Internazionale v Sassuolo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
20 – 10
On target
6 – 5
Shots in box
16 – 5
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.12 – +0.15
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Internazionale win
79.4%
Draw
12.5%
Sassuolo win
8.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.99–0.89 | 2-0 9% | 74% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Internazionale 3.12 xGSassuolo 0.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Internazionale attacking right
Sassuolo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 8' |
 Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 10' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Petar Sucic |
| 18' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 21' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 24' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 28' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 39' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Denzel Dumfries |
| 43' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Denzel Dumfries | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Petar Sucic |
| 61' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Josh Doig |
| 66' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 73' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 75' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 75' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 79' |
Internazionale |
Luis Henrique | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Davide Frattesi |
| 80' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 80' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
| 80' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.00 | From Corner | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 81' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 83' |
Sassuolo |
Walid Cheddira | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Domenico Berardi |
| 85' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Davide Frattesi |
| 92' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicholas Pierini |
| 94' |
Sassuolo |
Walid Cheddira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Volpato |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.77 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.75 | 0.57 | 1.54 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 1.14 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 1.29 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.60 | 1.75 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Denzel Dumfries DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.39 | 0.65 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.67 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Lautaro Martínez Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.54 | 1.14 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1.01 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.47 | 1.01 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.41 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.35 | 0.46 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.71 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Woyo Coulibaly DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Nicholas Pierini Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |