Hull v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 13
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Hull win
33.1%
Draw
27.2%
Aston Villa win
39.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.16–1.30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-goals | 1.54–0.62 | 1-0 17% | 37% | 37% | |
| dc-xg | 1.28–1.25 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 52% | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.31 | 1-1 13% | 48% | 53% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Hull 0.81 xGAston Villa 1.65 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Hull attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Aston Villa |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 6' |
 Hull |
Nobel Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 12' |
Aston Villa |
George Hemmings | 0.26 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 12' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Aston Villa |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 18' |
Hull |
Nobel Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Belloumi |
| 24' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Victor Lindelöf |
| 33' |
Hull |
Regan Slater | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Hull |
Mohamed Belloumi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Gourna Douath |
| 37' |
Hull |
Regan Slater | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ryan John Giles |
| 39' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boubacar Kamara |
| 48' |
Hull |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Elliot Stroud |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.46 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 50' |
Hull |
Elliot Stroud | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Gourna Douath |
| 52' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | George Hemmings |
| 64' |
Hull |
Mohamed Belloumi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Regan Slater |
| 71' |
Hull |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Sorba Thomas |
| 75' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Victor Lindelöf |
| 80' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Aston Villa |
Tyrone Mings | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 88' |
Hull |
Mohamed Ali-Cho | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Oliver McBurnie |
| 89' |
Hull |
Oliver McBurnie | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ryan John Giles |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John McGinn AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Ross Barkley DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.34 | 1.37 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Boubacar Kamara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.79 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Victor Lindelöf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.69 |
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.46 | 0.59 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.77 |
| Emiliano Buendía AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 1.24 |
| George Hemmings AML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.40 | 0.77 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.24 |
| Alysson Edward Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Garnacho Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Ruggeri Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tammy Abraham Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Hull
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver McBurnie FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.68 |
| Regan Slater MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Konstantinos Tzolakis GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| John Egan DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Ryan John Giles DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| Semi Ajayi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Mohamed Belloumi MR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Lucas Gourna Douath MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Nobel Mendy DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lewie Coyle DR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Elliot Stroud ML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Sorba Thomas Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.64 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Lucas Herrington Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Mohamed Ali-Cho Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Jens Hjertø-Dahl Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |