Holstein Kiel v Hertha Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Holstein Kiel

14:00

Hertha Berlin

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,004h before kick-off

Holstein Kiel win

41.1%

model 40.6%

Draw

27.3%

model 26.6%

Hertha Berlin win

31.6%

model 32.7%

412732

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.7%
1-0 9.4%
2-1 8.7%
0-1 8.2%
1-2 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.1%	Under 2.5	49.9%
BTTS yes	54.7%	BTTS no	45.3%
Holstein Kiel 1+	75.9%	Holstein Kiel 2+	41.7%
Hertha Berlin 1+	71.5%	Hertha Berlin 2+	35.7%

Expected goals 1.43 – 1.25. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

21/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Holstein Kiel.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Holstein Kiel have an estimated 41.1% win probability, against 31.6% for Hertha Berlin and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Holstein Kiel and 1.25 for Hertha Berlin.

Why Holstein Kiel

Nothing in the data singles out Holstein Kiel.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.43 to 1.25. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Hertha Berlin can win

Hertha Berlin carry the stronger rating, 1556 Elo against 1426. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Holstein Kiel's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Steven Skrzybski (0.28), Phil Harres (0.26), Shuto Machino (0.23).

Availability

1 of Holstein Kiel's top three contributors did not start their last match. Holstein Kiel had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.05 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Holstein Kiel: Carl Johansson (suspended). No lineup on record for Hertha Berlin, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Holstein Kiel: 59% possession, 13.2 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.31 xG a match from set pieces. Hertha Berlin: 46% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 19.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Holstein Kiel are the model's most likely outcome at 41.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.7%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Holstein Kiel have scored 14 from 13.7 expected and conceded 21 from 20.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

DLLDLDWWLL last 10 scored 14 from 13.7 xG conceded 21 from 20.2 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	362836	1.25–1.25	1-1 13%	46%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to win	36.1%	36.4%	43.1%	0.85×	2.75
Hertha Berlin to win	36.1%	36.4%	31.2%	1.17×	2.75
Draw	27.8%	27.9%	25.9%	1.08×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin & not both score	20.0%	21.9%	13.3%	1.65×	4.57
Holstein Kiel & not both score	20.0%	21.9%	21.1%	1.04×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.2%	17.9%	19.7%	0.91×	5.58
Hertha Berlin & both teams score	16.1%	17.9%	18.1%	0.99×	5.58
Holstein Kiel & both teams score	16.1%	17.9%	22.2%	0.81×	5.58
Draw & not both score	8.6%	8.4%	6.4%	1.31×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin & under 3.5	26.9%	26.0%	21.1%	1.24×	3.84
Holstein Kiel & under 3.5	26.9%	26.0%	27.8%	0.94×	3.84
Hertha Berlin & over 1.5	26.3%	26.0%	25.9%	1.00×	3.84
Holstein Kiel & over 1.5	26.3%	26.0%	34.3%	0.76×	3.84
Draw & under 2.5	21.9%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	21.9%	21.7%	16.8%	1.29×	4.62
Hertha Berlin & over 2.5	19.8%	18.0%	22.2%	0.81×	5.56
Holstein Kiel & over 2.5	19.8%	18.0%	27.8%	0.65×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.2%	18.0%	19.7%	0.92×	5.56
Hertha Berlin & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	9.2%	1.95×	5.56
Holstein Kiel & under 2.5	16.2%	18.0%	15.4%	1.16×	5.56
Hertha Berlin & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	5.5%	1.44×	12.69
Hertha Berlin & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	10.3%	0.77×	12.69
Holstein Kiel & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.69
Holstein Kiel & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	15.4%	0.51×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	8.6%	7.9%	6.4%	1.23×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (1UP)	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Hertha Berlin (1UP)	52.1%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (2UP)	36.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.70
Hertha Berlin (2UP)	36.1%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	37.6%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Hertha Berlin to win 2nd half	32.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Holstein Kiel to win 2nd half	30.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (+2.5)	94.6%	92.1%	90.6%	1.02×	1.09
Hertha Berlin (+1.5)	84.2%	82.4%	77.7%	1.06×	1.21
Hertha Berlin (+0.5)	63.9%	62.9%	56.9%	1.11×	1.59
Holstein Kiel (+0.5)	63.9%	62.9%	68.8%	0.91×	1.59
Holstein Kiel (-0.5)	36.1%	37.1%	43.1%	0.86×	2.70
Hertha Berlin (-0.5)	36.1%	37.1%	31.2%	1.19×	2.70
Holstein Kiel (-1.5)	15.8%	17.6%	22.3%	0.79×	5.69
Holstein Kiel (-2.5)	5.4%	7.9%	9.4%	0.84×	12.65

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to concede	71.4%	76.4%	80.5%	0.95×	1.31
Hertha Berlin clean sheet	28.6%	23.6%	19.5%	1.21×	4.24

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin clean sheet in 1st half	58.4%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Hertha Berlin to concede in 1st half	41.6%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 corners	80.1%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Hertha Berlin under 6.5 corners	77.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Hertha Berlin under 5.5 corners	65.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 corners	64.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Hertha Berlin under 4.5 corners	51.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Hertha Berlin over 4.5 corners	48.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 corners	35.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Hertha Berlin over 5.5 corners	34.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Hertha Berlin over 6.5 corners	22.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 corners	19.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin under 3.5 goals	96.2%	97.5%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Hertha Berlin under 2.5 goals	86.8%	87.9%	83.6%	1.05×	1.14
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 goals	71.4%	71.9%	72.7%	0.99×	1.39
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 goals	64.4%	63.0%	60.2%	1.05×	1.59
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 goals	35.6%	37.0%	39.8%	0.93×	2.70
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 goals	28.6%	28.1%	27.3%	1.03×	3.56
Hertha Berlin over 2.5 goals	13.2%	12.1%	16.4%	0.74×	8.25
Hertha Berlin over 3.5 goals	3.8%	2.5%	5.5%	0.45×	40.68

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin under 1.5 in 1st half	91.0%	94.1%	—	—	1.06
Hertha Berlin under 0.5 in 1st half	60.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Hertha Berlin over 0.5 in 1st half	39.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Hertha Berlin over 1.5 in 1st half	9.0%	5.9%	—	—	17.01

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (away no bet)	56.4%	57.4%	62.4%	0.92×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.6%	42.6%	37.6%	1.13×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin even goals	54.1%	52.8%	54.1%	0.98×	1.89
Hertha Berlin odd goals	45.9%	47.2%	45.9%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.0%	87.7%	—	—	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	12.0%	12.3%	—	—	8.15

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	59.1%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
Both halves under 1.5 goals	40.9%	39.6%	—	—	2.53

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.9%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Holstein Kiel to score 2+ in a row	28.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Hertha Berlin to score 2+ in a row	28.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	16.4%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Holstein Kiel to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.62
Hertha Berlin to score 3+ in a row	8.3%	5.7%	—	—	17.62

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel corners (+3.5)	88.1%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Holstein Kiel corners (+2.5)	82.1%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Hertha Berlin corners (+3.5)	75.0%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Holstein Kiel corners (+1.5)	74.3%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Hertha Berlin corners (+2.5)	66.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Hertha Berlin corners (+1.5)	56.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Holstein Kiel corners (-1.5)	44.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Holstein Kiel corners (-2.5)	33.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Hertha Berlin corners (-1.5)	25.7%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Holstein Kiel corners (-3.5)	25.0%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Hertha Berlin corners (-2.5)	17.9%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Hertha Berlin corners (-3.5)	11.9%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	36.6%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	33.0%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	76.6%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	71.9%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	67.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	63.4%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	56.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	53.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	46.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	43.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	36.6%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	33.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	28.1%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	23.4%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	13.2%	11.5%	10.6%	1.08×	8.73
0-0	8.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.48
0-1	9.8%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.48
1-0	9.8%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.48
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.48
2-1	8.0%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.48
0-2	6.4%	7.4%	3.9%	1.90×	13.48
2-0	6.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
2-2	5.0%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.48
0-3	2.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.47
0-4	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.49
1-3	3.3%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.47
1-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.48
2-3	2.1%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.48
2-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
3-0	2.7%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
3-1	3.3%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.47
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.48
3-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
3-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.49
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.49
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
4-2	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.49
4-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49
Any other score	1.8%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel leading at HT (DNB)	52.3%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Hertha Berlin leading at HT (DNB)	47.7%	44.1%	—	—	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel or Hertha Berlin (12)	72.2%	72.1%	74.1%	0.97×	1.39
Holstein Kiel or draw (1X)	63.9%	63.6%	68.8%	0.92×	1.57
Hertha Berlin or draw (X2)	63.9%	63.6%	56.9%	1.12×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel or draw at HT	74.1%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Hertha Berlin or draw at HT	71.6%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Holstein Kiel or Hertha Berlin at HT	54.3%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel or draw (1UP)	63.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Hertha Berlin or draw (1UP)	63.9%	71.8%	—	—	1.39

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin or draw in 2nd half	69.9%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Holstein Kiel or draw in 2nd half	67.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Holstein Kiel or Hertha Berlin in 2nd half	62.4%	63.9%	—	—	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.7%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	34.3%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (DNB)	50.0%	50.9%	58.0%	0.88×	1.97
Hertha Berlin (DNB)	50.0%	49.1%	42.0%	1.17×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to score first	45.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
Hertha Berlin to score first	45.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	8.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.23

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	51.4%	51.4%	59.6%	0.86×	1.95
Not both teams to score	48.6%	48.6%	40.4%	1.20×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	41.1%	41.6%	30.7%	1.35×	2.40
Both score & over 2.5	38.1%	38.5%	49.1%	0.78×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	13.2%	12.3%	10.6%	1.16×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	7.5%	8.4%	9.8%	0.85×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	87.3%	85.6%	80.5%	1.06×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	12.7%	14.4%	19.5%	0.74×	6.95

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	72.9%	74.1%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	27.1%	25.9%	—	—	3.86

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	60.9%	66.3%	—	—	1.51
Both score 2nd half only	22.7%	20.8%	—	—	4.80
Both score 1st half only	12.0%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score in both halves	4.4%	5.0%	—	—	19.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	83.5%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	16.5%	17.6%	—	—	5.69

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
A goal in each half	49.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.5%	47.4%	45.1%	1.05×	2.11
0-1 goals	28.3%	26.5%	20.4%	1.29×	3.78
4-6 goals	22.9%	22.8%	30.6%	0.75×	4.38
7+ goals	1.4%	1.8%	4.2%	0.43×	54.66

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 1	35.8%	36.0%	33.1%	1.09×	2.78
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 0	28.6%	27.4%	27.3%	1.00×	3.65
Hertha Berlin to score exactly 2	22.4%	22.4%	23.6%	0.95×	4.46
Hertha Berlin to score 3+	13.2%	12.8%	16.4%	0.78×	7.80

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to score exactly 1	35.8%	35.6%	31.8%	1.12×	2.81
Holstein Kiel to score exactly 0	28.6%	26.5%	19.5%	1.36×	3.77
Holstein Kiel to score exactly 2	22.4%	23.2%	26.4%	0.88×	4.30
Holstein Kiel to score 3+	13.2%	14.3%	22.6%	0.63×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	45.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Holstein Kiel leading at HT	28.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.89
Hertha Berlin leading at HT	25.9%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel -1: 2	63.9%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Holstein Kiel -1: X	20.2%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Holstein Kiel -1: 1	15.8%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:1)	63.9%	61.5%	56.9%	1.08×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	20.2%	24.3%	20.9%	1.16×	4.12
Holstein Kiel (0:1)	15.8%	17.8%	22.3%	0.80×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:2)	84.2%	82.8%	77.7%	1.07×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	10.5%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.13
Holstein Kiel (0:2)	5.4%	7.7%	9.4%	0.82×	12.97

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:3)	94.6%	92.6%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	3.9%	2.4%	5.9%	0.40×	42.09
Holstein Kiel (0:3)	1.5%	2.4%	3.6%	0.66×	42.20

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (0:4)	98.5%	98.1%	96.4%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.1%	1.2%	2.0%	0.59×	83.55
Holstein Kiel (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (1:0)	63.9%	65.1%	68.8%	0.95×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	20.2%	21.8%	18.1%	1.20×	4.60
Hertha Berlin (1:0)	15.8%	17.0%	13.3%	1.28×	5.88

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel (2:0)	84.2%	84.6%	86.7%	0.97×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.5%	10.4%	7.2%	1.44×	9.65
Hertha Berlin (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	6.2%	1.03×	15.51

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.6%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	26.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.5%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to concede	71.4%	73.0%	72.7%	1.00×	1.37
Holstein Kiel clean sheet	28.6%	27.0%	27.3%	0.99×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel clean sheet in 1st half	60.6%	64.1%	—	—	1.56
Holstein Kiel to concede in 1st half	39.4%	35.9%	—	—	2.78

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel over 2.5 corners	87.7%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Holstein Kiel over 3.5 corners	76.3%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Holstein Kiel under 6.5 corners	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Holstein Kiel over 4.5 corners	62.6%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Holstein Kiel under 5.5 corners	51.5%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Holstein Kiel over 5.5 corners	48.5%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Holstein Kiel under 4.5 corners	37.4%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Holstein Kiel over 6.5 corners	35.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Holstein Kiel under 3.5 corners	23.7%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Holstein Kiel under 2.5 corners	12.3%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel under 3.5 goals	96.2%	96.4%	92.4%	1.04×	1.04
Holstein Kiel under 2.5 goals	86.8%	87.3%	77.4%	1.13×	1.15
Holstein Kiel over 0.5 goals	71.4%	74.2%	80.5%	0.92×	1.35
Holstein Kiel under 1.5 goals	64.4%	63.5%	51.2%	1.24×	1.58
Holstein Kiel over 1.5 goals	35.6%	36.5%	48.8%	0.75×	2.74
Holstein Kiel under 0.5 goals	28.6%	25.8%	19.5%	1.32×	3.87
Holstein Kiel over 2.5 goals	13.2%	12.7%	22.6%	0.56×	7.85
Holstein Kiel over 3.5 goals	3.8%	3.6%	7.6%	0.48×	27.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel under 1.5 in 1st half	89.8%	89.9%	—	—	1.11
Holstein Kiel under 0.5 in 1st half	58.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Holstein Kiel over 0.5 in 1st half	41.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39
Holstein Kiel over 1.5 in 1st half	10.2%	10.1%	—	—	9.87

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin (home no bet)	56.4%	56.7%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	43.6%	43.3%	45.4%	0.96×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel even goals	54.1%	50.6%	50.9%	1.00×	1.97
Holstein Kiel odd goals	45.9%	49.4%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	35.5%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
HT 1-0	19.0%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	17.6%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	9.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 2-0	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 0-2	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.28
Any other HT score	3.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.38
HT 2-1	2.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.42
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 2-2	0.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel at HT / Holstein Kiel at FT	20.6%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Hertha Berlin at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT	19.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	17.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT	14.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Draw at HT / Holstein Kiel at FT	13.5%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Holstein Kiel at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Hertha Berlin at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Holstein Kiel at HT / Hertha Berlin at FT	2.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Hertha Berlin at HT / Holstein Kiel at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.89

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel to score last	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
Hertha Berlin to score last	45.7%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
No goal scored	8.6%	7.6%	—	—	13.23

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.4%	92.5%	—	—	1.08
Holstein Kiel to lead by 1 at any time	52.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Hertha Berlin to lead by 1 at any time	52.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	42.3%	39.3%	—	—	2.55
Holstein Kiel to lead by 2 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Hertha Berlin to lead by 2 at any time	21.2%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	13.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Holstein Kiel to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.09
Hertha Berlin to lead by 3 at any time	6.8%	6.6%	—	—	15.09

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel most corners	54.7%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Hertha Berlin most corners	35.0%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	10.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.2%	87.4%	84.6%	1.03×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.5%	83.5%	75.5%	1.11×	1.20
2-6 goals	70.3%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
2-5 goals	67.5%	69.0%	70.5%	0.98×	1.45
1-3 goals	67.1%	69.0%	59.1%	1.17×	1.45
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.4%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
2-3 goals	47.5%	48.7%	45.1%	1.08×	2.06
1-2 goals	45.7%	48.7%	34.9%	1.39×	2.06
3-6 goals	44.2%	43.6%	54.8%	0.80×	2.30
3-5 goals	41.5%	43.6%	49.8%	0.88×	2.30
3-4 goals	34.8%	35.4%	40.7%	0.87×	2.83
4-6 goals	22.9%	24.5%	30.6%	0.80×	4.09
4-5 goals	20.1%	24.5%	25.6%	0.96×	4.09
5-6 goals	9.5%	8.7%	14.2%	0.62×	11.43
7+ goals	1.4%	2.5%	4.2%	0.60×	39.27

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel never behind	39.2%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Hertha Berlin never behind	39.2%	44.8%	—	—	2.23

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.8%	50.8%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.2%	49.2%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	56.4%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	43.6%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.0%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	95.8%	95.5%	90.8%	1.05×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	93.6%	0.99×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.1%	87.7%	81.7%	1.07×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	75.7%	77.3%	65.4%	1.18×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	71.7%	72.5%	79.6%	0.91×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	54.3%	52.5%	41.2%	1.27×	1.91
Over 2.5 goals	45.7%	47.5%	58.8%	0.81×	2.11
Under 1.5 goals	28.3%	27.5%	20.4%	1.34×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	24.3%	22.7%	34.6%	0.65×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	10.9%	12.3%	18.3%	0.68×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	6.4%	1.21×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	4.2%	4.5%	9.2%	0.49×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.5%	97.2%	95.6%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.5%	97.2%	89.9%	1.08×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	87.4%	86.7%	78.2%	1.11×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	69.1%	67.4%	54.3%	1.24×	1.48
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	61.8%	62.1%	74.2%	0.84×	1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	38.2%	37.9%	25.8%	1.47×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	30.9%	32.6%	45.7%	0.71×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	12.6%	13.3%	21.8%	0.61×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.5%	2.8%	10.1%	0.27×	36.09
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.5%	2.8%	4.4%	0.62×	36.18

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	91.3%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	72.1%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half	64.5%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	35.5%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	27.9%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	8.7%	7.4%	—	—	13.53

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	81.8%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	76.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	56.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	43.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	23.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	18.2%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin not to score in both halves	79.2%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Holstein Kiel not to score in both halves	78.8%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Holstein Kiel to score in both halves	21.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.61
Hertha Berlin to score in both halves	20.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	51.4%	53.9%	59.6%	0.90×	1.86
Only Holstein Kiel scores	20.0%	22.3%	21.1%	1.06×	4.48
Only Hertha Berlin scores	20.0%	22.3%	13.3%	1.68×	4.48
Neither team scores	8.6%	7.2%	6.4%	1.13×	13.90

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.1%	25.0%	20.9%	1.19×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	21.4%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	19.6%	17.4%	14.2%	1.23×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	13.4%	12.1%	16.5%	0.73×	8.27
Exactly 0 goals	8.6%	7.6%	6.4%	1.20×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	6.7%	7.6%	9.2%	0.83×	13.09
6 or more goals	4.2%	4.4%	9.2%	0.48×	22.65

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	43.1%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
1 goal in 2nd half	33.6%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	23.3%	23.1%	—	—	4.32

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin not to win both halves	91.6%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Holstein Kiel not to win both halves	91.4%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Holstein Kiel to win both halves	8.6%	6.1%	—	—	16.44
Hertha Berlin to win both halves	8.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.45

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Hertha Berlin to win neither half	50.2%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Holstein Kiel to win neither half	50.1%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Holstein Kiel to win either half	49.9%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Hertha Berlin to win either half	49.8%	45.1%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Holstein Kiel not to win to nil	80.0%	78.1%	78.9%	0.99×	1.28
Hertha Berlin not to win to nil	80.0%	78.1%	86.7%	0.90×	1.28
Holstein Kiel to win to nil	20.0%	21.9%	21.1%	1.04×	4.56
Hertha Berlin to win to nil	20.0%	21.9%	13.3%	1.65×	4.56

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.8%	27.9%	25.9%	1.08×	3.59
Holstein Kiel by 1	20.2%	24.1%	20.9%	1.15×	4.14
Hertha Berlin by 1	20.2%	24.1%	18.1%	1.33×	4.14
Holstein Kiel by 2	10.5%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.48
Hertha Berlin by 2	10.5%	11.8%	7.2%	1.64×	8.48
Holstein Kiel by 3+	5.4%	7.3%	9.4%	0.77×	13.79
Hertha Berlin by 3+	5.4%	7.3%	6.2%	1.16×	13.79