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Instituto (Córdoba) v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 15 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Instituto (Córdoba) win
60.9%
model 58.8%
Draw
28.5%
model 27.7%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto win
10.6%
model 13.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 19.9%
  2. 0-0 14.5%
  3. 2-0 14.4%
  4. 1-1 11.0%
  5. 2-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.531.0% Under 2.569.0%
BTTS yes31.5% BTTS no68.5%
Instituto (Córdoba) 1+75.9% Instituto (Córdoba) 2+41.5%
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 1+41.1% Estudiantes de Río Cuarto 2+9.9%

Expected goals 1.42 – 0.53. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Instituto (Córdoba) (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 42%
56.9% fair odds 1.76
strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 90%
82.8% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Instituto (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1344.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Instituto (Córdoba) have an estimated 60.9% win probability, against 28.5% for the draw and 10.6% for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.42 for Instituto (Córdoba) and 0.53 for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.

Why Instituto (Córdoba)

Instituto (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1344. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.5%. A combined 1.95 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Estudiantes de Río Cuarto can win

Nothing in the data singles out Estudiantes de Río Cuarto.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Instituto (Córdoba), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Instituto (Córdoba): 48% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Estudiantes de Río Cuarto: 44% possession, 7.8 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Instituto (Córdoba)'s shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Instituto (Córdoba) are the model's most likely outcome at 60.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 19.9%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.42–0.53 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.25–0.37 1-0 25% 22% 22%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 58.7% 54.1% 41.7% 1.30× 1.85
Draw 30.7% 30.3% 30.6% 0.99× 3.30
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win 10.6% 13.3% 27.8% 0.48× 7.54
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) & not both score 49.1% 43.2% 27.8% 1.56× 2.32
Draw & not both score 20.2% 21.9% 14.8% 1.48× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 10.5% 13.3% 15.9% 0.83× 7.55
Instituto (Córdoba) & both teams score 9.6% 8.4% 14.1% 0.59× 11.92
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & not both score 8.6% 8.4% 17.2% 0.49× 11.93
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & both teams score 2.0% 4.8% 10.7% 0.45× 20.62
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 3.5 52.1% 48.7% 34.9% 1.40× 2.05
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 2.5 40.0% 40.3% 23.6% 1.71× 2.48
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 1.5 34.2% 30.9% 27.6% 1.12× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 29.6% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 29.6% 26.0% 28.1% 0.93× 3.84
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 1.5 24.6% 21.7% 14.2% 1.52× 4.62
Draw & under 1.5 20.2% 21.7% 14.8% 1.46× 4.62
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 2.5 18.7% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 10.5% 12.9% 15.9% 0.81× 7.77
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & under 3.5 10.2% 12.9% 23.6% 0.54× 7.77
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & under 2.5 8.4% 7.9% 14.7% 0.54× 12.70
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 3.5 6.6% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.70
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & under 1.5 7.0% 7.9% 10.3% 0.76× 12.70
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & over 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 17.5% 0.27× 20.94
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & over 2.5 2.2% 4.8% 13.2% 0.36× 20.95
Draw & over 2.5 1.1% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.95
Draw & over 3.5 1.1% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.95
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto & over 3.5 0.4% 4.8% 4.2% 1.12× 20.96
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (1UP) 64.8% 63.3% 1.58
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (1UP) 19.0% 23.9% 4.19
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2UP) 58.7% 55.3% 1.81
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (2UP) 10.6% 13.1% 7.64
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 46.0% 45.3% 2.21
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 43.6% 41.1% 2.43
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win 2nd half 10.4% 11.9% 8.38
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (+2.5) 89.9% 88.5% 95.0% 0.93× 1.13
Instituto (Córdoba) (+0.5) 89.4% 88.5% 72.2% 1.23× 1.13
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (+1.5) 72.0% 73.7% 82.5% 0.89× 1.36
Instituto (Córdoba) (-0.5) 58.7% 57.0% 41.7% 1.37× 1.75
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (+0.5) 41.3% 43.0% 58.3% 0.74× 2.33
Instituto (Córdoba) (-1.5) 28.0% 26.3% 17.5% 1.50× 3.80
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (-0.5) 10.6% 11.5% 27.8% 0.41× 8.71
Instituto (Córdoba) (-2.5) 10.1% 11.5% 5.0% 2.27× 8.71
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to concede 71.2% 76.4% 68.1% 1.12× 1.31
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto clean sheet 28.8% 23.6% 31.9% 0.74× 4.24
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto clean sheet in 1st half 58.5% 58.5% 1.71
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to concede in 1st half 41.5% 41.5% 2.41
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 6.5 corners 92.3% 90.1% 1.11
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 5.5 corners 85.5% 85.2% 1.17
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 4.5 corners 74.4% 71.6% 1.40
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 2.5 corners 61.1% 61.8% 1.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 3.5 corners 58.4% 57.1% 1.75
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 3.5 corners 41.6% 42.9% 2.33
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 2.5 corners 38.9% 38.2% 2.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 4.5 corners 25.6% 28.4% 3.52
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 5.5 corners 14.5% 14.8% 6.75
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 6.5 corners 7.7% 10.0% 10.05
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 3.5 goals 99.9% 97.6% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 2.5 goals 99.4% 97.6% 93.3% 1.05× 1.03
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 1.5 goals 94.7% 92.3% 78.2% 1.18× 1.08
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 0.5 goals 69.3% 68.0% 42.4% 1.60× 1.47
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 0.5 goals 30.7% 32.0% 57.6% 0.56× 3.12
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 1.5 goals 5.3% 7.7% 21.8% 0.35× 13.06
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 2.5 goals 0.6% 2.4% 6.7% 0.37× 40.85
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 3.5 goals 0.1% 2.4% 1.1% 2.13× 40.88
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 1.5 in 1st half 99.0% 96.1% 1.04
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto under 0.5 in 1st half 86.3% 89.0% 1.12
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 0.5 in 1st half 13.7% 11.0% 9.08
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto over 1.5 in 1st half 1.0% 3.9% 25.79
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (away no bet) 65.7% 66.3% 57.7% 1.15× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 34.3% 33.7% 42.3% 0.80× 2.97
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto even goals 74.0% 68.4% 58.4% 1.17× 1.46
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto odd goals 26.0% 31.6% 41.6% 0.76× 3.16
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 96.4% 96.5% 1.04
Both halves over 1.5 goals 3.6% 3.5% 28.68
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 64.6% 58.2% 1.72
Not both halves under 1.5 35.4% 41.8% 2.39
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 36.0% 36.4% 2.75
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 32.8% 29.0% 3.45
Either team to score 3+ in a row 11.7% 12.2% 8.23
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 11.3% 12.1% 8.24
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score 2+ in a row 3.8% 2.6% 38.24
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score 3+ in a row 0.4% 2.5% 40.42
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 96.5% 95.8% 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 93.7% 89.6% 1.12
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 89.2% 84.5% 1.18
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 64.2% 61.9% 1.62
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (+3.5) 57.7% 57.1% 1.75
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 53.2% 52.5% 1.91
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (+2.5) 46.8% 47.5% 2.10
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 42.3% 42.9% 2.33
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (+1.5) 35.8% 38.1% 2.63
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (-1.5) 10.8% 15.5% 6.46
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (-2.5) 6.3% 10.4% 9.59
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto corners (-3.5) 3.5% 4.2% 23.56
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 41.5% 38.6% 2.59
9-11 corners 30.0% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 28.5% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 79.0% 76.5% 1.31
Under 11.5 corners 71.5% 72.6% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 69.2% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 62.5% 63.4% 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 58.5% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 52.3% 53.3% 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 47.7% 46.7% 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 41.5% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 37.5% 36.6% 2.73
Under 7.5 corners 30.8% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 28.5% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 21.0% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 24.6% 20.3% 14.2% 1.43× 4.93
0-0 20.2% 20.1% 14.8% 1.36× 4.99
2-0 15.5% 13.7% 9.5% 1.44× 7.28
1-1 9.4% 7.4% 13.4% 0.55× 13.48
0-1 7.0% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.48
2-1 5.7% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.48
3-0 6.4% 7.4% 2.8% 2.70× 13.48
0-2 1.3% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.48
0-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.49
0-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.49
1-2 1.7% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.48
1-3 0.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.49
1-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
2-2 1.0% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.48
2-3 0.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.49
2-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
3-1 2.4% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.48
3-2 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.49
3-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
4-0 2.0% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.48
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
4-2 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
Any other score 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 81.8% 86.4% 1.16
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto leading at HT (DNB) 18.2% 13.6% 7.35
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1X) 89.4% 86.7% 72.2% 1.20× 1.15
Instituto (Córdoba) or Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (12) 69.3% 69.7% 69.4% 1.00× 1.44
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw (X2) 41.3% 45.9% 58.3% 0.79× 2.18
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw at HT 91.7% 90.0% 1.11
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw at HT 62.9% 62.1% 1.61
Instituto (Córdoba) or Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT 45.3% 51.5% 1.94
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 89.4% 92.0% 1.09
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw (1UP) 41.3% 52.5% 1.91
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 89.6% 88.1% 1.14
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto or draw in 2nd half 56.4% 58.9% 1.70
Instituto (Córdoba) or Estudiantes de Río Cuarto in 2nd half 54.0% 54.7% 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 75.3% 75.9% 1.32
Neither half drawn 24.7% 24.1% 4.15
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (DNB) 84.7% 80.6% 60.1% 1.34× 1.24
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (DNB) 15.3% 19.4% 39.9% 0.49× 5.16
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score first 61.6% 64.4% 1.55
No goal scored 20.2% 22.3% 4.49
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score first 18.2% 18.3% 5.47
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 77.9% 62.4% 59.5% 1.05× 1.60
Both teams to score 22.1% 37.6% 40.5% 0.93× 2.66
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 68.6% 57.5% 52.9% 1.09× 1.74
Both score & over 2.5 12.8% 12.3% 27.2% 0.45× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 9.4% 8.4% 13.4% 0.62× 11.95
Not both score & over 2.5 9.2% 8.4% 6.8% 1.24× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 98.1% 91.8% 94.2% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 1.9% 8.2% 5.8% 1.40× 12.18
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 89.9% 90.1% 1.11
Both teams to score in 2nd half 10.1% 9.9% 10.11
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 84.7% 85.1% 1.18
Both score 2nd half only 9.6% 6.8% 14.61
Both score 1st half only 5.1% 6.7% 14.85
Both score in both halves 0.6% 4.8% 20.65
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 94.3% 94.4% 1.06
Both teams to score by HT 5.7% 5.6% 17.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 69.9% 67.1% 1.49
A goal in each half 30.1% 32.9% 3.04
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.1% 42.1% 47.4% 0.89× 2.38
0-1 goals 51.8% 41.2% 39.1% 1.05× 2.43
4-6 goals 7.9% 7.6% 13.3% 0.57× 13.16
7+ goals 0.1% 1.8% 0.5% 3.98× 54.79
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score exactly 0 69.3% 60.4% 42.4% 1.42× 1.66
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score exactly 1 25.4% 27.4% 35.9% 0.76× 3.65
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score exactly 2 4.7% 4.5% 15.3% 0.30× 21.98
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score 3+ 0.6% 4.5% 6.7% 0.68× 22.27
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 35.8% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 28.8% 26.5% 31.9% 0.83× 3.77
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 22.3% 23.2% 21.8% 1.07× 4.30
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ 13.1% 14.3% 10.0% 1.44× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 54.7% 48.5% 2.06
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT 37.1% 37.9% 2.64
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto leading at HT 8.3% 10.0% 10.00
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: 2 41.3% 42.7% 2.34
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: X 30.7% 30.0% 3.33
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: 1 28.0% 26.5% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:1) 41.3% 42.7% 58.3% 0.73× 2.34
Draw (0:1) 30.7% 30.0% 24.3% 1.23× 3.34
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:1) 28.0% 27.0% 17.5% 1.54× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:2) 72.0% 75.6% 82.5% 0.92× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 18.0% 15.3% 12.6% 1.21× 6.54
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:2) 10.1% 11.0% 5.0% 2.17× 9.13
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:3) 89.9% 90.8% 95.0% 0.96× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.2% 5.8% 3.4% 1.69× 17.16
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:3) 2.9% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.14
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (0:4) 97.1% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.42
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.61
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (1:0) 89.4% 86.5% 72.2% 1.20× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 8.9% 6.9% 18.7% 0.37× 14.42
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (1:0) 1.8% 3.1% 9.2% 0.34× 31.83
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2:0) 98.2% 96.9% 90.8% 1.07× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 1.6% 2.3% 6.3% 0.36× 44.27
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (2:0) 0.2% 2.3% 3.0% 0.76× 44.36
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 39.5% 39.5% 2.54
Halves equal 35.1% 35.1% 2.85
1st half highest scoring 25.4% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet 69.3% 66.6% 42.4% 1.57× 1.50
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede 30.7% 33.4% 57.6% 0.58× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 86.3% 86.3% 1.16
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 13.7% 13.7% 7.32
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 90.5% 89.3% 1.12
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 81.0% 80.9% 1.24
Instituto (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 68.9% 66.7% 1.50
Instituto (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 57.2% 57.5% 1.74
Instituto (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 55.6% 57.5% 1.74
Instituto (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 44.4% 42.5% 2.35
Instituto (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 42.8% 42.5% 2.35
Instituto (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 31.1% 33.3% 3.00
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 19.0% 19.1% 5.25
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 9.5% 10.7% 9.35
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 96.2% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 86.9% 87.3% 90.0% 0.97× 1.15
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 71.2% 74.2% 68.1% 1.09× 1.35
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 64.6% 63.5% 68.3% 0.93× 1.58
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 35.4% 36.5% 31.7% 1.15× 2.74
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 28.8% 25.8% 31.9% 0.81× 3.87
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 13.1% 12.7% 10.0% 1.28× 7.85
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 3.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.44
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 89.9% 89.9% 1.11
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 58.5% 58.2% 1.72
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 41.5% 41.9% 2.39
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 10.1% 10.1% 9.87
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 74.3% 66.7% 52.5% 1.27× 1.50
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (home no bet) 25.7% 33.3% 47.5% 0.70× 3.00
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) even goals 54.1% 50.6% 55.7% 0.91× 1.97
Instituto (Córdoba) odd goals 45.9% 49.4% 44.3% 1.11× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 50.6% 49.3% 2.03
HT 1-0 27.0% 28.8% 3.47
HT 0-1 7.4% 7.1% 14.05
HT 2-0 7.3% 7.1% 14.05
HT 1-1 4.0% 2.3% 43.31
Any other HT score 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-1 1.1% 2.3% 43.53
HT 0-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.57
HT 1-2 0.3% 2.3% 43.59
HT 2-2 0.1% 2.3% 43.61
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 34.0% 33.0% 3.03
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 25.4% 26.7% 3.75
Draw at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 23.7% 21.8% 4.58
Draw at HT / Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.72
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT / Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at FT 4.7% 3.5% 28.78
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 2.8% 3.5% 28.85
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT / Draw at FT 2.5% 3.5% 28.87
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 1.1% 3.5% 28.92
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Estudiantes de Río Cuarto at FT 0.3% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score last 61.7% 62.0% 1.61
No goal scored 20.2% 25.8% 3.88
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score last 18.1% 13.0% 7.72
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 79.8% 78.5% 1.27
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 64.8% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 33.0% 29.4% 3.40
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 30.3% 29.3% 3.41
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to lead by 1 at any time 19.0% 14.9% 6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.0% 10.4% 9.58
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 10.8% 10.4% 9.58
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to lead by 2 at any time 2.6% 1.6% 61.70
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to lead by 3 at any time 0.3% 1.6% 64.11
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) most corners 74.3% 70.7% 1.41
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto most corners 17.2% 19.2% 5.22
Corners level 8.5% 8.5% 11.81
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 79.2% 78.6% 84.3% 0.93× 1.27
1-4 goals 77.4% 78.6% 80.0% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 71.7% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 57.8% 59.2% 51.5% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 48.1% 48.7% 60.6% 0.80× 2.06
2-5 goals 47.6% 48.7% 60.0% 0.81× 2.06
2-4 goals 45.8% 48.7% 55.7% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 40.1% 43.6% 47.4% 0.92× 2.30
3-6 goals 21.9% 24.5% 33.5% 0.73× 4.09
3-5 goals 21.4% 24.5% 32.9% 0.74× 4.09
3-4 goals 19.6% 18.6% 28.7% 0.65× 5.37
4-6 goals 7.9% 8.7% 13.3% 0.66× 11.44
4-5 goals 7.4% 8.7% 12.7% 0.69× 11.45
5-6 goals 2.3% 2.5% 4.9% 0.52× 39.23
7+ goals 0.1% 2.5% 0.5% 5.54× 39.33
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) never behind 60.8% 67.3% 1.49
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto never behind 15.0% 13.4% 7.48
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.5% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.5% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 62.9% 59.4% 1.68
Odd goals in 1st half 37.1% 40.6% 2.46
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 58.0% 60.4% 1.66
Odd goals in 2nd half 42.0% 39.6% 2.53
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.4% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 97.6% 95.5% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 86.4% 1.07× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 79.8% 77.4% 85.2% 0.91× 1.29
Under 2.5 goals 78.0% 77.3% 66.2% 1.17× 1.29
Under 1.5 goals 51.8% 52.5% 39.1% 1.34× 1.91
Over 1.5 goals 48.2% 47.5% 60.9% 0.78× 2.10
Over 2.5 goals 22.0% 22.7% 33.8% 0.67× 4.42
Under 0.5 goals 20.2% 22.6% 14.8% 1.53× 4.42
Over 3.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 13.6% 0.57× 12.92
Over 4.5 goals 2.4% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.22
Over 5.5 goals 0.6% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.26
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.9% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.4% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 97.4% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 90.6% 92.5% 82.9% 1.12× 1.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.2% 72.5% 53.6% 1.35× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.8% 27.5% 46.4% 0.59× 3.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 9.4% 7.6% 17.1% 0.44× 13.25
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 2.6% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 0.6% 2.8% 1.1% 2.56× 36.20
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.1% 2.8% 0.5% 5.98× 36.22
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.8% 97.3% 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 85.0% 86.4% 1.16
Under 0.5 in 1st half 50.6% 56.3% 1.78
Over 0.5 in 1st half 49.4% 43.7% 2.29
Over 1.5 in 1st half 15.0% 13.6% 7.33
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.2% 2.7% 36.66
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 93.2% 89.6% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 76.0% 79.7% 1.26
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 60.5% 61.6% 1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 39.5% 38.4% 2.60
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 24.0% 20.3% 4.92
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 6.8% 10.4% 9.59
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto not to score in both halves 97.3% 97.4% 1.03
Instituto (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 78.9% 78.3% 1.28
Instituto (Córdoba) to score in both halves 21.1% 21.7% 4.61
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to score in both halves 2.7% 2.6% 38.91
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Instituto (Córdoba) scores 49.1% 50.5% 27.8% 1.82× 1.98
Both teams score 22.1% 22.3% 40.5% 0.55× 4.48
Neither team scores 20.2% 22.3% 14.8% 1.51× 4.48
Only Estudiantes de Río Cuarto scores 8.6% 7.2% 17.2% 0.42× 13.90
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 31.6% 25.3% 24.4% 1.03× 3.96
Exactly 2 goals 26.2% 25.0% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 0 goals 20.2% 22.6% 14.8% 1.53× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 13.9% 12.1% 20.3% 0.60× 8.27
Exactly 4 goals 5.6% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 1.8% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.69
6 or more goals 0.6% 4.4% 1.0% 4.27× 22.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
No goals in 2nd half 39.5% 40.0% 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 36.5% 39.6% 2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half 24.0% 23.2% 4.32
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto not to win both halves 99.1% 97.3% 1.03
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win both halves 83.8% 84.3% 1.19
Instituto (Córdoba) to win both halves 16.2% 15.7% 6.36
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win both halves 0.9% 2.7% 36.94
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win neither half 82.2% 82.9% 1.21
Instituto (Córdoba) to win either half 64.4% 65.1% 1.54
Instituto (Córdoba) to win neither half 35.6% 34.9% 2.87
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win either half 17.8% 17.1% 5.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto not to win to nil 91.4% 92.0% 82.8% 1.11× 1.09
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win to nil 50.9% 54.0% 72.2% 0.75× 1.85
Instituto (Córdoba) to win to nil 49.1% 46.0% 27.8% 1.66× 2.17
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto to win to nil 8.6% 8.0% 17.2% 0.46× 12.54
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) by 1 30.7% 27.6% 24.3% 1.13× 3.63
Draw 30.7% 27.6% 30.6% 0.90× 3.63
Instituto (Córdoba) by 2 18.0% 16.9% 12.6% 1.34× 5.91
Instituto (Córdoba) by 3+ 10.1% 11.8% 5.0% 2.34× 8.48
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto by 1 8.9% 7.3% 18.7% 0.39× 13.78
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto by 2 1.6% 2.7% 6.3% 0.43× 37.03
Estudiantes de Río Cuarto by 3+ 0.2% 2.7% 3.0% 0.90× 37.08
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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