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Instituto (Córdoba) v Talleres (Córdoba) — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 20 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Instituto (Córdoba) win
50.0%
model 49.4%
Draw
28.2%
model 28.3%
Talleres (Córdoba) win
21.9%
model 22.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 14.7%
  2. 1-1 12.9%
  3. 0-0 11.3%
  4. 2-0 10.4%
  5. 0-1 8.7%

Goals

Over 2.538.1% Under 2.561.9%
BTTS yes42.7% BTTS no57.3%
Instituto (Córdoba) 1+74.9% Instituto (Córdoba) 2+40.2%
Talleres (Córdoba) 1+56.5% Talleres (Córdoba) 2+20.3%

Expected goals 1.38 – 0.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
2-5 goals
Multi goal · usually 60%
62.7% fair odds 1.60
moderate signal · 3105 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals
Home goals O/U · usually 90%
82.8% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1110 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Instituto (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1452.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Instituto (Córdoba) have an estimated 50.0% win probability, against 28.2% for the draw and 21.9% for Talleres (Córdoba). Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.38 for Instituto (Córdoba) and 0.83 for Talleres (Córdoba).

Why Instituto (Córdoba)

Instituto (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1538 Elo against 1452. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.2%. A combined 2.21 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Talleres (Córdoba) can win

Nothing in the data singles out Talleres (Córdoba).

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Instituto (Córdoba), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Talleres (Córdoba), so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Instituto (Córdoba): 48% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 8.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Talleres (Córdoba): 53% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 21.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Instituto (Córdoba)'s shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Instituto (Córdoba) are the model's most likely outcome at 50.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 14.7%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.38–0.83 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.10–0.70 1-0 18% 27% 34%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 44.4% 43.0% 41.7% 1.03× 2.32
Draw 32.7% 30.4% 30.6% 0.99× 3.29
Talleres (Córdoba) to win 22.9% 24.4% 27.8% 0.88× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) & not both score 32.7% 29.7% 27.8% 1.07× 3.36
Draw & not both score 16.9% 17.9% 14.8% 1.21× 5.58
Talleres (Córdoba) & not both score 16.5% 17.9% 17.2% 1.04× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 15.8% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Instituto (Córdoba) & both teams score 11.7% 13.2% 14.1% 0.94× 7.55
Talleres (Córdoba) & both teams score 6.5% 8.4% 10.7% 0.78× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 3.5 38.4% 34.9% 34.9% 1.00× 2.86
Draw & under 2.5 30.0% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Draw & under 3.5 30.0% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 2.5 27.7% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 1.5 26.6% 26.0% 27.6% 0.94× 3.84
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 3.5 20.7% 21.6% 23.6% 0.92× 4.62
Instituto (Córdoba) & under 1.5 17.8% 18.0% 14.2% 1.27× 5.56
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 2.5 16.6% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 16.9% 18.0% 14.8% 1.22× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 15.8% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 2.5 15.3% 18.0% 14.7% 1.23× 5.56
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 1.5 11.7% 12.9% 17.5% 0.73× 7.78
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 1.5 11.2% 12.9% 10.3% 1.25× 7.78
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 2.5 7.6% 7.9% 13.2% 0.60× 12.69
Instituto (Córdoba) & over 3.5 6.0% 7.9% 7.0% 1.13× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 2.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.94
Draw & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.94
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 3.5 2.2% 4.8% 4.2% 1.13× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (1UP) 54.9% 52.9% 1.89
Talleres (Córdoba) (1UP) 35.0% 33.7% 2.97
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2UP) 44.4% 47.8% 2.09
Talleres (Córdoba) (2UP) 22.9% 23.6% 4.24
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 45.2% 45.5% 2.20
Instituto (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 34.2% 34.5% 2.90
Talleres (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 20.6% 22.9% 4.37
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (+2.5) 94.1% 92.1% 95.0% 0.97× 1.09
Talleres (Córdoba) (+1.5) 81.3% 82.4% 82.5% 1.00× 1.21
Instituto (Córdoba) (+0.5) 77.1% 78.5% 72.2% 1.09× 1.27
Talleres (Córdoba) (+0.5) 55.6% 57.0% 58.3% 0.98× 1.75
Instituto (Córdoba) (-0.5) 44.4% 43.0% 41.7% 1.03× 2.33
Talleres (Córdoba) (-0.5) 22.9% 21.5% 27.8% 0.78× 4.64
Instituto (Córdoba) (-1.5) 18.7% 17.6% 17.5% 1.00× 5.68
Instituto (Córdoba) (-2.5) 5.9% 7.9% 5.0% 1.56× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to concede 66.6% 72.5% 68.1% 1.06× 1.38
Talleres (Córdoba) clean sheet 33.4% 27.5% 31.9% 0.86× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 62.4% 64.8% 1.54
Talleres (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 37.6% 35.2% 2.84
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 91.4% 89.2% 1.12
Talleres (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 84.4% 81.0% 1.24
Talleres (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 73.3% 72.3% 1.38
Talleres (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 61.4% 61.4% 1.63
Talleres (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 57.7% 56.9% 1.76
Talleres (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 42.3% 43.1% 2.32
Talleres (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 38.6% 38.6% 2.59
Talleres (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 26.7% 27.7% 3.62
Talleres (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 15.6% 19.0% 5.25
Talleres (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 8.6% 10.8% 9.27
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 99.4% 97.6% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Talleres (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 96.6% 97.6% 93.3% 1.05× 1.03
Talleres (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 84.4% 81.5% 78.2% 1.04× 1.23
Talleres (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 50.4% 53.7% 57.6% 0.93× 1.86
Talleres (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 49.6% 46.3% 42.4% 1.09× 2.16
Talleres (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 15.7% 18.5% 21.8% 0.85× 5.40
Talleres (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 3.4% 2.4% 6.7% 0.37× 41.01
Talleres (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 0.6% 2.4% 1.1% 2.12× 41.17
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 96.7% 95.7% 1.04
Talleres (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 75.5% 75.5% 1.33
Talleres (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 24.5% 24.5% 4.08
Talleres (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 3.3% 4.3% 23.52
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (away no bet) 57.6% 57.5% 57.7% 1.00× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 42.4% 42.5% 42.3% 1.00× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) even goals 62.3% 59.1% 58.4% 1.01× 1.69
Talleres (Córdoba) odd goals 37.7% 40.9% 41.6% 0.98× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 95.1% 95.2% 1.05
Both halves over 1.5 goals 4.9% 4.8% 20.88
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 59.1% 59.9% 1.67
Not both halves under 1.5 40.9% 40.1% 2.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 36.2% 36.2% 2.76
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 25.9% 25.1% 3.98
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 12.1% 12.0% 8.35
Either team to score 3+ in a row 9.6% 5.6% 17.75
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 7.5% 5.6% 17.93
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 2.2% 2.6% 38.77
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 96.5% 94.0% 1.06
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 93.8% 88.7% 1.13
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 89.7% 84.2% 1.19
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 66.7% 66.8% 1.50
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 56.5% 56.8% 1.76
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 53.9% 52.3% 1.91
Instituto (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 46.1% 47.7% 2.10
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 43.5% 43.2% 2.31
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 33.3% 33.2% 3.01
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 10.3% 15.8% 6.32
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 6.2% 11.3% 8.82
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 3.5% 6.0% 16.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.6% 35.1% 2.85
12+ corners 33.4% 32.0% 3.13
9-11 corners 29.0% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 74.4% 72.5% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 72.3% 72.5% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 66.6% 67.9% 1.47
Over 8.5 corners 62.4% 62.7% 1.60
Under 10.5 corners 57.6% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 52.2% 52.2% 1.91
Under 9.5 corners 47.8% 47.8% 2.09
Over 10.5 corners 42.4% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.6% 37.3% 2.68
Over 11.5 corners 33.4% 32.1% 3.12
Under 7.5 corners 27.7% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 25.6% 27.5% 3.64
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 17.8% 13.8% 14.2% 0.97× 7.27
0-0 16.9% 13.8% 14.8% 0.93× 7.27
1-1 13.1% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
0-1 11.2% 11.5% 10.3% 1.11× 8.73
2-0 10.0% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.46
2-1 7.0% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.46
0-2 4.1% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
0-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.59
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.59
1-2 4.5% 1.7% 7.1% 0.24× 58.57
1-3 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.59
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
2-2 2.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.58
2-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.59
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 14.88× 58.59
3-0 3.6% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.57
3-1 2.6% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.58
3-2 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.59
3-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
3-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 14.88× 58.59
4-0 1.0% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.59
4-1 0.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.59
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.44× 58.59
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.44× 58.59
Any other score 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 65.0% 73.1% 1.37
Talleres (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 35.0% 26.9% 3.72
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1X) 77.1% 75.6% 72.2% 1.05× 1.32
Instituto (Córdoba) or Talleres (Córdoba) (12) 67.3% 69.6% 69.4% 1.00× 1.44
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw (X2) 55.6% 57.0% 58.3% 0.98× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw at HT 83.8% 84.2% 1.19
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw at HT 69.9% 66.2% 1.51
Instituto (Córdoba) or Talleres (Córdoba) at HT 46.3% 52.2% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 77.1% 83.9% 1.19
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 55.6% 62.5% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 79.4% 77.1% 1.30
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 65.8% 65.5% 1.53
Instituto (Córdoba) or Talleres (Córdoba) in 2nd half 54.8% 54.5% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 74.3% 72.0% 1.39
Neither half drawn 25.7% 28.0% 3.58
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (DNB) 65.9% 67.1% 60.1% 1.12× 1.49
Talleres (Córdoba) (DNB) 34.1% 32.9% 39.9% 0.82× 3.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score first 50.7% 54.1% 1.85
Talleres (Córdoba) to score first 32.4% 27.0% 3.71
No goal scored 16.9% 17.6% 5.67
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 66.0% 58.1% 59.5% 0.98× 1.72
Both teams to score 34.0% 41.9% 40.5% 1.03× 2.39
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 60.0% 47.3% 52.9% 0.89× 2.12
Both score & over 2.5 20.9% 27.7% 27.2% 1.02× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 13.1% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 6.1% 8.4% 6.8% 1.23× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 95.3% 91.7% 94.2% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 4.7% 8.3% 5.8% 1.42× 12.04
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 83.9% 75.1% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 16.1% 24.9% 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 76.1% 74.2% 1.35
Both score 2nd half only 14.6% 10.5% 9.50
Both score 1st half only 7.8% 6.7% 14.90
Both score in both halves 1.5% 4.8% 20.68
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 90.7% 91.2% 1.10
Both teams to score by HT 9.3% 8.8% 11.32
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 65.5% 66.6% 1.50
A goal in each half 34.5% 33.4% 2.99
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 45.9% 47.4% 39.1% 1.21× 2.11
2-3 goals 43.2% 42.1% 47.4% 0.89× 2.37
4-6 goals 10.6% 16.9% 13.3% 1.27× 5.92
7+ goals 0.3% 1.8% 0.5% 3.93× 55.42
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 49.6% 43.0% 42.4% 1.01× 2.32
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 34.8% 33.9% 35.9% 0.94× 2.95
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 12.2% 12.8% 15.3% 0.84× 7.80
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 3+ 3.4% 4.5% 6.7% 0.68× 22.24
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 33.4% 32.6% 31.9% 1.02× 3.06
Instituto (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 20.1% 23.3% 21.8% 1.07× 4.30
Instituto (Córdoba) to score 3+ 9.9% 10.3% 10.0% 1.04× 9.67
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 53.7% 47.8% 2.09
Instituto (Córdoba) leading at HT 30.1% 33.8% 2.96
Talleres (Córdoba) leading at HT 16.2% 15.8% 6.34
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: 2 55.6% 56.7% 1.77
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: X 25.7% 26.5% 3.77
Instituto (Córdoba) -1: 1 18.7% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:1) 55.6% 55.8% 58.3% 0.96× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 25.7% 27.0% 24.3% 1.11× 3.70
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:1) 18.7% 17.8% 17.5% 1.01× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:2) 81.3% 82.7% 82.5% 1.00× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 12.8% 11.0% 12.6% 0.87× 9.08
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:2) 5.9% 7.7% 5.0% 1.53× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:3) 94.1% 92.7% 95.0% 0.98× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.4% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 41.94
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.08
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:4) 98.5% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.34
Instituto (Córdoba) (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.44
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (1:0) 77.1% 78.5% 72.2% 1.09× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 16.3% 17.0% 18.7% 0.91× 5.87
Talleres (Córdoba) (1:0) 6.6% 6.9% 9.2% 0.75× 14.50
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) (2:0) 93.4% 94.0% 90.8% 1.03× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.2% 6.4% 6.3% 1.02× 15.51
Talleres (Córdoba) (2:0) 1.4% 2.3% 3.0% 0.76× 44.33
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.5% 46.0% 2.18
Halves equal 32.9% 30.5% 3.28
1st half highest scoring 25.6% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede 50.4% 53.1% 57.6% 0.92× 1.88
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet 49.6% 46.9% 42.4% 1.11× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 75.5% 76.8% 1.30
Instituto (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 24.5% 23.2% 4.31
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 91.4% 88.3% 1.13
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 82.9% 81.3% 1.23
Instituto (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 72.0% 71.5% 1.40
Instituto (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 59.8% 57.4% 1.74
Instituto (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 52.3% 53.0% 1.89
Instituto (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 47.7% 47.0% 2.13
Instituto (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 40.2% 42.6% 2.35
Instituto (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 28.0% 28.5% 3.51
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 17.1% 18.7% 5.36
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 8.6% 11.7% 8.52
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 97.4% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Instituto (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 90.1% 92.2% 90.0% 1.02× 1.08
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 70.0% 68.0% 68.3% 0.99× 1.47
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 66.6% 67.9% 68.1% 1.00× 1.47
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 33.4% 32.1% 31.9% 1.01× 3.12
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 30.0% 32.0% 31.7% 1.01× 3.12
Instituto (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 9.9% 7.8% 10.0% 0.78× 12.86
Instituto (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 2.6% 3.6% 2.9% 1.27× 27.45
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 91.8% 95.5% 1.05
Instituto (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 62.4% 64.6% 1.55
Instituto (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 37.6% 35.4% 2.82
Instituto (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 8.2% 4.5% 22.00
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 58.8% 56.7% 52.5% 1.08× 1.76
Talleres (Córdoba) (home no bet) 41.2% 43.3% 47.5% 0.91× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) even goals 55.6% 55.4% 55.7% 0.99× 1.80
Instituto (Córdoba) odd goals 44.4% 44.6% 44.3% 1.01× 2.24
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 47.2% 46.2% 2.17
HT 1-0 22.2% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 13.2% 11.1% 9.04
HT 1-1 6.3% 7.1% 14.12
HT 2-0 5.2% 7.1% 14.14
HT 0-2 1.9% 2.2% 44.79
HT 2-1 1.5% 2.2% 44.82
Any other HT score 1.5% 2.2% 44.82
HT 1-2 0.9% 2.2% 44.87
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.2% 44.93
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 24.9% 22.2% 4.50
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 24.6% 22.2% 4.50
Draw at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 18.2% 16.8% 5.95
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 11.1% 12.7% 7.90
Draw at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 10.9% 12.7% 7.91
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.4% 29.11
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.4% 29.13
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Instituto (Córdoba) at FT 1.3% 3.4% 29.23
Instituto (Córdoba) at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 1.0% 3.4% 29.25
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) to score last 50.7% 51.8% 1.93
Talleres (Córdoba) to score last 32.4% 32.8% 3.05
No goal scored 16.9% 12.4% 8.09
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 83.1% 87.3% 1.15
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 54.9% 50.6% 1.98
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 35.0% 34.6% 2.89
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 31.0% 29.4% 3.40
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 22.0% 19.6% 5.10
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 9.0% 6.6% 15.25
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 8.5% 6.5% 15.27
Instituto (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 6.7% 6.5% 15.36
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 1.8% 1.6% 64.17
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) most corners 76.0% 73.9% 1.35
Talleres (Córdoba) most corners 16.3% 20.6% 4.86
Corners level 7.8% 8.4% 11.91
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 82.1% 83.5% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.5% 78.6% 80.0% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 72.2% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 56.2% 59.2% 51.5% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 53.8% 53.1% 60.6% 0.88× 1.88
2-5 goals 53.1% 53.1% 60.0% 0.89× 1.88
2-4 goals 50.4% 53.1% 55.7% 0.95× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.2% 43.6% 47.4% 0.92× 2.29
3-6 goals 26.7% 30.2% 33.5% 0.90× 3.31
3-5 goals 25.9% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
3-4 goals 23.3% 24.5% 28.7% 0.85× 4.09
4-6 goals 10.6% 14.8% 13.3% 1.12× 6.74
4-5 goals 9.8% 8.8% 12.7% 0.69× 11.42
5-6 goals 3.4% 2.5% 4.9% 0.51× 39.42
7+ goals 0.3% 2.5% 0.5% 5.51× 39.57
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) never behind 48.1% 57.2% 1.75
Talleres (Córdoba) never behind 28.2% 30.0% 3.33
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.9% 50.8% 49.1% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.1% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 61.2% 57.9% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 38.8% 42.1% 2.38
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 56.4% 59.9% 1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half 43.6% 40.1% 2.50
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.0% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 96.4% 95.5% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 89.1% 87.7% 86.4% 1.02× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 83.1% 82.4% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 73.1% 72.5% 66.2% 1.10× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 54.1% 52.4% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Under 1.5 goals 45.9% 47.6% 39.1% 1.22× 2.10
Over 2.5 goals 26.9% 27.5% 33.8% 0.81× 3.64
Under 0.5 goals 16.9% 17.6% 14.8% 1.19× 5.67
Over 3.5 goals 10.9% 12.3% 13.6% 0.90× 8.12
Over 4.5 goals 3.6% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.19
Over 5.5 goals 1.0% 4.5% 1.0% 4.36× 22.24
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.7% 97.3% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 98.9% 97.3% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 96.1% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 87.0% 86.7% 82.9% 1.05× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.0% 62.1% 53.6% 1.16× 1.61
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 37.0% 37.9% 46.4% 0.82× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 13.0% 13.3% 17.1% 0.78× 7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 3.9% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.33
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.1% 2.7% 1.1% 2.55× 36.42
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.3% 2.7% 0.5% 5.95× 36.44
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 95.9% 96.5% 1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half 82.5% 86.4% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 52.8% 56.5% 1.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half 47.2% 43.5% 2.30
Over 1.5 in 1st half 17.5% 13.6% 7.37
Over 2.5 in 1st half 4.1% 3.5% 28.73
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 91.1% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 71.7% 77.9% 1.28
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 64.8% 62.0% 1.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 35.2% 38.0% 2.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 28.3% 22.1% 4.52
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 8.9% 10.9% 9.21
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 91.6% 90.1% 1.11
Instituto (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 82.5% 84.3% 1.19
Instituto (Córdoba) to score in both halves 17.5% 15.7% 6.36
Talleres (Córdoba) to score in both halves 8.4% 9.9% 10.08
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 34.0% 33.4% 40.5% 0.82× 3.00
Only Instituto (Córdoba) scores 32.7% 33.4% 27.8% 1.20× 3.00
Neither team scores 16.9% 16.1% 14.8% 1.09× 6.21
Only Talleres (Córdoba) scores 16.5% 16.1% 17.2% 0.94× 6.21
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 29.0% 25.0% 24.4% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 2 goals 27.2% 25.0% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 0 goals 16.9% 17.5% 14.8% 1.18× 5.73
Exactly 3 goals 16.1% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 7.2% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.14
Exactly 5 goals 2.6% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.63
6 or more goals 1.0% 4.4% 1.0% 4.28× 22.66
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.5% 39.8% 2.51
No goals in 2nd half 35.2% 39.6% 2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half 28.3% 29.6% 3.38
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to win both halves 96.6% 97.2% 1.03
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win both halves 89.6% 88.1% 1.13
Instituto (Córdoba) to win both halves 10.4% 11.9% 8.44
Talleres (Córdoba) to win both halves 3.4% 2.8% 35.32
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to win neither half 66.6% 67.8% 1.48
Instituto (Córdoba) to win either half 53.9% 54.8% 1.82
Instituto (Córdoba) to win neither half 46.1% 45.2% 2.21
Talleres (Córdoba) to win either half 33.4% 32.2% 3.10
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to win to nil 83.5% 83.0% 82.8% 1.00× 1.21
Instituto (Córdoba) not to win to nil 67.3% 69.6% 72.2% 0.96× 1.44
Instituto (Córdoba) to win to nil 32.7% 30.4% 27.8% 1.09× 3.29
Talleres (Córdoba) to win to nil 16.5% 17.0% 17.2% 0.99× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Instituto (Córdoba) by 1 25.7% 27.8% 24.3% 1.14× 3.59
Draw 32.7% 27.6% 30.6% 0.90× 3.62
Talleres (Córdoba) by 1 16.3% 16.9% 18.7% 0.91× 5.90
Instituto (Córdoba) by 2 12.8% 11.8% 12.6% 0.94× 8.46
Instituto (Córdoba) by 3+ 5.9% 7.2% 5.0% 1.44× 13.81
Talleres (Córdoba) by 2 5.2% 7.2% 6.3% 1.15× 13.81
Talleres (Córdoba) by 3+ 1.4% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 37.03
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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