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Juve Stabia v Sudtirol — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Juve Stabia win
46.6%
model 46.7%
Draw
31.0%
model 30.6%
Sudtirol win
22.4%
model 22.7%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,799 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 14.3%
  2. 1-0 12.3%
  3. 0-0 11.6%
  4. 2-0 9.8%
  5. 2-1 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.540.5% Under 2.559.5%
BTTS yes46.5% BTTS no53.5%
Juve Stabia 1+75.3% Juve Stabia 2+40.7%
Sudtirol 1+59.6% Sudtirol 2+23.0%

Expected goals 1.40 – 0.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
49/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Juve Stabia carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1414.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Juve Stabia have an estimated 46.6% win probability, against 31.0% for the draw and 22.4% for Sudtirol. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.40 for Juve Stabia and 0.91 for Sudtirol.

Why Juve Stabia

Juve Stabia carry the stronger rating, 1504 Elo against 1414.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 31.0%. A combined 2.30 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Sudtirol can win

Nothing in the data singles out Sudtirol.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Juve Stabia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Sudtirol, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Juve Stabia: 57% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Sudtirol: 47% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Juve Stabia are the model's most likely outcome at 46.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.3%. Confidence 49/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.29–0.82 1-1 14% 35% 42%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia to win 46.0% 47.4% 42.7% 1.11× 2.11
Draw 32.1% 30.4% 32.0% 0.95× 3.29
Sudtirol to win 21.9% 24.4% 25.4% 0.96× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia & not both score 30.4% 29.7% 24.0% 1.24× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 18.3% 17.9% 23.0% 0.78× 5.58
Juve Stabia & both teams score 15.6% 17.9% 18.8% 0.95× 5.59
Draw & not both score 13.8% 13.3% 9.1% 1.45× 7.54
Sudtirol & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 13.3% 1.00× 7.54
Sudtirol & both teams score 8.2% 8.4% 12.3% 0.68× 11.92
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia & under 3.5 36.8% 34.9% 32.0% 1.09× 2.86
Juve Stabia & over 1.5 32.0% 30.8% 31.7% 0.97× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 28.3% 26.0% 23.8% 1.10× 3.84
Draw & under 3.5 28.3% 26.0% 23.8% 1.10× 3.84
Juve Stabia & under 2.5 24.2% 21.6% 18.5% 1.17× 4.62
Juve Stabia & over 2.5 21.9% 21.6% 24.3% 0.89× 4.62
Sudtirol & under 3.5 18.6% 18.0% 19.9% 0.90× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.3% 18.0% 23.0% 0.78× 5.56
Juve Stabia & under 1.5 14.0% 12.9% 11.1% 1.16× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 13.8% 12.9% 9.1% 1.41× 7.77
Sudtirol & over 1.5 13.6% 12.9% 18.8% 0.69× 7.77
Sudtirol & under 2.5 12.3% 12.9% 10.5% 1.22× 7.77
Juve Stabia & over 3.5 9.2% 7.9% 10.8% 0.73× 12.70
Sudtirol & over 2.5 9.6% 7.9% 15.0% 0.52× 12.70
Sudtirol & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 6.8% 1.17× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 3.8% 4.8% 8.4% 0.57× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.8% 4.8% 8.4% 0.57× 20.93
Sudtirol & over 3.5 3.3% 4.8% 5.6% 0.85× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia (1UP) 58.6% 58.2% 1.72
Sudtirol (1UP) 36.7% 34.0% 2.95
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia (2UP) 46.0% 49.6% 2.02
Sudtirol (2UP) 21.9% 23.4% 4.28
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 42.1% 41.2% 2.43
Juve Stabia to win 2nd half 36.7% 36.3% 2.76
Sudtirol to win 2nd half 21.2% 22.9% 4.36
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol (+2.5) 92.1% 92.1% 93.2% 0.99× 1.09
Juve Stabia (+0.5) 78.1% 78.5% 74.6% 1.05× 1.28
Sudtirol (+1.5) 77.8% 78.5% 80.5% 0.97× 1.28
Sudtirol (+0.5) 54.0% 52.4% 57.3% 0.91× 1.91
Juve Stabia (-0.5) 46.0% 47.6% 42.7% 1.12× 2.10
Juve Stabia (-1.5) 22.2% 21.5% 19.5% 1.10× 4.64
Sudtirol (-0.5) 21.9% 21.5% 25.4% 0.85× 4.64
Juve Stabia (-2.5) 7.9% 7.9% 6.8% 1.17× 12.64
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol to concede 72.6% 76.5% 77.7% 0.98× 1.31
Sudtirol clean sheet 27.4% 23.5% 22.3% 1.05× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol clean sheet in 1st half 57.4% 57.9% 1.73
Sudtirol to concede in 1st half 42.6% 42.1% 2.37
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol under 6.5 corners 89.5% 85.2% 1.17
Sudtirol under 5.5 corners 81.5% 81.5% 1.23
Sudtirol under 4.5 corners 69.4% 67.5% 1.48
Sudtirol over 2.5 corners 65.6% 67.5% 1.48
Sudtirol under 3.5 corners 53.2% 53.1% 1.88
Sudtirol over 3.5 corners 46.8% 46.9% 2.13
Sudtirol under 2.5 corners 34.4% 32.5% 3.08
Sudtirol over 4.5 corners 30.6% 32.5% 3.08
Sudtirol over 5.5 corners 18.5% 18.6% 5.39
Sudtirol over 6.5 corners 10.5% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol under 3.5 goals 99.0% 97.6% 98.2% 0.99× 1.03
Sudtirol under 2.5 goals 95.0% 97.5% 90.9% 1.07× 1.03
Sudtirol under 1.5 goals 80.3% 81.4% 69.3% 1.17× 1.23
Sudtirol over 0.5 goals 55.8% 59.5% 67.0% 0.89× 1.68
Sudtirol under 0.5 goals 44.2% 40.5% 33.0% 1.22× 2.47
Sudtirol over 1.5 goals 19.7% 18.6% 30.7% 0.61× 5.38
Sudtirol over 2.5 goals 5.0% 2.5% 9.1% 0.27× 40.71
Sudtirol over 3.5 goals 1.0% 2.4% 1.8% 1.39× 40.93
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol under 1.5 in 1st half 95.7% 95.6% 1.05
Sudtirol under 0.5 in 1st half 72.2% 68.5% 1.46
Sudtirol over 0.5 in 1st half 27.8% 31.5% 3.18
Sudtirol over 1.5 in 1st half 4.3% 4.4% 22.87
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia (away no bet) 58.9% 57.6% 57.1% 1.01× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 41.1% 42.4% 42.9% 0.99× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol even goals 59.8% 56.9% 55.6% 1.02× 1.76
Sudtirol odd goals 40.2% 43.1% 44.4% 0.97× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 92.3% 92.4% 1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals 7.7% 7.6% 13.24
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 50.0% 50.3% 1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals 50.0% 49.7% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 43.6% 38.4% 2.61
Juve Stabia to score 2+ in a row 31.7% 28.7% 3.48
Sudtirol to score 2+ in a row 14.7% 12.2% 8.22
Either team to score 3+ in a row 13.3% 12.1% 8.25
Juve Stabia to score 3+ in a row 10.4% 12.0% 8.30
Sudtirol to score 3+ in a row 2.9% 2.6% 38.61
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia corners (+3.5) 92.3% 89.6% 1.12
Juve Stabia corners (+2.5) 87.1% 84.5% 1.18
Juve Stabia corners (+1.5) 79.7% 74.9% 1.34
Sudtirol corners (+3.5) 74.6% 70.7% 1.41
Sudtirol corners (+2.5) 64.6% 61.9% 1.62
Sudtirol corners (+1.5) 53.1% 52.5% 1.91
Juve Stabia corners (-1.5) 46.9% 47.5% 2.10
Juve Stabia corners (-2.5) 35.4% 38.1% 2.63
Juve Stabia corners (-3.5) 25.4% 29.3% 3.42
Sudtirol corners (-1.5) 20.3% 25.1% 3.98
Sudtirol corners (-2.5) 12.9% 15.5% 6.45
Sudtirol corners (-3.5) 7.7% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 52.9% 45.2% 2.21
9-11 corners 27.8% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 19.2% 22.7% 4.41
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 86.7% 83.0% 1.21
Under 11.5 corners 80.8% 80.8% 1.24
Under 10.5 corners 73.1% 72.7% 1.38
Under 9.5 corners 63.7% 63.4% 1.58
Over 7.5 corners 58.6% 57.7% 1.73
Under 8.5 corners 52.9% 53.3% 1.88
Over 8.5 corners 47.1% 46.7% 2.14
Under 7.5 corners 41.4% 42.3% 2.37
Over 9.5 corners 36.3% 36.6% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 26.9% 27.3% 3.66
Over 11.5 corners 19.2% 19.2% 5.20
Over 12.5 corners 13.3% 17.0% 5.88
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 14.5% 11.5% 14.8% 0.78× 8.73
0-0 13.8% 11.5% 9.1% 1.25× 8.73
1-0 14.0% 11.5% 11.1% 1.03× 8.73
2-0 10.1% 11.4% 7.5% 1.52× 8.74
0-1 8.2% 7.4% 6.8% 1.10× 13.47
2-1 8.3% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.47
1-2 5.2% 7.4% 7.4% 1.01× 13.47
0-2 4.0% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.50
0-3 1.1% 1.7% 2.3% 0.76× 58.52
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.28× 58.52
1-3 1.4% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.52
1-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.83× 58.52
2-2 3.4% 1.7% 7.4% 0.23× 58.50
2-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.14× 58.52
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 13.65× 58.52
3-0 4.4% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.50
3-1 3.6% 1.7% 4.4% 0.39× 58.50
3-2 1.5% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.52
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.52× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.55× 58.52
4-0 1.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.52× 58.52
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.28× 58.52
4-2 0.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.71× 58.52
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 6.83× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.1% 13.65× 58.52
Any other score 1.2% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia leading at HT (DNB) 65.9% 74.0% 1.35
Sudtirol leading at HT (DNB) 34.1% 26.0% 3.84
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia or draw (1X) 78.1% 75.6% 74.6% 1.01× 1.32
Juve Stabia or Sudtirol (12) 67.9% 69.6% 68.0% 1.02× 1.44
Sudtirol or draw (X2) 54.0% 52.6% 57.3% 0.92× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia or draw at HT 82.9% 84.4% 1.19
Sudtirol or draw at HT 66.9% 66.3% 1.51
Juve Stabia or Sudtirol at HT 50.2% 47.5% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia or draw (1UP) 78.1% 84.1% 1.19
Sudtirol or draw (1UP) 54.0% 59.4% 1.69
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia or draw in 2nd half 78.8% 77.1% 1.30
Sudtirol or draw in 2nd half 63.3% 63.7% 1.57
Juve Stabia or Sudtirol in 2nd half 58.0% 58.8% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 69.2% 69.8% 1.43
Neither half drawn 30.8% 30.2% 3.31
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia (DNB) 67.8% 67.2% 62.7% 1.07× 1.49
Sudtirol (DNB) 32.2% 32.8% 37.3% 0.88× 3.05
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia to score first 52.8% 53.9% 1.86
Sudtirol to score first 33.3% 27.0% 3.70
No goal scored 13.8% 10.5% 9.53
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 57.9% 54.9% 46.2% 1.19× 1.82
Both teams to score 42.1% 45.2% 53.8% 0.84× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 50.2% 47.0% 37.9% 1.24× 2.13
Both score & over 2.5 27.7% 33.6% 39.2% 0.86× 2.98
Both score & under 2.5 14.5% 12.3% 14.8% 0.83× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.6% 8.4% 8.4% 1.00× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.7% 89.1% 86.0% 1.04× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.3% 10.9% 14.0% 0.78× 9.18
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.2% 75.9% 1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.8% 24.1% 4.14
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 69.5% 63.0% 1.59
Both score 2nd half only 18.4% 15.8% 6.32
Both score 1st half only 9.8% 6.8% 14.66
Both score in both halves 2.4% 4.8% 20.63
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.8% 85.9% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 12.2% 14.1% 7.11
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 57.8% 57.5% 1.74
A goal in each half 42.2% 42.5% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.6% 47.4% 48.8% 0.97× 2.11
0-1 goals 36.1% 35.0% 26.8% 1.31× 2.85
4-6 goals 15.7% 20.2% 23.3% 0.87× 4.96
7+ goals 0.6% 1.8% 1.4% 1.32× 55.20
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol to score exactly 0 44.2% 37.1% 33.0% 1.12× 2.70
Sudtirol to score exactly 1 36.1% 36.0% 36.4% 0.99× 2.78
Sudtirol to score exactly 2 14.7% 12.8% 21.7% 0.59× 7.80
Sudtirol to score 3+ 5.0% 4.6% 9.1% 0.50× 21.96
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia to score exactly 1 35.5% 35.6% 35.9% 0.99× 2.81
Juve Stabia to score exactly 0 27.4% 26.5% 22.3% 1.19× 3.77
Juve Stabia to score exactly 2 22.9% 23.3% 26.0% 0.89× 4.30
Juve Stabia to score 3+ 14.1% 14.4% 16.0% 0.90× 6.97
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 49.8% 52.5% 1.90
Juve Stabia leading at HT 33.1% 33.7% 2.97
Sudtirol leading at HT 17.1% 15.6% 6.40
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia -1: 2 54.0% 52.1% 1.92
Juve Stabia -1: X 23.9% 23.6% 4.24
Juve Stabia -1: 1 22.2% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol (0:1) 54.0% 51.2% 57.3% 0.89× 1.95
Draw (0:1) 23.9% 24.3% 23.3% 1.04× 4.12
Juve Stabia (0:1) 22.2% 24.3% 19.5% 1.24× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol (0:2) 77.8% 79.5% 80.5% 0.99× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.2% 11.0% 12.9% 0.85× 9.10
Juve Stabia (0:2) 7.9% 7.7% 6.8% 1.14× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol (0:3) 92.1% 92.6% 93.2% 0.99× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.7% 5.8% 4.6% 1.25× 17.21
Juve Stabia (0:3) 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 1.05× 42.11
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol (0:4) 97.7% 98.1% 97.7% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 1.4% 0.87× 83.41
Juve Stabia (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.20× 83.55
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia (1:0) 78.1% 78.5% 74.6% 1.05× 1.27
Draw (1:0) 14.5% 12.8% 15.6% 0.82× 7.80
Sudtirol (1:0) 7.4% 6.9% 9.9% 0.70× 14.47
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia (2:0) 92.6% 94.0% 90.1% 1.04× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 5.7% 6.4% 6.5% 0.99× 15.54
Sudtirol (2:0) 1.7% 2.3% 3.5% 0.64× 44.40
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 42.7% 47.5% 2.11
Halves equal 31.8% 29.7% 3.37
1st half highest scoring 25.5% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia to concede 55.8% 60.9% 67.0% 0.91× 1.64
Juve Stabia clean sheet 44.2% 39.1% 33.0% 1.18× 2.56
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia clean sheet in 1st half 72.2% 68.1% 1.47
Juve Stabia to concede in 1st half 27.8% 31.9% 3.14
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia over 2.5 corners 81.4% 80.9% 1.24
Juve Stabia under 6.5 corners 74.5% 71.9% 1.39
Juve Stabia over 3.5 corners 67.0% 66.7% 1.50
Juve Stabia under 5.5 corners 62.7% 62.3% 1.61
Juve Stabia over 4.5 corners 51.6% 52.8% 1.90
Juve Stabia under 4.5 corners 48.4% 47.2% 2.12
Juve Stabia over 5.5 corners 37.3% 37.7% 2.65
Juve Stabia under 3.5 corners 33.0% 33.3% 3.00
Juve Stabia over 6.5 corners 25.5% 28.1% 3.56
Juve Stabia under 2.5 corners 18.6% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia under 3.5 goals 95.8% 96.4% 95.9% 1.01× 1.04
Juve Stabia under 2.5 goals 85.9% 87.2% 84.0% 1.04× 1.15
Juve Stabia over 0.5 goals 72.6% 74.2% 77.7% 0.95× 1.35
Juve Stabia under 1.5 goals 62.9% 63.4% 58.1% 1.09× 1.58
Juve Stabia over 1.5 goals 37.1% 36.6% 41.9% 0.87× 2.74
Juve Stabia under 0.5 goals 27.4% 25.8% 22.3% 1.16× 3.88
Juve Stabia over 2.5 goals 14.1% 12.8% 16.0% 0.80× 7.83
Juve Stabia over 3.5 goals 4.2% 3.7% 4.1% 0.88× 27.39
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia under 1.5 in 1st half 89.2% 90.0% 1.11
Juve Stabia under 0.5 in 1st half 57.4% 57.5% 1.74
Juve Stabia over 0.5 in 1st half 42.6% 42.5% 2.35
Juve Stabia over 1.5 in 1st half 10.8% 10.0% 10.00
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 59.5% 56.7% 55.8% 1.02× 1.76
Sudtirol (home no bet) 40.5% 43.3% 44.2% 0.98× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia even goals 53.8% 50.6% 51.1% 0.99× 1.98
Juve Stabia odd goals 46.2% 49.4% 48.9% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 41.7% 41.5% 2.41
HT 1-0 22.7% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 13.2% 11.0% 9.10
HT 1-1 7.8% 7.1% 14.17
HT 2-0 6.4% 7.0% 14.19
HT 0-2 2.2% 2.3% 43.90
Any other HT score 2.3% 2.3% 43.89
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.3% 43.91
HT 1-2 1.2% 2.3% 43.98
HT 2-2 0.3% 2.3% 44.05
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia at HT / Juve Stabia at FT 26.9% 26.6% 3.76
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 22.7% 21.8% 4.60
Draw at HT / Juve Stabia at FT 17.4% 16.8% 5.94
Sudtirol at HT / Sudtirol at FT 10.9% 12.6% 7.91
Draw at HT / Sudtirol at FT 9.7% 6.1% 16.51
Juve Stabia at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.65
Sudtirol at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% 28.82
Sudtirol at HT / Juve Stabia at FT 1.8% 3.5% 28.92
Juve Stabia at HT / Sudtirol at FT 1.2% 3.5% 28.94
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia to score last 53.0% 51.9% 1.93
Sudtirol to score last 33.2% 33.2% 3.02
No goal scored 13.8% 9.9% 10.12
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 86.2% 90.3% 1.11
Juve Stabia to lead by 1 at any time 58.6% 55.2% 1.81
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 37.0% 34.8% 2.88
Sudtirol to lead by 1 at any time 36.7% 34.8% 2.88
Juve Stabia to lead by 2 at any time 26.5% 25.3% 3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 11.6% 10.4% 9.63
Sudtirol to lead by 2 at any time 10.6% 10.4% 9.65
Juve Stabia to lead by 3 at any time 9.2% 6.6% 15.14
Sudtirol to lead by 3 at any time 2.3% 1.6% 64.21
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia most corners 58.8% 55.4% 1.80
Sudtirol most corners 29.9% 31.0% 3.22
Corners level 11.3% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.1% 83.5% 87.2% 0.96× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.9% 78.6% 82.1% 0.96× 1.27
1-3 goals 69.9% 69.0% 66.5% 1.04× 1.45
2-6 goals 63.3% 63.4% 72.0% 0.88× 1.58
2-5 goals 61.9% 63.4% 69.6% 0.91× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.6% 59.2% 64.5% 0.92× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.9% 53.2% 43.6% 1.22× 1.88
2-3 goals 47.6% 48.7% 48.8% 1.00× 2.06
3-6 goals 34.7% 35.4% 46.2% 0.77× 2.83
3-5 goals 33.2% 35.4% 43.8% 0.81× 2.83
3-4 goals 29.0% 30.2% 38.7% 0.78× 3.31
4-6 goals 15.7% 18.6% 23.3% 0.80× 5.37
4-5 goals 14.2% 14.9% 20.9% 0.71× 6.72
5-6 goals 5.7% 8.7% 7.6% 1.14× 11.45
7+ goals 0.6% 2.5% 1.4% 1.84× 39.49
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Juve Stabia never behind 49.5% 56.7% 1.76
Sudtirol never behind 27.6% 29.9% 3.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 45.9% 50.8% 46.7% 1.09× 1.97
Even number of goals 54.1% 49.2% 53.3% 0.92× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 59.1% 57.7% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 40.9% 42.3% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 55.4% 59.1% 1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half 44.6% 40.9% 2.44
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.9% 95.5% 96.2% 0.99× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 91.1% 1.01× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 86.2% 87.6% 90.9% 0.96× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 83.7% 82.4% 75.5% 1.09× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 64.7% 61.7% 52.6% 1.17× 1.62
Over 1.5 goals 63.9% 61.7% 73.2% 0.84× 1.62
Under 1.5 goals 36.1% 38.3% 26.8% 1.43× 2.61
Over 2.5 goals 35.3% 38.3% 47.4% 0.81× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 16.3% 17.6% 24.5% 0.72× 5.68
Under 0.5 goals 13.8% 12.4% 9.1% 1.35× 8.09
Over 4.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 8.9% 0.87× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 2.1% 4.5% 3.8% 1.20× 22.26
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.4% 97.3% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.8% 97.2% 96.0% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 93.0% 92.5% 89.5% 1.03× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 79.9% 75.9% 68.2% 1.11× 1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 50.5% 51.8% 36.1% 1.43× 1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 49.5% 48.2% 63.9% 0.75× 2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 20.1% 24.1% 31.8% 0.76× 4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 7.0% 7.5% 10.5% 0.72× 13.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.2% 2.8% 4.0% 0.70× 36.36
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.6% 2.7% 1.4% 1.95× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 94.0% 92.9% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 77.6% 78.9% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 58.3% 63.7% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 41.7% 36.3% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 22.4% 21.1% 4.73
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.0% 7.1% 14.09
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 87.4% 85.3% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 70.1% 77.6% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 64.7% 62.3% 1.60
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 35.3% 37.7% 2.66
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 29.9% 22.4% 4.47
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 12.6% 14.7% 6.79
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol not to score in both halves 89.2% 86.2% 1.16
Juve Stabia not to score in both halves 77.8% 78.3% 1.28
Juve Stabia to score in both halves 22.2% 21.7% 4.60
Sudtirol to score in both halves 10.8% 13.8% 7.23
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 42.1% 46.6% 53.8% 0.87× 2.15
Only Juve Stabia scores 30.4% 33.3% 24.0% 1.39× 3.00
Neither team scores 13.8% 11.0% 9.1% 1.20× 9.13
Only Sudtirol scores 13.6% 10.9% 13.3% 0.83× 9.13
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 28.7% 25.0% 25.9% 0.96× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 22.2% 22.6% 17.8% 1.27× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 19.0% 17.4% 23.0% 0.76× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 13.8% 12.1% 9.1% 1.32× 8.28
Exactly 4 goals 10.0% 12.1% 15.8% 0.76× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 4.2% 4.4% 5.3% 0.84× 22.67
6 or more goals 2.1% 4.4% 3.8% 1.17× 22.71
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 35.3% 39.8% 2.51
1 goal in 2nd half 34.8% 33.7% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 29.9% 29.9% 3.34
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol not to win both halves 96.2% 97.2% 1.03
Juve Stabia not to win both halves 87.5% 88.0% 1.14
Juve Stabia to win both halves 12.5% 12.0% 8.34
Sudtirol to win both halves 3.8% 2.8% 35.45
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol to win neither half 65.5% 67.8% 1.48
Juve Stabia to win either half 57.4% 59.4% 1.68
Juve Stabia to win neither half 42.6% 40.6% 2.47
Sudtirol to win either half 34.5% 32.2% 3.10
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sudtirol not to win to nil 86.4% 88.2% 86.7% 1.02× 1.13
Juve Stabia not to win to nil 69.6% 69.7% 76.0% 0.92× 1.44
Juve Stabia to win to nil 30.4% 30.3% 24.0% 1.26× 3.30
Sudtirol to win to nil 13.6% 11.8% 13.3% 0.89× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 32.1% 27.6% 32.0% 0.86× 3.62
Juve Stabia by 1 23.9% 24.2% 23.3% 1.04× 4.14
Sudtirol by 1 14.5% 11.8% 15.6% 0.76× 8.47
Juve Stabia by 2 14.2% 11.8% 12.9% 0.92× 8.47
Juve Stabia by 3+ 7.9% 7.2% 6.8% 1.07× 13.80
Sudtirol by 2 5.7% 7.2% 6.5% 1.11× 13.81
Sudtirol by 3+ 1.7% 2.7% 3.5% 0.77× 37.08
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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