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IFK Göteborg v Djurgården — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 28 October 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
IFK Göteborg win
26.8%
model 25.7%
Draw
26.8%
model 27.6%
Djurgården win
46.5%
model 46.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 0-1 11.4%
  3. 1-2 9.1%
  4. 0-0 8.9%
  5. 0-2 8.9%

Goals

Over 2.545.6% Under 2.554.4%
BTTS yes50.2% BTTS no49.8%
IFK Göteborg 1+64.3% IFK Göteborg 2+27.5%
Djurgården 1+77.1% Djurgården 2+43.3%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.47. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
18/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
81%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Djurgården carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1496.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • The component models disagree more than usual (agreement 0.81).
  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Djurgården have an estimated 46.5% win probability, against 26.8% for the draw and 26.8% for IFK Göteborg. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.03 for IFK Göteborg and 1.47 for Djurgården.

Why IFK Göteborg

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.8%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Djurgården can win

Djurgården carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1496. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for IFK Göteborg, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Djurgården, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

IFK Göteborg: 53% possession, 19.6 shots a match, 11.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Djurgården: 48% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 5.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Djurgården are the model's most likely outcome at 46.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 18/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 0.90–2.18 0-2 11% 60% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to win 66.0% 65.0% 36.6% 1.77× 1.54
Draw 20.2% 24.4% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
IFK Göteborg to win 13.9% 13.3% 40.7% 0.33× 7.50
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården & not both score 35.4% 33.2% 18.8% 1.76× 3.02
Djurgården & both teams score 30.6% 29.7% 18.1% 1.64× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 15.1% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.59
IFK Göteborg & both teams score 7.6% 8.4% 17.3% 0.48× 11.93
IFK Göteborg & not both score 6.2% 8.4% 23.7% 0.35× 11.93
Draw & not both score 5.1% 8.4% 5.3% 1.57× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården & over 1.5 56.5% 54.9% 27.7% 1.98× 1.82
Djurgården & over 2.5 45.6% 45.2% 22.9% 1.97× 2.21
Djurgården & under 3.5 38.1% 34.9% 25.4% 1.37× 2.86
Djurgården & over 3.5 27.9% 26.0% 11.5% 2.27× 3.84
Djurgården & under 2.5 20.4% 21.6% 14.0% 1.55× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 15.1% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 14.6% 12.9% 18.1% 0.71× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 14.6% 12.9% 18.1% 0.71× 7.77
IFK Göteborg & over 1.5 10.2% 12.9% 34.6% 0.37× 7.77
IFK Göteborg & under 3.5 10.2% 12.9% 26.2% 0.49× 7.77
Djurgården & under 1.5 9.5% 7.9% 9.2% 0.86× 12.70
IFK Göteborg & over 2.5 8.4% 7.9% 25.4% 0.31× 12.70
IFK Göteborg & under 2.5 5.5% 7.9% 15.5% 0.51× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 5.1% 7.9% 5.3% 1.47× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 5.6% 7.9% 5.1% 1.55× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 5.6% 7.9% 5.1% 1.55× 12.70
IFK Göteborg & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 6.4% 0.75× 20.93
IFK Göteborg & over 3.5 3.7% 4.8% 14.8% 0.32× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (1UP) 77.2% 78.9% 1.27
IFK Göteborg (1UP) 31.9% 32.7% 3.06
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (2UP) 66.0% 68.5% 1.46
IFK Göteborg (2UP) 13.9% 13.6% 7.36
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to win 2nd half 56.2% 59.3% 1.69
2nd half drawn 29.4% 26.4% 3.79
IFK Göteborg to win 2nd half 14.5% 12.6% 7.96
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (+2.5) 98.9% 96.3% 88.6% 1.09× 1.04
Djurgården (+1.5) 95.4% 96.3% 76.3% 1.26× 1.04
Djurgården (+0.5) 86.1% 88.5% 59.3% 1.49× 1.13
Djurgården (-0.5) 66.0% 68.7% 36.6% 1.87× 1.46
IFK Göteborg (+0.5) 34.0% 31.3% 63.4% 0.49× 3.19
IFK Göteborg (-0.5) 13.9% 11.5% 40.7% 0.28× 8.69
IFK Göteborg (-1.5) 4.6% 3.7% 23.7% 0.16× 26.76
IFK Göteborg (-2.5) 1.1% 3.7% 11.5% 0.32× 26.98
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to concede 59.5% 62.8% 76.1% 0.83× 1.59
Djurgården clean sheet 40.5% 37.2% 23.9% 1.56× 2.69
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården clean sheet in 1st half 67.8% 70.5% 1.42
Djurgården to concede in 1st half 32.2% 29.5% 3.39
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården over 2.5 corners 85.0% 85.2% 1.17
Djurgården over 3.5 corners 71.8% 71.5% 1.40
Djurgården under 6.5 corners 70.8% 71.5% 1.40
Djurgården under 5.5 corners 58.1% 57.1% 1.75
Djurgården over 4.5 corners 56.7% 57.1% 1.75
Djurgården under 4.5 corners 43.3% 42.9% 2.33
Djurgården over 5.5 corners 41.9% 42.9% 2.33
Djurgården over 6.5 corners 29.2% 28.5% 3.51
Djurgården under 3.5 corners 28.2% 28.5% 3.52
Djurgården under 2.5 corners 15.0% 14.8% 6.74
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården over 0.5 goals 88.7% 87.9% 71.2% 1.23× 1.14
Djurgården under 3.5 goals 82.4% 81.4% 95.2% 0.86× 1.23
Djurgården over 1.5 goals 64.0% 63.0% 39.2% 1.61× 1.59
Djurgården under 2.5 goals 62.8% 62.9% 81.7% 0.77× 1.59
Djurgården over 2.5 goals 37.2% 37.1% 18.3% 2.02× 2.70
Djurgården under 1.5 goals 36.0% 37.0% 60.8% 0.61× 2.70
Djurgården over 3.5 goals 17.6% 18.6% 4.8% 3.84× 5.39
Djurgården under 0.5 goals 11.3% 12.1% 28.8% 0.42× 8.27
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården under 1.5 in 1st half 78.3% 76.3% 1.31
Djurgården over 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 62.5% 1.60
Djurgården under 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 37.5% 2.67
Djurgården over 1.5 in 1st half 21.7% 23.7% 4.22
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 59.2% 57.6% 36.0% 1.60× 1.74
IFK Göteborg (away no bet) 40.8% 42.4% 64.0% 0.66× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården even goals 50.6% 52.8% 53.2% 0.99× 1.90
Djurgården odd goals 49.4% 47.2% 46.8% 1.01× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 80.5% 82.9% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 19.5% 17.1% 5.86
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 71.0% 67.0% 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 29.0% 33.0% 3.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.6% 61.9% 1.61
Djurgården to score 2+ in a row 56.9% 55.2% 1.81
Either team to score 3+ in a row 30.7% 28.7% 3.48
Djurgården to score 3+ in a row 28.2% 25.2% 3.97
IFK Göteborg to score 2+ in a row 14.7% 12.2% 8.22
IFK Göteborg to score 3+ in a row 2.8% 2.6% 38.71
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg corners (+3.5) 85.6% 84.5% 1.18
IFK Göteborg corners (+2.5) 79.1% 74.9% 1.34
Djurgården corners (+3.5) 77.1% 74.9% 1.34
IFK Göteborg corners (+1.5) 70.9% 70.7% 1.41
Djurgården corners (+2.5) 68.7% 65.8% 1.52
Djurgården corners (+1.5) 59.1% 57.2% 1.75
IFK Göteborg corners (-1.5) 40.9% 42.8% 2.33
IFK Göteborg corners (-2.5) 31.3% 34.2% 2.92
Djurgården corners (-1.5) 29.1% 29.3% 3.41
IFK Göteborg corners (-3.5) 22.9% 25.1% 3.98
Djurgården corners (-2.5) 20.9% 25.1% 3.98
Djurgården corners (-3.5) 14.4% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 43.3% 38.6% 2.59
9-11 corners 29.8% 31.2% 3.20
0-8 corners 26.9% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 81.7% 80.8% 1.24
Over 8.5 corners 73.1% 72.7% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 65.9% 67.7% 1.48
Over 9.5 corners 63.5% 63.4% 1.58
Under 11.5 corners 56.7% 57.7% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 53.3% 53.3% 1.88
Under 10.5 corners 46.7% 46.7% 2.14
Over 11.5 corners 43.3% 42.3% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 36.5% 36.6% 2.73
Over 12.5 corners 34.1% 32.3% 3.09
Under 8.5 corners 26.9% 27.3% 3.66
Under 7.5 corners 18.3% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-2 10.9% 11.4% 5.1% 2.25× 8.74
0-1 9.5% 7.4% 9.2% 0.81× 13.47
1-1 9.5% 7.4% 13.0% 0.57× 13.47
1-2 9.8% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.47
0-3 7.9% 7.4% 3.8% 1.95× 13.47
1-3 7.1% 7.4% 4.8% 1.54× 13.47
Any other score 7.2% 7.4% 4.1% 1.82× 13.47
0-0 5.1% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.47
0-4 4.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.50
1-0 3.6% 1.7% 6.4% 0.27× 58.50
1-4 3.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.50
2-0 1.9% 1.7% 9.4% 0.18× 58.51
2-1 4.1% 1.7% 5.9% 0.29× 58.50
2-2 4.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.50
2-3 3.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.51
2-4 1.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.51
3-0 0.6% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.52
3-1 1.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.52
3-2 1.3% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.52
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.52
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.52
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.52
4-1 0.3% 1.7% 1.5% 1.12× 58.52
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.52
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.52
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården leading at HT (DNB) 74.4% 71.9% 1.39
IFK Göteborg leading at HT (DNB) 25.6% 28.1% 3.56
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw (X2) 86.1% 86.7% 59.3% 1.46× 1.15
IFK Göteborg or Djurgården (12) 79.8% 75.6% 77.1% 0.98× 1.32
IFK Göteborg or draw (1X) 34.0% 35.0% 63.4% 0.55× 2.85
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw at HT 84.4% 84.5% 1.18
IFK Göteborg or Djurgården at HT 61.0% 62.2% 1.61
IFK Göteborg or draw at HT 54.6% 47.8% 2.09
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw (1UP) 86.1% 91.6% 1.09
IFK Göteborg or draw (1UP) 34.0% 39.1% 2.56
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw in 2nd half 85.5% 87.4% 1.14
IFK Göteborg or Djurgården in 2nd half 70.6% 73.6% 1.36
IFK Göteborg or draw in 2nd half 43.8% 40.7% 2.46
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 56.3% 58.0% 1.72
Neither half drawn 43.7% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (DNB) 82.6% 80.5% 47.4% 1.70× 1.24
IFK Göteborg (DNB) 17.4% 19.5% 52.6% 0.37× 5.13
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to score first 67.1% 69.5% 1.44
IFK Göteborg to score first 27.8% 28.3% 3.54
No goal scored 5.1% 7.4% 13.49
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.3% 51.5% 52.7% 0.98× 1.94
Not both teams to score 46.7% 48.5% 47.3% 1.03× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.8% 41.6% 39.9% 1.04× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 31.0% 34.3% 34.4% 1.00× 2.92
Not both score & over 2.5 15.8% 21.7% 13.2% 1.64× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 9.5% 8.4% 13.0% 0.65× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.3% 85.6% 84.2% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.7% 14.4% 15.8% 0.91× 6.97
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.5% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.5% 25.9% 3.87
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.1% 59.6% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 24.0% 21.0% 4.77
Both score 1st half only 13.3% 10.6% 9.47
Both score in both halves 5.5% 6.7% 14.89
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.2% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.8% 17.2% 5.81
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 60.3% 58.5% 1.71
A half without a goal 39.7% 41.5% 2.41
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.7% 42.1% 49.1% 0.86× 2.38
4-6 goals 33.4% 30.8% 26.2% 1.17× 3.25
0-1 goals 18.2% 20.2% 20.4% 0.99× 4.95
7+ goals 3.7% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 54.86
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to score 3+ 37.2% 36.0% 18.3% 1.96× 2.78
Djurgården to score exactly 2 26.9% 27.4% 21.1% 1.30× 3.65
Djurgården to score exactly 1 24.7% 22.4% 32.3% 0.69× 4.46
Djurgården to score exactly 0 11.3% 12.8% 28.8% 0.45× 7.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 32.8% 1.08× 2.81
IFK Göteborg to score exactly 0 40.5% 34.9% 23.9% 1.46× 2.87
IFK Göteborg to score exactly 2 16.5% 18.9% 22.1% 0.85× 5.30
IFK Göteborg to score 3+ 6.4% 10.3% 21.6% 0.48× 9.73
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården leading at HT 45.4% 52.2% 1.92
Draw at HT 39.0% 37.8% 2.65
IFK Göteborg leading at HT 15.6% 15.5% 6.44
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården -1: 2 42.8% 42.7% 2.34
Djurgården -1: 1 34.0% 30.1% 3.32
Djurgården -1: X 23.1% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:1) 86.1% 89.0% 59.3% 1.50× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 9.3% 9.3% 17.3% 0.54× 10.80
IFK Göteborg (0:1) 4.6% 5.9% 23.7% 0.25× 17.07
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:2) 95.4% 94.0% 76.3% 1.23× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 3.4% 3.8% 12.5% 0.30× 26.53
IFK Göteborg (0:2) 1.1% 3.8% 11.5% 0.33× 26.67
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:3) 98.9% 96.6% 88.6% 1.09× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.9% 2.4% 6.9% 0.35× 42.17
IFK Göteborg (0:3) 0.2% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:4) 99.8% 98.1% 95.2% 1.03× 1.02
IFK Göteborg (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.94× 83.61
Draw (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 3.8% 0.31× 83.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (1:0) 42.8% 42.9% 16.5% 2.59× 2.33
IFK Göteborg (1:0) 34.0% 30.5% 63.4% 0.48× 3.28
Draw (1:0) 23.1% 21.8% 20.4% 1.07× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg (2:0) 57.2% 63.1% 83.5% 0.76× 1.59
Djurgården (2:0) 22.8% 19.2% 6.4% 3.01× 5.22
Draw (2:0) 20.0% 18.9% 10.4% 1.81× 5.29
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.2% 50.2% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 26.1% 26.5% 3.78
Halves equal 23.7% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to concede 88.7% 86.2% 71.2% 1.21× 1.16
IFK Göteborg clean sheet 11.3% 13.8% 28.8% 0.48× 7.24
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg to concede in 1st half 58.2% 62.5% 1.60
IFK Göteborg clean sheet in 1st half 41.8% 37.5% 2.67
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg over 2.5 corners 89.1% 86.3% 1.16
IFK Göteborg over 3.5 corners 78.4% 76.6% 1.31
IFK Göteborg over 4.5 corners 65.1% 66.7% 1.50
IFK Göteborg under 6.5 corners 62.3% 62.3% 1.61
IFK Göteborg over 5.5 corners 51.0% 52.8% 1.90
IFK Göteborg under 5.5 corners 49.0% 47.2% 2.12
IFK Göteborg over 6.5 corners 37.7% 37.7% 2.65
IFK Göteborg under 4.5 corners 34.9% 33.3% 3.00
IFK Göteborg under 3.5 corners 21.6% 23.4% 4.27
IFK Göteborg under 2.5 corners 10.9% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg under 3.5 goals 98.6% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
IFK Göteborg under 2.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 78.4% 1.18× 1.08
IFK Göteborg under 1.5 goals 77.1% 77.7% 56.5% 1.38× 1.29
IFK Göteborg over 0.5 goals 59.5% 58.8% 76.1% 0.77× 1.70
IFK Göteborg under 0.5 goals 40.5% 41.2% 23.9% 1.72× 2.43
IFK Göteborg over 1.5 goals 22.9% 22.3% 43.5% 0.51× 4.49
IFK Göteborg over 2.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 21.6% 0.36× 12.93
IFK Göteborg over 3.5 goals 1.4% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.52
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 95.5% 1.05
IFK Göteborg under 0.5 in 1st half 67.8% 69.0% 1.45
IFK Göteborg over 0.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.0% 3.22
IFK Göteborg over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 4.5% 22.11
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (home no bet) 76.6% 78.6% 61.5% 1.28× 1.27
Draw (home no bet) 23.4% 21.4% 38.5% 0.56× 4.67
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg even goals 58.2% 55.5% 53.9% 1.03× 1.80
IFK Göteborg odd goals 41.8% 44.5% 46.1% 0.97× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.4% 29.1% 3.44
HT 0-1 24.6% 24.2% 4.13
HT 1-0 10.9% 11.0% 9.12
HT 0-2 10.8% 11.0% 9.12
HT 1-1 9.7% 7.1% 14.14
Any other HT score 6.5% 7.1% 14.19
HT 1-2 4.2% 2.3% 43.75
HT 2-0 2.1% 2.3% 43.91
HT 2-1 1.9% 2.3% 43.93
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 44.01
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården at HT / Djurgården at FT 40.6% 43.9% 2.28
Draw at HT / Djurgården at FT 21.6% 21.7% 4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.0% 12.7% 7.90
IFK Göteborg at HT / IFK Göteborg at FT 7.5% 6.0% 16.58
Draw at HT / IFK Göteborg at FT 5.4% 6.0% 16.64
IFK Göteborg at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% 28.82
IFK Göteborg at HT / Djurgården at FT 3.8% 3.5% 28.84
Djurgården at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% 28.84
Djurgården at HT / IFK Göteborg at FT 1.0% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to score last 67.2% 70.1% 1.43
IFK Göteborg to score last 27.7% 27.0% 3.70
No goal scored 5.1% 7.4% 13.49
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.9% 92.7% 1.08
Djurgården to lead by 1 at any time 77.2% 78.3% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 57.6% 55.2% 1.81
Djurgården to lead by 2 at any time 49.4% 44.1% 2.27
IFK Göteborg to lead by 1 at any time 31.9% 29.3% 3.41
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.8% 25.3% 3.95
Djurgården to lead by 3 at any time 25.9% 25.2% 3.96
IFK Göteborg to lead by 2 at any time 8.5% 6.6% 15.18
IFK Göteborg to lead by 3 at any time 1.9% 1.5% 64.72
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg most corners 51.1% 51.9% 1.93
Djurgården most corners 38.6% 39.4% 2.54
Corners level 10.3% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 85.7% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
2-6 goals 78.1% 78.6% 75.1% 1.05× 1.27
1-4 goals 75.0% 78.6% 78.4% 1.00× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.6% 72.4% 71.8% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.9% 63.4% 63.4% 1.00× 1.58
1-3 goals 57.8% 59.2% 64.1% 0.92× 1.69
3-6 goals 55.8% 59.2% 48.3% 1.22× 1.69
3-5 goals 50.3% 53.2% 45.0% 1.18× 1.88
2-3 goals 44.7% 43.6% 49.1% 0.89× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.7% 39.2% 36.6% 1.07× 2.55
1-2 goals 35.4% 39.2% 42.0% 0.93× 2.55
4-6 goals 33.4% 35.4% 26.2% 1.35× 2.83
4-5 goals 27.9% 30.2% 22.9% 1.32× 3.31
5-6 goals 16.1% 18.6% 12.0% 1.56× 5.37
7+ goals 3.7% 2.5% 4.8% 0.53× 39.34
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården never behind 63.0% 67.8% 1.47
IFK Göteborg never behind 17.7% 18.7% 5.36
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.9% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.1% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.2% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.8% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.9% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 90.8% 92.3% 91.9% 1.00× 1.08
Over 1.5 goals 81.8% 82.4% 79.6% 1.03× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 80.1% 82.4% 83.5% 0.99× 1.21
Under 3.5 goals 62.9% 61.7% 69.2% 0.89× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 59.5% 58.8% 52.9% 1.11× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 40.5% 41.2% 47.1% 0.87× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 37.1% 38.3% 30.8% 1.24× 2.61
Over 4.5 goals 19.9% 17.6% 16.5% 1.07× 5.67
Under 1.5 goals 18.2% 17.6% 20.4% 0.87× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 9.2% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 5.1% 7.7% 5.3% 1.44× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.0% 97.2% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 89.7% 86.8% 91.1% 0.95× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 76.6% 75.9% 72.2% 1.05× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 76.0% 75.9% 80.7% 0.94× 1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 52.2% 51.8% 60.5% 0.86× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 47.8% 48.2% 39.5% 1.22× 2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 24.0% 24.1% 19.3% 1.25× 4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 23.4% 24.1% 27.8% 0.87× 4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 10.3% 13.2% 8.9% 1.49× 7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 4.0% 2.8% 5.0% 0.55× 36.30
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.6% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.6% 70.9% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 64.0% 63.7% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 36.0% 36.3% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.4% 29.1% 3.43
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.4% 11.0% 9.11
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.7% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 72.5% 77.7% 1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 54.6% 53.5% 1.87
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 45.4% 46.5% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 27.5% 22.3% 4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.3% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg not to score in both halves 87.0% 86.0% 1.16
Djurgården not to score in both halves 57.6% 57.7% 1.73
Djurgården to score in both halves 42.4% 42.3% 2.37
IFK Göteborg to score in both halves 13.0% 14.0% 7.14
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.3% 53.9% 52.7% 1.02× 1.85
Only Djurgården scores 35.4% 39.8% 18.8% 2.11× 2.51
Only IFK Göteborg scores 6.2% 7.2% 23.7% 0.30× 13.92
Neither team scores 5.1% 7.2% 5.3% 1.34× 13.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 22.3% 22.6% 27.0% 0.84× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 22.4% 1.01× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.3% 17.4% 14.5% 1.20× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 13.1% 12.1% 15.3% 0.79× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 10.6% 12.1% 8.7% 1.39× 8.29
6 or more goals 9.2% 7.6% 8.1% 0.94× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 5.1% 7.6% 5.3% 1.43× 13.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 54.6% 51.8% 1.93
1 goal in 2nd half 29.1% 29.9% 3.35
No goals in 2nd half 16.3% 17.0% 5.88
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg not to win both halves 97.7% 97.2% 1.03
Djurgården not to win both halves 74.4% 73.0% 1.37
Djurgården to win both halves 25.6% 27.0% 3.71
IFK Göteborg to win both halves 2.3% 2.8% 36.09
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to win either half 75.9% 79.5% 1.26
IFK Göteborg to win neither half 72.2% 73.0% 1.37
IFK Göteborg to win either half 27.8% 27.0% 3.70
Djurgården to win neither half 24.1% 20.5% 4.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
IFK Göteborg not to win to nil 93.8% 92.1% 76.3% 1.21× 1.09
Djurgården not to win to nil 64.6% 66.8% 81.2% 0.82× 1.50
Djurgården to win to nil 35.4% 33.2% 18.8% 1.76× 3.01
IFK Göteborg to win to nil 6.2% 7.9% 23.7% 0.34× 12.58
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården by 1 23.1% 24.2% 20.4% 1.19× 4.14
Djurgården by 3+ 22.8% 24.2% 6.4% 3.80× 4.14
Djurgården by 2 20.0% 24.1% 10.4% 2.31× 4.14
Draw 20.2% 24.1% 22.9% 1.05× 4.14
IFK Göteborg by 1 9.3% 7.3% 17.3% 0.42× 13.79
IFK Göteborg by 2 3.4% 2.7% 12.5% 0.22× 37.03
IFK Göteborg by 3+ 1.1% 2.7% 11.5% 0.24× 37.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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