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Hoffenheim v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 23 November 2024 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425

Bundesliga xG

Shots
21 – 14
On target
7 – 6
Shots in box
14 – 9
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.48
Goals − xG
+1.40 – +1.27
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.52.22.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Willi Orban 14' — goalAdam Hlozek 16' — goalAntonio Nusa 18' — goalTom Bischof 49' — goalAdam Hlozek 81' — goalJacob Bruun Larsen 85' — goal
Hoffenheim 2.60 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 1.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Haris Tabakovic 3' — Missed Shot (0.54 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 5' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Marius Bülter 6' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Benjamin Sesko 10' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Willi Orban 14' — Goal (0.58 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 16' — Goal (0.45 xG, Open Play)Antonio Nusa 18' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 19' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Castello Lukeba 23' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Loïs Openda 23' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 24' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 27' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 27' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Pavel Kaderábek 29' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Haris Tabakovic 32' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Loïs Openda 36' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Anton Stach 43' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 45' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Haris Tabakovic 45' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Haris Tabakovic 47' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Tom Bischof 49' — Goal (0.09 xG, Direct Freekick)Loïs Openda 52' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Haris Tabakovic 54' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Willi Orban 62' — Saved Shot (0.35 xG, From Corner)Assan Ouédraogo 65' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Stanley N'Soki 66' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 68' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Arthur Chaves 68' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Christoph Baumgartner 75' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Adam Hlozek 81' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Arthur Chaves 85' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Jacob Bruun Larsen 85' — Goal (0.20 xG, From Corner)André Silva 91' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Direct Freekick)André Silva 91' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Christoph Baumgartner 94' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)
Hoffenheim attacking right RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Hoffenheim Haris Tabakovic 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marius Bülter
5' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Haris Tabakovic
6' Hoffenheim Marius Bülter 0.11 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Tom Bischof
10' RasenBallsport Leipzig Benjamin Sesko 0.11 Open Play Missed Shot Castello Lukeba
14' RasenBallsport Leipzig Willi Orban 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Goal Antonio Nusa
16' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.45 Open Play Right Foot Goal Alexander Prass
18' RasenBallsport Leipzig Antonio Nusa 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Loïs Openda
19' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
23' RasenBallsport Leipzig Castello Lukeba 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
23' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Christoph Baumgartner
24' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Marius Bülter
27' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
27' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
29' Hoffenheim Pavel Kaderábek 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Adam Hlozek
32' Hoffenheim Haris Tabakovic 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Pavel Kaderábek
36' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Kevin Kampl
43' Hoffenheim Anton Stach 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Alexander Prass
45' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
45' Hoffenheim Haris Tabakovic 0.09 Open Play Blocked Shot Marius Bülter
47' Hoffenheim Haris Tabakovic 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Alexander Prass
49' Hoffenheim Tom Bischof 0.09 Direct Freekick Left Foot Goal
52' RasenBallsport Leipzig Loïs Openda 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Benjamin Henrichs
54' Hoffenheim Haris Tabakovic 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marius Bülter
62' RasenBallsport Leipzig Willi Orban 0.35 From Corner Saved Shot Kevin Kampl
65' RasenBallsport Leipzig Assan Ouédraogo 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Loïs Openda
66' Hoffenheim Stanley N'Soki 0.00 Open Play Left Foot Own Goal
68' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Tom Bischof
68' Hoffenheim Arthur Chaves 0.06 From Corner Blocked Shot Tom Bischof
75' RasenBallsport Leipzig Christoph Baumgartner 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
81' Hoffenheim Adam Hlozek 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Goal Jacob Bruun Larsen
85' Hoffenheim Arthur Chaves 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Umut Tohumcu
85' Hoffenheim Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.20 From Corner Goal Anton Stach
91' RasenBallsport Leipzig André Silva 0.10 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
91' RasenBallsport Leipzig André Silva 0.02 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot
94' RasenBallsport Leipzig Christoph Baumgartner 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot Antonio Nusa

Players

Hoffenheim

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adam Hlozek AMR 90 2 0 7 1 0.76 0.03 0.83
Arthur Chaves DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.67
Marius Bülter AML 90 0 0 1 4 0.11 0.84 1.49
Pavel Kaderábek DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.04 1.16
Anton Stach DMC 90 0 1 1 1 0.02 0.20 1.25
Oliver Baumann GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Stanley N'Soki DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.67
Alexander Prass DL 87 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.93 1.65
Tom Bischof DMC 82 1 0 2 3 0.11 0.19 1.25
Andrej Kramaric AMC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Haris Tabakovic FW 62 0 0 5 1 1.24 0.05 1.29
Mërgim Berisha Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub 8 1 1 1 1 0.20 0.07 0.07
Umut Tohumcu Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.00
Kevin Akpoguma Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

RasenBallsport Leipzig

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Willi Orban DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.92 0.00 0.99
Christoph Baumgartner AMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.11 0.34
Antonio Nusa DML 90 1 1 1 2 0.07 0.63 0.98
Castello Lukeba DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.11 0.88
Benjamin Henrichs DMR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.13
Péter Gulácsi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Loïs Openda FW 83 0 1 4 2 0.37 0.09 0.58
Kevin Kampl MC 77 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.47 1.05
Benjamin Sesko AMC 61 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.17
Arthur Vermeeren MC 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.84
Lukas Klostermann DC 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Lutsharel Geertruida Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Assan Ouédraogo Sub 29 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Nicolas Seiwald Sub 29 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Amadou Haidara Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
André Silva Sub 7 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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