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Internazionale v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 27 October 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

4–4
2.83 – 2.36 xG
Shots
18 – 10
On target
9 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 8
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
2.01 – 0.04
Goals − xG
+1.17 – +1.64
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Piotr Zielinski 14' — goalDusan Vlahovic 19' — goalTimothy Weah 25' — goalHenrikh Mkhitaryan 34' — goalPiotr Zielinski 36' — goalDenzel Dumfries 52' — goalKenan Yildiz 70' — goalKenan Yildiz 81' — goal
Internazionale 2.83 xGJuventus 2.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Piotr Zielinski 14' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Dusan Vlahovic 19' — Goal (0.87 xG, Open Play)Denzel Dumfries 21' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Marcus Thuram 21' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Juan Cabal 23' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Timothy Weah 25' — Goal (0.85 xG, Open Play)Francisco Conceição 31' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Henrikh Mkhitaryan 34' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Piotr Zielinski 36' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Lautaro Martínez 41' — Blocked Shot (0.16 xG, Open Play)Timothy Weah 46' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Federico Dimarco 48' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Denzel Dumfries 52' — Goal (0.11 xG, From Corner)Francisco Conceição 59' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa 60' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Federico Dimarco 64' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Nicolò Barella 66' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Stefan de Vrij 66' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Stefan de Vrij 66' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Nicolò Barella 68' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 69' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Stefan de Vrij 69' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Kenan Yildiz 70' — Goal (0.07 xG, Open Play)Marcus Thuram 72' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 75' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Kenan Yildiz 78' — Missed Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Kenan Yildiz 81' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Davide Frattesi 90' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)
Internazionale attacking right Juventus attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
14' Internazionale Piotr Zielinski 0.76 Right Foot Goal
19' Juventus Dusan Vlahovic 0.87 Open Play Left Foot Goal Weston McKennie
21' Internazionale Denzel Dumfries 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot
21' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.09 From Corner Saved Shot Federico Dimarco
23' Juventus Juan Cabal 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
25' Juventus Timothy Weah 0.85 Open Play Right Foot Goal Francisco Conceição
31' Juventus Francisco Conceição 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Andrea Cambiaso
34' Internazionale Henrikh Mkhitaryan 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Goal Marcus Thuram
36' Internazionale Piotr Zielinski 0.76 Right Foot Goal
41' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.16 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Marcus Thuram
46' Juventus Timothy Weah 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Andrea Cambiaso
48' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Lautaro Martínez
52' Internazionale Denzel Dumfries 0.11 From Corner Right Foot Goal
59' Juventus Francisco Conceição 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Andrea Cambiaso
60' Juventus Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Francisco Conceição
64' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Nicolò Barella
66' Internazionale Nicolò Barella 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
66' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.03 From Corner Blocked Shot
66' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.09 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
68' Internazionale Nicolò Barella 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan
69' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Federico Dimarco
69' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.01 From Corner Blocked Shot Federico Dimarco
70' Juventus Kenan Yildiz 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Goal Weston McKennie
72' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Yann Bisseck
75' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marcus Thuram
78' Juventus Kenan Yildiz 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nicolò Savona
81' Juventus Kenan Yildiz 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Goal
90' Internazionale Davide Frattesi 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Lautaro Martínez

Players

Internazionale

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lautaro Martínez FW 90 0 0 3 2 0.38 0.18 0.61
Denzel Dumfries DMR 90 1 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.21
Nicolò Barella MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.02 0.22
Stefan de Vrij DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.13 0.00 0.21
Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC 90 1 0 1 1 0.09 0.13 0.22
Yann Sommer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Alessandro Bastoni DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Marcus Thuram FW 89 0 1 2 3 0.21 0.39 0.51
Federico Dimarco DML 79 0 0 2 3 0.08 0.19 0.36
Piotr Zielinski MC 65 2 0 2 0 1.52 0.00 0.09
Benjamin Pavard DC 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Davide Frattesi Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Yann Bisseck Sub 25 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.12
Matteo Darmian Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mehdi Taremi Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Juventus

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Francisco Conceição AMR 90 0 1 2 2 0.08 0.89 1.87
Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.90
Juan Cabal DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 1.31
Michele Di Gregorio GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Manuel Locatelli DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.27
Andrea Cambiaso DR 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.09 1.88
Weston McKennie DMC 85 0 2 0 2 0.00 0.94 0.99
Dusan Vlahovic FW 79 1 0 1 0 0.87 0.00 1.79
Danilo DC 79 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 1.80
Timothy Weah AML 64 1 0 2 0 0.86 0.00 1.76
Nicolo Fagioli AMC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.87
Kenan Yildiz Sub 26 2 0 3 0 0.50 0.00 0.50
Nicolò Savona Sub 26 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.40 0.46
Samuel Mbangula Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Federico Gatti Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kephren Thuram Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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