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Internazionale v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 23 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–0
1.90 – 0.37 xG
Shots
17 – 8
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.46 – 0.09
Goals − xG
+0.09 – -0.37
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.10'15'30'45'60'75'90'Carlos Augusto 47' — goalMarcus Thuram 91' — goal
Internazionale 1.91 xGComo 0.37 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Ignace Van der Brempt 4' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marcus Thuram 8' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Nicolò Barella 8' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Henrikh Mkhitaryan 11' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 19' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 26' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 30' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Denzel Dumfries 32' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Open Play)Yann Bisseck 36' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Federico Dimarco 41' — Saved Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Marcus Thuram 46' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Carlos Augusto 47' — Goal (0.30 xG, From Corner)Yann Bisseck 54' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 57' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 60' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Direct Freekick)Nico Paz 61' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Lautaro Martínez 65' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Federico Dimarco 67' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Alessandro Bastoni 69' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Andrea Belotti 70' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Denzel Dumfries 71' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Denzel Dumfries 71' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 75' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 86' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Marcus Thuram 91' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Internazionale attacking right Como attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Como Ignace Van der Brempt 0.03 Open Play Missed Shot Alieu Fadera
8' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Yann Bisseck
8' Internazionale Nicolò Barella 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Thuram
11' Internazionale Henrikh Mkhitaryan 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
19' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yann Bisseck
26' Como Nico Paz 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sergi Roberto
30' Como Alieu Fadera 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Andrea Belotti
32' Internazionale Denzel Dumfries 0.35 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan
36' Internazionale Yann Bisseck 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
41' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Carlos Augusto
46' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolò Barella
47' Internazionale Carlos Augusto 0.30 From Corner Goal Hakan Calhanoglu
54' Internazionale Yann Bisseck 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
57' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.03 Open Play Saved Shot Nicolò Barella
60' Como Nico Paz 0.03 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
61' Como Nico Paz 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Edoardo Goldaniga
65' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nicolò Barella
67' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
69' Internazionale Alessandro Bastoni 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
70' Como Andrea Belotti 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Lucas Da Cunha
71' Internazionale Denzel Dumfries 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Yann Bisseck
71' Internazionale Denzel Dumfries 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
75' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
86' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.06 Open Play Missed Shot Alieu Fadera
91' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Piotr Zielinski

Players

Internazionale

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Denzel Dumfries MR 90 0 0 3 0 0.55 0.00 0.69
Marcus Thuram FW 90 1 0 3 1 0.34 0.04 0.48
Carlos Augusto DC 90 1 0 1 1 0.30 0.13 0.38
Lautaro Martínez FW 90 0 0 3 0 0.22 0.00 0.52
Alessandro Bastoni DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.38
Hakan Calhanoglu DMC 90 0 1 0 3 0.00 0.46 0.24
Yann Sommer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC 89 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.35 0.93
Federico Dimarco ML 80 0 0 2 0 0.16 0.00 0.51
Yann Bisseck DC 74 0 0 2 3 0.16 0.33 0.41
Nicolò Barella MC 74 0 0 1 3 0.04 0.25 0.54
Piotr Zielinski Sub 16 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Stefan de Vrij Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tajon Buchanan Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Davide Frattesi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mehdi Taremi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nico Paz ML 90 0 0 3 0 0.11 0.00 0.02
Ignace Van der Brempt DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Alberto Dossena DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Edoardo Goldaniga DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.00
Lucas Da Cunha MC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.05
José Reina GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alieu Fadera DL 88 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.09 0.14
Andrea Belotti FW 74 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.05 0.10
Marc-Oliver Kempf DC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Sergi Roberto MC 66 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Gabriel Strefezza MR 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Patrick Cutrone Sub 25 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.13
Ben Kone Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Federico Barba Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Luca Mazzitelli Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alberto Cerri Sub 2 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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