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IF Elfsborg v Halmstads BK — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 12 October 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
IF Elfsborg win
59.2%
model 61.1%
Draw
22.5%
model 22.8%
Halmstads BK win
18.3%
model 16.1%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (1,523 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-0 11.2%
  2. 1-0 11.1%
  3. 1-1 10.9%
  4. 2-1 9.9%
  5. 3-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.553.0% Under 2.547.0%
BTTS yes50.5% BTTS no49.5%
IF Elfsborg 1+85.3% IF Elfsborg 2+57.1%
Halmstads BK 1+58.6% Halmstads BK 2+22.1%

Expected goals 1.92 – 0.88. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • IF Elfsborg carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1353.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

IF Elfsborg have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 22.5% for the draw and 18.3% for Halmstads BK. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.92 for IF Elfsborg and 0.88 for Halmstads BK.

Why IF Elfsborg

IF Elfsborg carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1353. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Halmstads BK can win

Nothing in the data singles out Halmstads BK.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for IF Elfsborg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Halmstads BK, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

IF Elfsborg: 53% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Halmstads BK: 42% possession, 15.6 shots a match, 19.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. IF Elfsborg's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

IF Elfsborg are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 11.2%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.74–0.72 1-0 14% 45% 43%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg to win 61.1% 58.1% 40.7% 1.43× 1.72
Draw 24.3% 24.5% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
Halmstads BK to win 14.6% 13.4% 36.6% 0.36× 7.49
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg & not both score 39.4% 33.2% 23.7% 1.41× 3.01
IF Elfsborg & both teams score 21.7% 21.9% 17.3% 1.27× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 15.2% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.59
Draw & not both score 9.1% 8.4% 5.3% 1.57× 11.92
Halmstads BK & not both score 8.5% 8.4% 18.8% 0.45× 11.92
Halmstads BK & both teams score 6.1% 8.4% 18.1% 0.46× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg & over 1.5 46.9% 45.2% 34.6% 1.31× 2.21
IF Elfsborg & under 3.5 43.9% 40.3% 26.2% 1.54× 2.48
IF Elfsborg & over 2.5 34.0% 30.9% 25.4% 1.21× 3.24
IF Elfsborg & under 2.5 27.1% 26.0% 15.5% 1.68× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 20.4% 21.6% 18.1% 1.20× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 20.4% 21.6% 18.1% 1.20× 4.62
IF Elfsborg & over 3.5 17.2% 18.0% 14.8% 1.22× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.2% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
IF Elfsborg & under 1.5 14.2% 12.9% 6.4% 2.02× 7.77
Halmstads BK & under 3.5 12.2% 12.9% 25.4% 0.51× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 9.1% 7.9% 5.3% 1.47× 12.70
Halmstads BK & over 1.5 9.0% 7.9% 27.7% 0.28× 12.70
Halmstads BK & under 2.5 7.8% 7.9% 14.0% 0.56× 12.70
Halmstads BK & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 22.9% 0.34× 12.70
Halmstads BK & under 1.5 5.6% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 3.9% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.9% 4.8% 5.1% 0.94× 20.93
Halmstads BK & over 3.5 2.3% 4.8% 11.5% 0.42× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (1UP) 71.5% 75.7% 1.32
Halmstads BK (1UP) 29.6% 27.3% 3.67
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (2UP) 61.1% 67.5% 1.48
Halmstads BK (2UP) 14.6% 13.7% 7.31
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg to win 2nd half 48.4% 45.8% 2.19
2nd half drawn 36.0% 36.2% 2.76
Halmstads BK to win 2nd half 15.7% 19.0% 5.27
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (+0.5) 85.4% 88.5% 63.4% 1.40× 1.13
Halmstads BK (+2.5) 83.8% 82.4% 88.6% 0.93× 1.21
Halmstads BK (+1.5) 64.6% 62.9% 76.3% 0.82× 1.59
IF Elfsborg (-0.5) 61.1% 62.9% 40.7% 1.54× 1.59
Halmstads BK (+0.5) 38.9% 37.1% 59.3% 0.63× 2.69
IF Elfsborg (-1.5) 35.4% 37.1% 23.7% 1.57× 2.70
IF Elfsborg (-2.5) 16.2% 17.6% 11.5% 1.54× 5.68
Halmstads BK (-0.5) 14.6% 11.5% 36.6% 0.31× 8.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK to concede 82.4% 81.3% 76.1% 1.07× 1.23
Halmstads BK clean sheet 17.6% 18.7% 23.9% 0.78× 5.36
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK clean sheet in 1st half 47.3% 50.5% 1.98
Halmstads BK to concede in 1st half 52.7% 49.5% 2.02
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK under 6.5 corners 89.2% 85.2% 1.17
Halmstads BK under 5.5 corners 80.7% 81.4% 1.23
Halmstads BK over 2.5 corners 68.0% 67.5% 1.48
Halmstads BK under 4.5 corners 67.9% 67.5% 1.48
Halmstads BK under 3.5 corners 51.0% 53.1% 1.88
Halmstads BK over 3.5 corners 49.0% 46.9% 2.13
Halmstads BK under 2.5 corners 32.0% 32.5% 3.08
Halmstads BK over 4.5 corners 32.1% 32.5% 3.08
Halmstads BK over 5.5 corners 19.3% 18.6% 5.39
Halmstads BK over 6.5 corners 10.8% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK under 3.5 goals 99.4% 97.6% 95.2% 1.03× 1.03
Halmstads BK under 2.5 goals 96.3% 97.5% 81.7% 1.19× 1.03
Halmstads BK under 1.5 goals 83.6% 81.4% 60.8% 1.34× 1.23
Halmstads BK over 0.5 goals 51.5% 53.7% 71.2% 0.75× 1.86
Halmstads BK under 0.5 goals 48.5% 46.3% 28.8% 1.61× 2.16
Halmstads BK over 1.5 goals 16.4% 18.6% 39.2% 0.47× 5.39
Halmstads BK over 2.5 goals 3.7% 2.5% 18.3% 0.13× 40.78
Halmstads BK over 3.5 goals 0.6% 2.4% 4.8% 0.51× 40.95
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK under 1.5 in 1st half 96.5% 95.8% 1.04
Halmstads BK under 0.5 in 1st half 74.9% 68.9% 1.45
Halmstads BK over 0.5 in 1st half 25.1% 31.1% 3.21
Halmstads BK over 1.5 in 1st half 3.5% 4.2% 23.54
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (away no bet) 71.5% 68.5% 64.0% 1.07× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 28.5% 31.5% 36.0% 0.87× 3.18
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK even goals 61.8% 59.0% 53.2% 1.11× 1.69
Halmstads BK odd goals 38.2% 41.0% 46.8% 0.88× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 88.4% 88.0% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 11.6% 12.0% 8.31
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 58.2% 60.0% 1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals 41.8% 40.0% 2.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 53.9% 51.5% 1.94
IF Elfsborg to score 2+ in a row 46.1% 45.8% 2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 21.5% 19.5% 5.13
IF Elfsborg to score 3+ in a row 19.7% 16.5% 6.07
Halmstads BK to score 2+ in a row 11.1% 12.1% 8.29
Halmstads BK to score 3+ in a row 1.8% 2.5% 39.29
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg corners (+3.5) 95.7% 95.8% 1.04
IF Elfsborg corners (+2.5) 92.4% 89.6% 1.12
IF Elfsborg corners (+1.5) 87.5% 84.5% 1.18
IF Elfsborg corners (-1.5) 61.8% 61.9% 1.62
Halmstads BK corners (+3.5) 59.8% 57.2% 1.75
IF Elfsborg corners (-2.5) 50.9% 52.5% 1.91
Halmstads BK corners (+2.5) 49.1% 47.5% 2.10
IF Elfsborg corners (-3.5) 40.2% 42.8% 2.33
Halmstads BK corners (+1.5) 38.2% 38.1% 2.63
Halmstads BK corners (-1.5) 12.5% 15.5% 6.45
Halmstads BK corners (-2.5) 7.6% 10.4% 9.58
Halmstads BK corners (-3.5) 4.3% 4.3% 23.53
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 35.7% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 33.5% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.8% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.9% 72.7% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 74.4% 72.7% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.5% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 64.3% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 56.9% 57.7% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 53.6% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 46.4% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 43.1% 42.3% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 35.7% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 33.5% 32.3% 3.09
Under 7.5 corners 25.6% 27.3% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 25.1% 27.3% 3.66
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 14.2% 11.5% 6.4% 1.80× 8.73
2-0 12.9% 11.4% 9.4% 1.22× 8.73
1-1 11.3% 11.4% 13.0% 0.88× 8.74
0-0 9.1% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.47
2-1 9.3% 7.4% 5.9% 1.27× 13.47
3-0 7.5% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.47
0-1 5.6% 7.4% 9.2% 0.81× 13.47
3-1 5.4% 7.4% 2.8% 2.65× 13.47
0-2 2.2% 1.7% 5.1% 0.34× 58.51
0-3 0.5% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.52
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
1-2 3.9% 1.7% 8.1% 0.21× 58.50
1-3 0.9% 1.7% 4.8% 0.35× 58.52
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
2-2 3.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.50
2-3 0.8% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.52
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.51
3-3 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.52
4-0 3.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.51
4-1 2.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.12× 58.51
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.52
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.52
Any other score 3.3% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.50
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg leading at HT (DNB) 76.8% 77.9% 1.28
Halmstads BK leading at HT (DNB) 23.2% 22.1% 4.52
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg or draw (1X) 85.4% 86.6% 63.4% 1.37× 1.15
IF Elfsborg or Halmstads BK (12) 75.7% 75.5% 77.1% 0.98× 1.32
Halmstads BK or draw (X2) 38.9% 41.9% 59.3% 0.71× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg or draw at HT 86.9% 88.2% 1.13
Halmstads BK or draw at HT 56.8% 56.6% 1.77
IF Elfsborg or Halmstads BK at HT 56.3% 56.5% 1.77
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg or draw (1UP) 85.4% 91.5% 1.09
Halmstads BK or draw (1UP) 38.9% 42.4% 2.36
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg or draw in 2nd half 84.3% 81.0% 1.23
IF Elfsborg or Halmstads BK in 2nd half 64.0% 63.8% 1.57
Halmstads BK or draw in 2nd half 51.6% 54.2% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.3% 61.7% 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.7% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (DNB) 80.8% 80.4% 52.6% 1.53× 1.24
Halmstads BK (DNB) 19.2% 19.6% 47.4% 0.41× 5.11
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg to score first 64.2% 64.8% 1.54
Halmstads BK to score first 26.7% 28.1% 3.56
No goal scored 9.1% 7.6% 13.24
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 56.9% 54.8% 47.3% 1.16× 1.82
Both teams to score 43.1% 45.2% 52.7% 0.86× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 44.0% 41.6% 34.4% 1.21× 2.40
Both score & over 2.5 31.7% 34.3% 39.9% 0.86× 2.92
Not both score & over 2.5 12.9% 12.3% 13.2% 0.93× 8.12
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.12
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 91.5% 89.1% 84.2% 1.06× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 8.5% 10.9% 15.8% 0.69× 9.17
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 77.6% 75.7% 1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half 22.4% 24.4% 4.11
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 67.2% 62.5% 1.60
Both score 2nd half only 19.4% 15.9% 6.30
Both score 1st half only 10.4% 10.5% 9.52
Both score in both halves 2.9% 4.9% 20.51
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 86.7% 85.8% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 13.3% 14.3% 7.02
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 50.7% 53.3% 1.88
A goal in each half 49.3% 46.7% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.7% 47.4% 49.1% 0.97× 2.11
0-1 goals 28.9% 26.5% 20.4% 1.30× 3.78
4-6 goals 22.1% 22.8% 26.2% 0.87× 4.38
7+ goals 1.3% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 55.12
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK to score exactly 0 48.5% 43.0% 28.8% 1.49× 2.33
Halmstads BK to score exactly 1 35.1% 36.0% 32.3% 1.11× 2.78
Halmstads BK to score exactly 2 12.7% 12.8% 21.1% 0.61× 7.81
Halmstads BK to score 3+ 3.7% 4.5% 18.3% 0.25× 22.05
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg to score exactly 1 30.6% 32.6% 32.8% 0.99× 3.06
IF Elfsborg to score exactly 2 26.6% 26.5% 22.1% 1.20× 3.77
IF Elfsborg to score 3+ 25.3% 26.5% 21.6% 1.23× 3.77
IF Elfsborg to score exactly 0 17.6% 18.9% 23.9% 0.79× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.7% 43.5% 2.30
IF Elfsborg leading at HT 43.2% 43.4% 2.30
Halmstads BK leading at HT 13.1% 11.8% 8.45
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg -1: 2 38.9% 37.4% 2.68
IF Elfsborg -1: 1 35.4% 37.3% 2.68
IF Elfsborg -1: X 25.7% 26.6% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK (0:1) 38.9% 37.3% 59.3% 0.63× 2.68
IF Elfsborg (0:1) 35.4% 37.2% 23.7% 1.57× 2.69
Draw (0:1) 25.7% 27.0% 17.3% 1.56× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK (0:2) 64.6% 67.3% 76.3% 0.88× 1.49
Draw (0:2) 19.2% 15.3% 12.5% 1.23× 6.53
IF Elfsborg (0:2) 16.2% 15.3% 11.5% 1.34× 6.54
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK (0:3) 83.8% 85.2% 88.6% 0.96× 1.17
Draw (0:3) 10.1% 10.0% 6.9% 1.45× 10.02
IF Elfsborg (0:3) 6.0% 5.8% 4.8% 1.20× 17.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK (0:4) 94.0% 94.7% 95.2% 0.99× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 4.2% 1.2% 3.8% 0.32× 83.12
IF Elfsborg (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 1.3% 0.94× 83.39
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (1:0) 85.4% 86.3% 63.4% 1.36× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 10.4% 12.8% 20.4% 0.63× 7.81
Halmstads BK (1:0) 4.2% 3.2% 16.5% 0.19× 31.42
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg (2:0) 95.8% 96.9% 83.5% 1.16× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 3.3% 2.3% 10.4% 0.22× 44.30
Halmstads BK (2:0) 0.9% 2.2% 6.4% 0.35× 44.46
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.4% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 27.5% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 27.0% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg to concede 51.5% 53.1% 71.2% 0.75× 1.88
IF Elfsborg clean sheet 48.5% 46.9% 28.8% 1.63× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg clean sheet in 1st half 74.9% 68.6% 1.46
IF Elfsborg to concede in 1st half 25.1% 31.4% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg over 2.5 corners 91.7% 89.3% 1.12
IF Elfsborg over 3.5 corners 82.9% 80.9% 1.24
IF Elfsborg over 4.5 corners 71.1% 71.9% 1.39
IF Elfsborg over 5.5 corners 57.9% 57.5% 1.74
IF Elfsborg under 6.5 corners 55.2% 57.5% 1.74
IF Elfsborg over 6.5 corners 44.9% 42.5% 2.35
IF Elfsborg under 5.5 corners 42.1% 42.5% 2.35
IF Elfsborg under 4.5 corners 28.9% 28.1% 3.56
IF Elfsborg under 3.5 corners 17.1% 19.1% 5.25
IF Elfsborg under 2.5 corners 8.3% 10.7% 9.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg under 3.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
IF Elfsborg over 0.5 goals 82.4% 82.1% 76.1% 1.08× 1.22
IF Elfsborg under 2.5 goals 74.7% 74.2% 78.4% 0.95× 1.35
IF Elfsborg over 1.5 goals 51.9% 53.2% 43.5% 1.22× 1.88
IF Elfsborg under 1.5 goals 48.1% 46.8% 56.5% 0.83× 2.14
IF Elfsborg over 2.5 goals 25.3% 25.8% 21.6% 1.19× 3.88
IF Elfsborg under 0.5 goals 17.6% 17.9% 23.9% 0.75× 5.59
IF Elfsborg over 3.5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 9.4% 0.82× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg under 1.5 in 1st half 82.7% 84.5% 1.18
IF Elfsborg under 0.5 in 1st half 47.3% 50.6% 1.98
IF Elfsborg over 0.5 in 1st half 52.7% 49.4% 2.03
IF Elfsborg over 1.5 in 1st half 17.3% 15.5% 6.45
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 62.6% 60.1% 38.5% 1.56× 1.66
Halmstads BK (home no bet) 37.4% 39.9% 61.5% 0.65× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg even goals 51.5% 50.6% 53.9% 0.94× 1.98
IF Elfsborg odd goals 48.5% 49.4% 46.1% 1.07× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 35.5% 38.2% 2.62
HT 1-0 26.4% 29.0% 3.45
HT 0-1 10.2% 11.0% 9.13
HT 2-0 9.9% 7.1% 14.13
HT 1-1 7.8% 7.1% 14.17
Any other HT score 4.3% 2.3% 43.74
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.3% 43.85
HT 0-2 1.5% 2.3% 43.96
HT 1-2 1.1% 2.3% 43.99
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 44.04
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg at HT / IF Elfsborg at FT 38.0% 41.0% 2.44
Draw at HT / IF Elfsborg at FT 20.8% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.4% 16.8% 5.95
Halmstads BK at HT / Halmstads BK at FT 7.1% 6.0% 16.59
Draw at HT / Halmstads BK at FT 6.6% 6.0% 16.61
IF Elfsborg at HT / Draw at FT 4.2% 3.5% 28.82
Halmstads BK at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.5% 28.84
Halmstads BK at HT / IF Elfsborg at FT 2.3% 3.5% 28.90
IF Elfsborg at HT / Halmstads BK at FT 0.9% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg to score last 64.3% 62.3% 1.61
Halmstads BK to score last 26.6% 26.9% 3.72
No goal scored 9.1% 7.6% 13.24
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 90.9% 92.6% 1.08
IF Elfsborg to lead by 1 at any time 71.5% 74.1% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.3% 44.0% 2.27
IF Elfsborg to lead by 2 at any time 40.4% 39.1% 2.56
Halmstads BK to lead by 1 at any time 29.6% 25.4% 3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 19.5% 15.0% 6.66
IF Elfsborg to lead by 3 at any time 18.2% 15.0% 6.68
Halmstads BK to lead by 2 at any time 7.0% 6.6% 15.25
Halmstads BK to lead by 3 at any time 1.3% 1.5% 65.31
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg most corners 71.9% 70.7% 1.42
Halmstads BK most corners 19.3% 19.2% 5.20
Corners level 8.7% 8.5% 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.5% 83.5% 78.4% 1.07× 1.20
2-6 goals 69.8% 69.0% 75.1% 0.92× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.4% 69.0% 64.1% 1.08× 1.45
2-5 goals 67.1% 69.0% 71.8% 0.96× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.7% 63.4% 63.4% 1.00× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.7% 48.7% 49.1% 0.99× 2.06
1-2 goals 46.2% 48.7% 42.0% 1.16× 2.06
3-6 goals 43.4% 43.6% 48.3% 0.90× 2.30
3-5 goals 40.7% 43.6% 45.0% 0.97× 2.30
3-4 goals 34.3% 35.4% 36.6% 0.97× 2.83
4-6 goals 22.1% 24.5% 26.2% 0.93× 4.09
4-5 goals 19.5% 18.6% 22.9% 0.81× 5.37
5-6 goals 9.1% 8.8% 12.0% 0.73× 11.42
7+ goals 1.3% 2.5% 4.8% 0.52× 39.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg never behind 61.3% 67.6% 1.48
Halmstads BK never behind 19.4% 18.9% 5.29
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.4% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.6% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.5% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 43.5% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.3% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.7% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.0% 95.5% 91.9% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 90.9% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 89.6% 87.7% 83.5% 1.05× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 76.6% 77.4% 69.2% 1.12× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 71.1% 72.5% 79.6% 0.91× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 55.3% 58.8% 47.1% 1.25× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 44.7% 41.2% 52.9% 0.78× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 28.9% 27.5% 20.4% 1.35× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 23.4% 22.6% 30.8% 0.74× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 10.4% 12.3% 16.5% 0.75× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 9.1% 7.7% 5.3% 1.45× 12.93
Over 5.5 goals 4.0% 4.5% 8.1% 0.55× 22.22
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.7% 97.3% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.8% 97.2% 91.1% 1.07× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 88.1% 86.7% 80.7% 1.07× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 70.2% 72.6% 60.5% 1.20× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 60.7% 62.1% 72.2% 0.86× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 39.3% 37.9% 27.8% 1.37× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 29.8% 27.4% 39.5% 0.69× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 11.9% 13.3% 19.3% 0.69× 7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.2% 2.8% 8.9% 0.31× 36.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.3% 2.7% 5.0% 0.55× 36.38
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 91.3% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 72.1% 70.9% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 64.5% 63.7% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 35.5% 36.3% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 27.9% 29.1% 3.44
Over 2.5 in 1st half 8.7% 7.3% 13.70
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 82.7% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 75.8% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 58.1% 54.7% 1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 41.9% 45.3% 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 24.2% 20.1% 4.97
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 17.3% 17.1% 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK not to score in both halves 91.1% 90.0% 1.11
IF Elfsborg not to score in both halves 66.9% 70.2% 1.43
IF Elfsborg to score in both halves 33.1% 29.8% 3.35
Halmstads BK to score in both halves 8.9% 10.0% 9.97
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 43.1% 46.6% 52.7% 0.88× 2.15
Only IF Elfsborg scores 39.4% 39.9% 23.7% 1.69× 2.51
Neither team scores 9.1% 7.2% 5.3% 1.35× 13.90
Only Halmstads BK scores 8.5% 7.2% 18.8% 0.38× 13.90
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.4% 24.9% 27.0% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.2% 22.6% 22.4% 1.01× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 19.8% 17.4% 15.3% 1.14× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.1% 12.1% 14.5% 0.83× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 9.1% 7.6% 5.3% 1.43× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 6.4% 7.6% 8.7% 0.88× 13.10
6 or more goals 4.0% 4.4% 8.1% 0.54× 22.68
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 41.9% 43.9% 2.28
1 goal in 2nd half 33.9% 33.7% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 24.2% 23.1% 4.32
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK not to win both halves 97.9% 97.2% 1.03
IF Elfsborg not to win both halves 79.0% 75.5% 1.32
IF Elfsborg to win both halves 21.0% 24.5% 4.08
Halmstads BK to win both halves 2.1% 2.8% 36.19
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK to win neither half 73.3% 73.1% 1.37
IF Elfsborg to win either half 70.5% 72.9% 1.37
IF Elfsborg to win neither half 29.5% 27.1% 3.69
Halmstads BK to win either half 26.7% 26.9% 3.72
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Halmstads BK not to win to nil 91.5% 92.0% 81.2% 1.13× 1.09
IF Elfsborg not to win to nil 60.6% 66.7% 76.3% 0.87× 1.50
IF Elfsborg to win to nil 39.4% 33.3% 23.7% 1.41× 3.00
Halmstads BK to win to nil 8.5% 8.0% 18.8% 0.42× 12.53
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IF Elfsborg by 1 25.7% 27.8% 17.3% 1.61× 3.60
Draw 24.3% 24.2% 22.9% 1.05× 4.14
IF Elfsborg by 2 19.2% 17.0% 12.5% 1.36× 5.90
IF Elfsborg by 3+ 16.2% 16.9% 11.5% 1.48× 5.90
Halmstads BK by 1 10.4% 11.8% 20.4% 0.58× 8.47
Halmstads BK by 2 3.3% 2.7% 10.4% 0.26× 37.03
Halmstads BK by 3+ 0.9% 2.7% 6.4% 0.42× 37.11
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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