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.04
HT 0-1	5.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 1-2	2.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.45
HT 2-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 0-2	1.3%	2.3%	—	—	43.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	62.5%	65.1%	—	—	1.54
Draw at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	16.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
TOP Oss at HT / Heracles Almelo at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
TOP Oss at HT / TOP Oss at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Heracles Almelo at HT / Draw at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Draw at HT / TOP Oss at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
TOP Oss at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Heracles Almelo at HT / TOP Oss at FT	0.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to score last	75.9%	76.4%	—	—	1.31
TOP Oss to score last	23.5%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
No goal scored	0.6%	4.2%	—	—	23.87

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	99.4%	95.7%	—	—	1.05
Heracles Almelo to lead by 1 at any time	91.3%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	81.5%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Heracles Almelo to lead by 2 at any time	75.4%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	57.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Heracles Almelo to lead by 3 at any time	55.4%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
TOP Oss to lead by 1 at any time	28.3%	25.5%	—	—	3.93
TOP Oss to lead by 2 at any time	7.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.07
TOP Oss to lead by 3 at any time	1.6%	1.6%	—	—	62.70

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo most corners	69.5%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
TOP Oss most corners	22.5%	25.9%	—	—	3.86
Corners level	8.1%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	73.2%	72.4%	78.4%	0.92×	1.38
3-6 goals	64.6%	63.4%	59.1%	1.07×	1.58
1-5 goals	62.4%	63.4%	86.3%	0.73×	1.58
2-5 goals	58.6%	59.2%	72.5%	0.82×	1.69
4-6 goals	50.1%	53.2%	37.3%	1.43×	1.88
3-5 goals	50.0%	48.7%	53.2%	0.91×	2.06
1-4 goals	44.7%	43.6%	74.1%	0.59×	2.30
2-4 goals	40.9%	43.6%	60.3%	0.72×	2.30
4-5 goals	35.6%	39.1%	31.5%	1.24×	2.56
3-4 goals	32.3%	35.4%	41.0%	0.86×	2.83
5-6 goals	32.3%	35.4%	18.2%	1.95×	2.83
1-3 goals	26.9%	30.2%	55.0%	0.55×	3.31
2-3 goals	23.0%	24.5%	41.2%	0.59×	4.09
7+ goals	22.4%	24.5%	3.2%	7.57×	4.09
1-2 goals	12.4%	14.9%	33.2%	0.45×	6.72

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo never behind	71.2%	76.7%	—	—	1.30
TOP Oss never behind	8.2%	4.6%	—	—	21.52

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of goals	49.7%	50.8%	49.5%	1.03×	1.97
Odd number of goals	50.3%	49.2%	50.5%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	50.7%	51.6%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	49.3%	48.4%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	50.1%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	49.9%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	99.4%	95.5%	95.3%	1.00×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	81.5%	1.17×	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	87.0%	87.6%	62.2%	1.41×	1.14
Over 3.5 goals	72.6%	72.5%	40.4%	1.79×	1.38
Under 5.5 goals	63.0%	61.8%	90.9%	0.68×	1.62
Over 4.5 goals	54.7%	52.5%	21.3%	2.47×	1.91
Under 4.5 goals	45.3%	47.5%	78.7%	0.60×	2.11
Over 5.5 goals	37.0%	38.2%	9.1%	4.21×	2.62
Under 3.5 goals	27.4%	27.5%	59.6%	0.46×	3.64
Under 2.5 goals	13.0%	12.4%	37.8%	0.33×	8.09
Under 1.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	18.5%	0.24×	22.19
Under 0.5 goals	0.6%	4.5%	4.7%	0.95×	22.26

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	95.2%	97.2%	77.0%	1.26×	1.03
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	84.8%	81.1%	51.7%	1.57×	1.23
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	73.8%	72.6%	96.6%	0.75×	1.38
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	66.6%	67.4%	26.3%	2.56×	1.48
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	55.0%	55.4%	89.7%	0.62×	1.81
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	45.0%	44.6%	10.3%	4.31×	2.24
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	33.4%	32.6%	73.7%	0.44×	3.07
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	26.2%	27.4%	3.4%	7.98×	3.65
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	15.2%	18.9%	48.3%	0.39×	5.29
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	4.8%	2.8%	23.0%	0.12×	36.08

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 1st half	87.7%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Under 2.5 in 1st half	65.2%	68.9%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	61.8%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 1.5 in 1st half	38.2%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 2.5 in 1st half	34.8%	31.1%	—	—	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	12.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.08

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	94.3%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	77.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	54.1%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	45.9%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	22.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	5.7%	10.1%	—	—	9.92

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss not to score in both halves	81.3%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Heracles Almelo to score in both halves	71.0%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Heracles Almelo not to score in both halves	29.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
TOP Oss to score in both halves	18.7%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	67.0%	59.5%	58.7%	1.01×	1.68
Only Heracles Almelo scores	30.7%	33.3%	22.9%	1.46×	3.00
Only TOP Oss scores	1.7%	4.6%	13.9%	0.33×	21.92
Neither team scores	0.6%	4.6%	4.7%	0.96×	21.97

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
6 or more goals	37.0%	27.4%	9.1%	3.02×	3.65
Exactly 4 goals	17.9%	17.4%	19.3%	0.90×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	17.7%	17.4%	12.3%	1.42×	5.74
Exactly 3 goals	14.4%	12.1%	21.9%	0.55×	8.27
Exactly 2 goals	8.6%	7.6%	19.4%	0.39×	13.08
Exactly 1 goals	3.8%	4.4%	13.9%	0.32×	22.66
Exactly 0 goals	0.6%	4.4%	4.7%	0.93×	22.71

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	77.6%	76.2%	—	—	1.31
1 goal in 2nd half	16.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.84
No goals in 2nd half	5.7%	9.5%	—	—	10.54

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss not to win both halves	98.9%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Heracles Almelo to win both halves	46.9%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Heracles Almelo not to win both halves	53.1%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
TOP Oss to win both halves	1.1%	2.7%	—	—	36.83

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo to win either half	90.2%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
TOP Oss to win neither half	80.0%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
TOP Oss to win either half	20.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.74
Heracles Almelo to win neither half	9.8%	8.1%	—	—	12.40

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
TOP Oss not to win to nil	98.3%	96.2%	86.1%	1.12×	1.04
Heracles Almelo not to win to nil	69.3%	69.7%	77.1%	0.90×	1.44
Heracles Almelo to win to nil	30.7%	30.3%	22.9%	1.32×	3.30
TOP Oss to win to nil	1.7%	3.8%	13.9%	0.27×	26.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Heracles Almelo by 3+	50.1%	44.6%	11.9%	3.74×	2.24
Heracles Almelo by 2	18.3%	16.9%	12.6%	1.35×	5.91
Heracles Almelo by 1	15.2%	16.9%	20.1%	0.84×	5.91
Draw	9.3%	7.3%	22.3%	0.33×	13.77
TOP Oss by 1	4.8%	2.7%	18.2%	0.15×	36.93
TOP Oss by 2	1.7%	2.7%	8.8%	0.31×	37.03
TOP Oss by 3+	0.7%	2.7%	6.7%	0.40×	37.06