Independiente v San Lorenzo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Independiente

18:15

San Lorenzo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 182h before kick-off

Independiente win

47.1%

model 44.5%

Draw

30.1%

model 31.2%

San Lorenzo win

22.8%

model 24.3%

473023

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 16.1%
0-0 14.5%
1-1 13.4%
0-1 10.7%
2-0 9.7%

Goals

Over 2.5	31.2%	Under 2.5	68.8%
BTTS yes	38.0%	BTTS no	62.0%
Independiente 1+	69.1%	Independiente 2+	32.8%
San Lorenzo 1+	54.5%	San Lorenzo 2+	18.7%

Expected goals 1.17 – 0.79. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

97%

★ Best pick

1-3 goals

Multi goal · usually 72%

73.5% fair odds 1.36

moderate signal · 2591 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Independiente carry the stronger rating, 1532 Elo against 1477.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Independiente have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 30.1% for the draw and 22.8% for San Lorenzo. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.17 for Independiente and 0.79 for San Lorenzo.

Why Independiente

Independiente carry the stronger rating, 1532 Elo against 1477.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.1%. A combined 1.96 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why San Lorenzo can win

Nothing in the data singles out San Lorenzo.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Independiente, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for San Lorenzo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Independiente: 56% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. San Lorenzo: 56% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Independiente are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 16.1%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	453124	1.17–0.79	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	443422	1.05–0.66	1-0 19%	24%	32%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to win	43.9%	43.0%	41.7%	1.03×	2.32
Draw	33.7%	30.4%	30.6%	0.99×	3.29
San Lorenzo to win	22.3%	24.4%	27.8%	0.88×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente & not both score	33.3%	29.7%	27.8%	1.07×	3.36
Draw & not both score	18.5%	17.9%	14.8%	1.21×	5.58
San Lorenzo & not both score	16.5%	17.9%	17.2%	1.04×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	15.2%	17.9%	15.9%	1.12×	5.58
Independiente & both teams score	10.7%	13.2%	14.1%	0.94×	7.55
San Lorenzo & both teams score	5.8%	8.4%	10.7%	0.78×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente & under 3.5	38.7%	34.9%	34.9%	1.00×	2.86
Draw & under 2.5	31.4%	30.9%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Draw & under 3.5	31.4%	30.9%	28.1%	1.10×	3.24
Independiente & under 2.5	28.6%	26.0%	23.6%	1.10×	3.84
Independiente & over 1.5	25.3%	26.0%	27.6%	0.94×	3.84
San Lorenzo & under 3.5	20.5%	21.6%	23.6%	0.92×	4.62
Independiente & under 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	14.2%	1.27×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
San Lorenzo & under 2.5	15.5%	18.0%	14.7%	1.23×	5.56
Independiente & over 2.5	15.3%	18.0%	18.2%	0.99×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.2%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
San Lorenzo & under 1.5	11.6%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.78
San Lorenzo & over 1.5	10.7%	12.9%	17.5%	0.73×	7.78
San Lorenzo & over 2.5	6.8%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.69
Independiente & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	2.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	2.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.94
San Lorenzo & over 3.5	1.8%	4.8%	4.2%	1.13×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (1UP)	53.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
San Lorenzo (1UP)	33.8%	32.9%	—	—	3.04

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (2UP)	43.9%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
San Lorenzo (2UP)	22.3%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	46.6%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Independiente to win 2nd half	33.5%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
San Lorenzo to win 2nd half	19.9%	19.4%	—	—	5.15

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (+2.5)	94.6%	92.1%	95.0%	0.97×	1.09
San Lorenzo (+1.5)	82.1%	82.4%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Independiente (+0.5)	77.7%	78.5%	72.2%	1.09×	1.27
San Lorenzo (+0.5)	56.1%	57.0%	58.3%	0.98×	1.75
Independiente (-0.5)	43.9%	43.0%	41.7%	1.03×	2.33
San Lorenzo (-0.5)	22.3%	21.5%	27.8%	0.78×	4.64
Independiente (-1.5)	17.9%	17.6%	17.5%	1.00×	5.68
Independiente (-2.5)	5.4%	7.9%	5.0%	1.56×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to concede	64.9%	67.3%	68.1%	0.99×	1.49
San Lorenzo clean sheet	35.1%	32.7%	31.9%	1.03×	3.05

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet in 1st half	63.7%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
San Lorenzo to concede in 1st half	36.3%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 6.5 corners	95.3%	91.7%	—	—	1.09
San Lorenzo under 5.5 corners	90.3%	89.2%	—	—	1.12
San Lorenzo under 4.5 corners	81.6%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
San Lorenzo under 3.5 corners	67.6%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
San Lorenzo over 2.5 corners	51.7%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
San Lorenzo under 2.5 corners	48.3%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
San Lorenzo over 3.5 corners	32.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
San Lorenzo over 4.5 corners	18.4%	19.1%	—	—	5.25
San Lorenzo over 5.5 corners	9.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.25
San Lorenzo over 6.5 corners	4.7%	8.3%	—	—	12.10

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 3.5 goals	99.5%	97.6%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
San Lorenzo under 2.5 goals	97.1%	97.6%	93.3%	1.05×	1.03
San Lorenzo under 1.5 goals	85.9%	87.9%	78.2%	1.12×	1.14
San Lorenzo under 0.5 goals	51.8%	53.7%	42.4%	1.27×	1.86
San Lorenzo over 0.5 goals	48.2%	46.3%	57.6%	0.80×	2.16
San Lorenzo over 1.5 goals	14.1%	12.1%	21.8%	0.56×	8.24
San Lorenzo over 2.5 goals	2.9%	2.4%	6.7%	0.37×	41.04
San Lorenzo over 3.5 goals	0.5%	2.4%	1.1%	2.12×	41.18

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 1.5 in 1st half	97.1%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
San Lorenzo under 0.5 in 1st half	76.9%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
San Lorenzo over 0.5 in 1st half	23.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.12
San Lorenzo over 1.5 in 1st half	2.9%	4.2%	—	—	23.82

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (away no bet)	56.6%	57.5%	57.7%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	43.4%	42.5%	42.3%	1.01×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo even goals	63.4%	59.1%	58.4%	1.01×	1.69
San Lorenzo odd goals	36.6%	40.9%	41.6%	0.98×	2.45

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	95.8%	95.9%	—	—	1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals	4.2%	4.1%	—	—	24.42

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	61.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Not both halves under 1.5	38.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	33.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Independiente to score 2+ in a row	24.5%	19.4%	—	—	5.16
San Lorenzo to score 2+ in a row	11.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.37
Either team to score 3+ in a row	8.7%	5.6%	—	—	17.83
Independiente to score 3+ in a row	6.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.98
San Lorenzo to score 3+ in a row	1.9%	2.6%	—	—	38.96

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente corners (+3.5)	97.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Independiente corners (+2.5)	95.9%	94.0%	—	—	1.06
Independiente corners (+1.5)	92.6%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Independiente corners (-1.5)	71.4%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Independiente corners (-2.5)	61.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Independiente corners (-3.5)	50.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
San Lorenzo corners (+3.5)	49.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
San Lorenzo corners (+2.5)	38.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
San Lorenzo corners (+1.5)	28.6%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
San Lorenzo corners (-1.5)	7.4%	11.3%	—	—	8.82
San Lorenzo corners (-2.5)	4.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.56
San Lorenzo corners (-3.5)	2.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.67

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.4%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
9-11 corners	28.6%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	28.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.0%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.0%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	63.5%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 8.5 corners	56.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.9%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Over 9.5 corners	46.2%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Under 8.5 corners	43.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.5%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 7.5 corners	33.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	28.0%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	18.7%	13.8%	14.2%	0.97×	7.26
0-0	18.5%	13.8%	14.8%	0.93×	7.26
1-1	12.9%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
0-1	11.6%	11.5%	10.3%	1.11×	8.73
2-0	10.0%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.46
2-1	6.6%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.46
0-2	3.9%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.57
0-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.59
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.6%	2.98×	58.59
1-2	4.1%	1.7%	7.1%	0.24×	58.57
1-3	0.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.59
1-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	4.96×	58.59
2-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.58
2-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.59
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.88×	58.59
3-0	3.5%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.57
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.58
3-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.59
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.96×	58.59
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	14.88×	58.59
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.59
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.59
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.96×	58.59
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.44×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.44×	58.59
Any other score	0.5%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente leading at HT (DNB)	65.4%	73.2%	—	—	1.37
San Lorenzo leading at HT (DNB)	34.6%	26.8%	—	—	3.73

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw (1X)	77.7%	75.6%	72.2%	1.05×	1.32
Independiente or San Lorenzo (12)	66.3%	69.6%	69.4%	1.00×	1.44
San Lorenzo or draw (X2)	56.1%	57.0%	58.3%	0.98×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw at HT	84.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
San Lorenzo or draw at HT	70.6%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Independiente or San Lorenzo at HT	44.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw (1UP)	77.7%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
San Lorenzo or draw (1UP)	56.1%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente or draw in 2nd half	80.1%	80.6%	—	—	1.24
San Lorenzo or draw in 2nd half	66.5%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Independiente or San Lorenzo in 2nd half	53.4%	54.3%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	75.7%	76.3%	—	—	1.31
Neither half drawn	24.3%	23.7%	—	—	4.21

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (DNB)	66.3%	67.1%	60.1%	1.12×	1.49
San Lorenzo (DNB)	33.7%	32.9%	39.9%	0.82×	3.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score first	50.1%	54.0%	—	—	1.85
San Lorenzo to score first	31.4%	26.9%	—	—	3.72
No goal scored	18.5%	18.5%	—	—	5.41

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	68.3%	58.2%	59.5%	0.98×	1.72
Both teams to score	31.7%	41.8%	40.5%	1.03×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	62.7%	50.1%	52.9%	0.95×	2.00
Both score & over 2.5	18.8%	21.8%	27.2%	0.80×	4.59
Both score & under 2.5	12.9%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	5.7%	8.4%	6.8%	1.23×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	96.0%	91.7%	94.2%	0.97×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	4.0%	8.3%	5.8%	1.42×	12.08

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	85.2%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score in 2nd half	14.8%	14.4%	—	—	6.93

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	78.0%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Both score 2nd half only	13.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.52
Both score 1st half only	7.2%	6.7%	—	—	14.93
Both score in both halves	1.2%	4.8%	—	—	20.74

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.5%	91.9%	—	—	1.09
Both teams to score by HT	8.5%	8.1%	—	—	12.41

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	67.7%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
A goal in each half	32.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	48.8%	47.4%	39.1%	1.21×	2.11
2-3 goals	41.8%	42.1%	47.4%	0.89×	2.37
4-6 goals	9.2%	7.6%	13.3%	0.57×	13.09
7+ goals	0.2%	1.8%	0.5%	3.93×	55.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to score exactly 0	51.8%	47.3%	42.4%	1.12×	2.11
San Lorenzo to score exactly 1	34.1%	33.9%	35.9%	0.94×	2.95
San Lorenzo to score exactly 2	11.2%	12.8%	15.3%	0.84×	7.81
San Lorenzo to score 3+	2.9%	4.5%	6.7%	0.67×	22.28

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	36.6%	0.97×	2.81
Independiente to score exactly 0	35.1%	35.6%	31.9%	1.12×	2.81
Independiente to score exactly 2	19.3%	18.9%	21.8%	0.87×	5.30
Independiente to score 3+	8.9%	10.3%	10.0%	1.04×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	55.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Independiente leading at HT	29.4%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
San Lorenzo leading at HT	15.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente -1: 2	56.1%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Independiente -1: X	26.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Independiente -1: 1	17.9%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:1)	56.1%	55.8%	58.3%	0.96×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	26.0%	27.0%	24.3%	1.11×	3.70
Independiente (0:1)	17.9%	17.8%	17.5%	1.01×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:2)	82.1%	82.8%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.5%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.09
Independiente (0:2)	5.4%	7.7%	5.0%	1.53×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:3)	94.6%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	41.96
Independiente (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.3%	0.95×	83.35
Independiente (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.6%	2.09×	83.45

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (1:0)	77.7%	78.5%	72.2%	1.09×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	16.2%	17.0%	18.7%	0.91×	5.87
San Lorenzo (1:0)	6.1%	6.9%	9.2%	0.75×	14.51

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente (2:0)	93.9%	94.0%	90.8%	1.03×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.9%	2.3%	6.3%	0.36×	44.09
San Lorenzo (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	3.0%	0.76×	44.34

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	40.7%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Halves equal	34.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
1st half highest scoring	25.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente clean sheet	51.8%	53.1%	42.4%	1.25×	1.88
Independiente to concede	48.2%	46.9%	57.6%	0.81×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente clean sheet in 1st half	76.9%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Independiente to concede in 1st half	23.1%	22.5%	—	—	4.44

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente over 2.5 corners	91.1%	88.3%	—	—	1.13
Independiente over 3.5 corners	82.3%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Independiente over 4.5 corners	71.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Independiente over 5.5 corners	58.9%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Independiente under 6.5 corners	53.2%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Independiente over 6.5 corners	46.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Independiente under 5.5 corners	41.1%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Independiente under 4.5 corners	28.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Independiente under 3.5 corners	17.7%	18.7%	—	—	5.36
Independiente under 2.5 corners	8.9%	11.7%	—	—	8.51

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 3.5 goals	97.8%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Independiente under 2.5 goals	91.1%	92.2%	90.0%	1.02×	1.08
Independiente under 1.5 goals	71.8%	74.2%	68.3%	1.09×	1.35
Independiente over 0.5 goals	64.9%	63.4%	68.1%	0.93×	1.58
Independiente under 0.5 goals	35.1%	36.6%	31.9%	1.15×	2.73
Independiente over 1.5 goals	28.2%	25.8%	31.7%	0.81×	3.88
Independiente over 2.5 goals	8.9%	7.8%	10.0%	0.78×	12.87
Independiente over 3.5 goals	2.2%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente under 1.5 in 1st half	92.4%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Independiente under 0.5 in 1st half	63.7%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Independiente over 0.5 in 1st half	36.3%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Independiente over 1.5 in 1st half	7.6%	4.5%	—	—	22.25

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	60.2%	60.1%	52.5%	1.15×	1.66
San Lorenzo (home no bet)	39.8%	39.9%	47.5%	0.84×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente even goals	56.1%	55.4%	55.7%	0.99×	1.80
Independiente odd goals	43.9%	44.6%	44.3%	1.01×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	49.0%	47.9%	—	—	2.09
HT 1-0	22.0%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	12.8%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
HT 1-1	5.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.13
HT 2-0	5.0%	2.2%	—	—	44.55
HT 0-2	1.7%	2.2%	—	—	44.81
HT 2-1	1.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.84
Any other HT score	1.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.83
HT 1-2	0.8%	2.2%	—	—	44.88
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	26.0%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Independiente at HT / Independiente at FT	24.4%	22.2%	—	—	4.50
Draw at HT / Independiente at FT	18.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	10.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
San Lorenzo at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	10.7%	12.6%	—	—	7.91
Independiente at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
San Lorenzo at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.14
San Lorenzo at HT / Independiente at FT	1.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.24
Independiente at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente to score last	50.1%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
San Lorenzo to score last	31.4%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	18.5%	13.2%	—	—	7.59

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	81.5%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Independiente to lead by 1 at any time	53.9%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
San Lorenzo to lead by 1 at any time	33.8%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	29.2%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Independiente to lead by 2 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
San Lorenzo to lead by 2 at any time	8.3%	6.5%	—	—	15.28
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	7.7%	6.5%	—	—	15.31
Independiente to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.5%	—	—	15.39
San Lorenzo to lead by 3 at any time	1.5%	1.6%	—	—	64.42

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente most corners	80.4%	75.6%	—	—	1.32
San Lorenzo most corners	12.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.39
Corners level	7.1%	8.4%	—	—	11.92

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	80.7%	83.5%	84.3%	0.99×	1.20
1-4 goals	78.5%	78.6%	80.0%	0.98×	1.27
1-3 goals	72.1%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
1-2 goals	57.0%	59.2%	51.5%	1.15×	1.69
2-6 goals	51.0%	53.1%	60.6%	0.88×	1.88
2-5 goals	50.4%	53.1%	60.0%	0.89×	1.88
2-4 goals	48.2%	48.7%	55.7%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	41.8%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.29
3-6 goals	24.2%	24.5%	33.5%	0.73×	4.09
3-5 goals	23.6%	24.5%	32.9%	0.74×	4.09
3-4 goals	21.4%	24.4%	28.7%	0.85×	4.09
4-6 goals	9.2%	8.8%	13.3%	0.66×	11.43
4-5 goals	8.6%	8.7%	12.7%	0.69×	11.43
5-6 goals	2.8%	2.5%	4.9%	0.51×	39.45
7+ goals	0.2%	2.5%	0.5%	5.51×	39.58

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente never behind	47.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
San Lorenzo never behind	27.6%	30.0%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.8%	49.1%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.2%	50.9%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	62.1%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Odd goals in 1st half	37.9%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	57.1%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Odd goals in 2nd half	42.9%	39.5%	—	—	2.53

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.2%	95.5%	99.0%	0.97×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	97.0%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	86.4%	1.07×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	81.5%	82.4%	85.2%	0.97×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	75.6%	77.4%	66.2%	1.17×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	51.2%	52.4%	60.9%	0.86×	1.91
Under 1.5 goals	48.8%	47.6%	39.1%	1.22×	2.10
Over 2.5 goals	24.4%	22.6%	33.8%	0.67×	4.42
Under 0.5 goals	18.5%	17.6%	14.8%	1.19×	5.67
Over 3.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	13.6%	0.57×	12.94
Over 4.5 goals	3.0%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.20
Over 5.5 goals	0.8%	4.5%	1.0%	4.36×	22.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.8%	97.3%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.2%	97.3%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	96.8%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	88.9%	86.7%	82.9%	1.05×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	66.6%	67.3%	53.6%	1.26×	1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	33.4%	32.7%	46.4%	0.70×	3.06
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	11.1%	13.3%	17.1%	0.78×	7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	3.2%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	36.35
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	0.8%	2.7%	1.1%	2.55×	36.42
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.2%	2.7%	0.5%	5.95×	36.44

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	96.4%	96.9%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	83.9%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	51.0%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Under 0.5 in 1st half	49.0%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Over 1.5 in 1st half	16.1%	13.5%	—	—	7.41
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.6%	3.1%	—	—	32.78

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	92.1%	89.5%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	73.7%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	62.8%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	37.2%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	26.3%	22.0%	—	—	4.54
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	7.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.50

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to score in both halves	92.5%	90.3%	—	—	1.11
Independiente not to score in both halves	83.7%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Independiente to score in both halves	16.3%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
San Lorenzo to score in both halves	7.5%	9.7%	—	—	10.30

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Independiente scores	33.3%	33.4%	27.8%	1.20×	3.00
Both teams score	31.7%	33.4%	40.5%	0.82×	3.00
Neither team scores	18.5%	16.1%	14.8%	1.09×	6.20
Only San Lorenzo scores	16.5%	16.1%	17.2%	0.94×	6.21

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	30.2%	25.1%	24.4%	1.03×	3.98
Exactly 2 goals	26.8%	25.0%	27.2%	0.92×	4.01
Exactly 0 goals	18.5%	17.5%	14.8%	1.18×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	15.0%	17.4%	20.3%	0.86×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	6.4%	7.6%	8.5%	0.90×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	2.2%	4.4%	4.4%	1.01×	22.64
6 or more goals	0.8%	4.4%	1.0%	4.28×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
No goals in 2nd half	37.2%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	36.5%	39.8%	—	—	2.51
2+ goals in 2nd half	26.3%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to win both halves	96.9%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Independiente not to win both halves	90.1%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Independiente to win both halves	9.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.39
San Lorenzo to win both halves	3.1%	2.8%	—	—	35.43

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to win neither half	67.7%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Independiente to win either half	53.0%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Independiente to win neither half	47.0%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
San Lorenzo to win either half	32.3%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to win to nil	83.5%	83.0%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
Independiente not to win to nil	66.7%	69.6%	72.2%	0.96×	1.44
Independiente to win to nil	33.3%	30.4%	27.8%	1.09×	3.29
San Lorenzo to win to nil	16.5%	17.0%	17.2%	0.99×	5.88

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Independiente by 1	26.0%	27.8%	24.3%	1.14×	3.59
Draw	33.7%	27.6%	30.6%	0.90×	3.62
San Lorenzo by 1	16.2%	16.9%	18.7%	0.91×	5.90
Independiente by 2	12.5%	11.8%	12.6%	0.94×	8.46
Independiente by 3+	5.4%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.81
San Lorenzo by 2	4.9%	2.7%	6.3%	0.43×	36.91
San Lorenzo by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	3.0%	0.91×	37.03