Hoffenheim v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 11
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.80 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.95 – +0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
29.4%
Draw
29.4%
Augsburg win
41.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Augsburg are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDWDWWLWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.8 xG
conceded 17
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.55 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 1.95 xGAugsburg 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
 Augsburg |
Phillip Tietz | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fredrik Jensen |
| 10' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 17' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 24' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.60 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Marius Bülter |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Marius Bülter | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Augsburg |
Frank Onyeka | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 37' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 45' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cédric Zesiger |
| 49' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Augsburg |
Fredrik Jensen | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chrislain Matsima |
| 56' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 56' |
Hoffenheim |
Tom Bischof | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leo Østigard |
| 57' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fredrik Jensen |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 65' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Claude Maurice |
| 65' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 68' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Dennis Geiger |
| 70' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 77' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristijan Jakic |
| 79' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Elvis Rexhbecaj |
| 85' |
Augsburg |
Arne Maier | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexis Claude Maurice AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.09 | 0.61 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.49 |
| Jeffrey Gouweleeuw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Fredrik Jensen AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Frank Onyeka MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Marius Wolf DMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Phillip Tietz FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Samuel Essende Sub | 43 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.12 |
| Henri Koudossou Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Arne Maier Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Mads Pedersen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.80 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Marius Bülter AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| Tom Bischof DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Chaves DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Anton Stach DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.61 |
| David Jurásek DL | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Bazoumana Touré AMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.75 | 0.20 | 0.84 |
| Gift Orban FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Pavel Kaderábek DR | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Haris Tabakovic Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dennis Geiger Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Stanley N'Soki Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |