Internazionale v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 8
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.44 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+1.28 – +0.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
63.5%
Draw
23.2%
Cagliari win
13.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.04–0.85 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.68–0.88 | 2-0 10% | 69% | 54% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 1.72 xGCagliari 0.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marko Arnautovic |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 12' |
Internazionale |
Marko Arnautovic | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Carlos Augusto |
| 21' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 24' |
 Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marko Arnautovic |
| 40' |
Cagliari |
Nadir Zortea | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 42' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 44' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 45' |
Internazionale |
Stefan de Vrij | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marko Arnautovic |
| 47' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tommaso Augello |
| 51' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 54' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 54' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 54' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.23 | From Corner | — | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 62' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 67' |
Cagliari |
Nadir Zortea | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Cagliari |
Zito | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | José Luis Palomino |
| 80' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 85' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Tommaso Augello |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Davide Frattesi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.47 | 1.02 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.77 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 1.04 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.68 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Nicola Zalewski DMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 1.15 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 62 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.38 | 0.68 |
| Marko Arnautovic FW | 61 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 1.12 |
| Joaquín Correa Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matteo Darmian Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Marcus Thuram Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Bastoni Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristjan Asllani Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadir Zortea DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.44 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| José Luis Palomino DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.37 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Tommaso Augello DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.37 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.81 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Gabriele Zappa DC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.43 | 0.74 |
| Antoine Makoumbou MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Florinel Coman AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Zito Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Razvan Marin Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Adam Obert Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |