Internazionale v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 8
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 0.05
Goals − xG
+0.26 – -0.55
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
65.1%
Draw
20.1%
Lazio win
14.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale are finishing sharply above their chances — 7.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWDWWDDWW last 10
scored 28
from 20.5 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.29–1.02 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.31–1.13 | 2-1 10% | 67% | 61% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 1.74 xGLazio 0.55 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 2' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.39 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 17' |
 Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 24' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 28' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 33' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.01 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 57' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 61' |
Internazionale |
Ange-Yoan Bonny | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 73' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 76' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Pedro |
| 78' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Piotr Zielinski |
| 82' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Luca Pellegrini | 0.31 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.49 | 1.27 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 1.03 | 0.74 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 73 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Carlos Augusto Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Piotr Zielinski Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Marcus Thuram Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.05 | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Toma Basic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Adam Marusic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.37 |
| Pedro Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| Matías Vecino Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Luca Pellegrini Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |