Hoffenheim v Augsburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 15
On target
3 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 8
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.04
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+1.16 – -0.66
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hoffenheim win
55.1%
Draw
23.4%
Augsburg win
21.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLDWWDWLLL last 10
scored 15
from 17.9 xG
conceded 24
from 19.0 xG
Augsburg are finishing sharply below their chances — 6.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWDWWLW last 10
scored 17
from 23.1 xG
conceded 18
from 20.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.90–1.11 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.59–1.05 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 52% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hoffenheim 1.84 xGAugsburg 0.66 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hoffenheim attacking right
Augsburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 3' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Grischa Prömel |
| 6' |
 Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Anton Kade |
| 10' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 14' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 15' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Wouter Burger |
| 18' |
Augsburg |
Dimitris Giannoulis | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 22' |
Hoffenheim |
Leon Avdullahu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Grischa Prömel | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Vladimir Coufal |
| 25' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 29' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Leon Avdullahu |
| 32' |
Augsburg |
Mert Kömür | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Anton Kade |
| 32' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabian Rieder |
| 33' |
Hoffenheim |
Fisnik Asllani | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bazoumana Touré |
| 40' |
Augsburg |
Dimitris Giannoulis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Hoffenheim |
Wouter Burger | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bernardo |
| 44' |
Augsburg |
Cédric Zesiger | 0.00 | Open Play | Left Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 47' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Dimitris Giannoulis |
| 48' |
Augsburg |
Samuel Essende | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Anton Kade |
| 49' |
Augsburg |
Robin Fellhauer | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Finn Dahmen |
| 57' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 63' |
Hoffenheim |
Tim Lemperle | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 72' |
Augsburg |
Anton Kade | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Augsburg |
Fabian Rieder | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 76' |
Hoffenheim |
Andrej Kramaric | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tim Lemperle |
| 78' |
Hoffenheim |
Ozan Kabak | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Wouter Burger |
| 80' |
Augsburg |
Elvis Rexhbecaj | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Noahkai Banks |
| 86' |
Augsburg |
Marius Wolf | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 88' |
Augsburg |
Alexis Claude Maurice | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Robin Fellhauer |
Players
Augsburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Essende FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Fabian Rieder AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Robin Fellhauer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.13 |
| Chrislain Matsima DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Finn Dahmen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Noahkai Banks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Anton Kade DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.20 | 0.38 |
| Cédric Zesiger DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Dimitris Giannoulis DML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.25 |
| Mert Kömür AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Han-Noah Massengo MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Elvis Rexhbecaj Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Kristijan Jakic Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Phillip Tietz Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Wolf Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Alexis Claude Maurice Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wouter Burger MC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.31 | 1.28 |
| Leon Avdullahu DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| Albian Hajdari DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Vladimir Coufal DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.69 |
| Robin Hranác DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Tim Lemperle FW | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.32 |
| Grischa Prömel MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| Bernardo DL | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| Fisnik Asllani AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Bazoumana Touré FW | 61 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.15 | 0.61 |
| Andrej Kramaric Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Max Moerstedt Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ozan Kabak Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alexander Prass Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Muhammed Damar Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |