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Kristiansund BK v Tromsø IL — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000034 · 2627

FIFA:2000000034 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Kristiansund BK win
37.8%
Draw
27.7%
Tromsø IL win
34.5%

Raw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.1%
  2. 1-0 11.2%
  3. 0-1 10.6%
  4. 0-0 9.1%
  5. 2-1 8.0%

Goals

Over 2.542.8% Under 2.557.2%
BTTS yes48.6% BTTS no51.4%
Kristiansund BK 1+70.8% Kristiansund BK 2+34.9%
Tromsø IL 1+68.7% Tromsø IL 2+32.4%

Expected goals 1.23 – 1.16. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
0/100
Data quality
0/100
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Kristiansund BK.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • Tromsø IL have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Kristiansund BK have an estimated 37.8% win probability, against 34.5% for Tromsø IL and 27.7% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.23 for Kristiansund BK and 1.16 for Tromsø IL.

Why Kristiansund BK

Nothing in the data singles out Kristiansund BK.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.7%. A combined 2.39 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.23 to 1.16.

Why Tromsø IL can win

Tromsø IL carry the stronger rating, 1500 Elo against 1412. Away from home Tromsø IL average 1.35 xG a match. They have had 14 days' rest to Kristiansund BK's 7.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Kristiansund BK, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Tromsø IL, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Kristiansund BK: 46% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Tromsø IL: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Kristiansund BK are the model's most likely outcome at 37.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.1%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.23–1.16 0% 0% 0%
deep 1.18–1.39 1-1 13% 47% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL to win 41.2% 43.0% 31.3% 1.37× 2.33
Kristiansund BK to win 31.1% 30.4% 46.0% 0.66× 3.29
Draw 27.7% 27.9% 22.8% 1.22× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL & not both score 22.6% 21.9% 16.1% 1.36× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.3% 17.9% 16.4% 1.09× 5.58
Tromsø IL & both teams score 18.7% 17.9% 15.4% 1.16× 5.58
Kristiansund BK & not both score 16.6% 17.9% 23.9% 0.75× 5.58
Kristiansund BK & both teams score 14.5% 13.3% 22.2% 0.60× 7.55
Draw & not both score 8.3% 8.4% 6.6% 1.27× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL & over 1.5 31.2% 30.9% 25.2% 1.22× 3.24
Tromsø IL & under 3.5 29.7% 26.0% 20.5% 1.27× 3.84
Tromsø IL & over 2.5 23.7% 21.6% 19.5% 1.11× 4.62
Kristiansund BK & over 1.5 22.7% 21.6% 36.1% 0.60× 4.62
Kristiansund BK & under 3.5 23.2% 21.6% 29.1% 0.74× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 21.5% 21.6% 16.5% 1.31× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 21.5% 21.6% 16.5% 1.31× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 19.3% 18.0% 16.4% 1.10× 5.56
Tromsø IL & under 2.5 17.5% 18.0% 12.0% 1.50× 5.56
Kristiansund BK & over 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 28.5% 0.63× 5.56
Kristiansund BK & under 2.5 13.7% 12.9% 17.6% 0.73× 7.77
Tromsø IL & over 3.5 11.6% 12.9% 11.0% 1.17× 7.78
Tromsø IL & under 1.5 10.1% 12.9% 6.3% 2.04× 7.78
Kristiansund BK & under 1.5 8.4% 7.9% 10.1% 0.78× 12.69
Kristiansund BK & over 3.5 7.9% 7.9% 17.0% 0.46× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 8.3% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 6.2% 7.9% 6.5% 1.22× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 6.2% 7.9% 6.5% 1.22× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (1UP) 56.9% 58.0% 49.1% 1.18× 1.73
Kristiansund BK (1UP) 48.1% 43.0% 58.4% 0.74× 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (2UP) 41.2% 47.5% 33.7% 1.41× 2.11
Kristiansund BK (2UP) 31.1% 30.9% 47.6% 0.65× 3.23
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 36.9% 36.1% 30.9% 1.17× 2.77
Tromsø IL to win 2nd half 36.4% 36.1% 26.8% 1.35× 2.77
Kristiansund BK to win 2nd half 26.7% 26.2% 42.5% 0.62× 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (+2.5) 95.9% 96.3% 89.9% 1.07× 1.04
Tromsø IL (+1.5) 87.0% 88.5% 74.8% 1.18× 1.13
Tromsø IL (+0.5) 68.9% 68.7% 54.0% 1.27× 1.46
Kristiansund BK (+0.5) 58.8% 57.0% 68.7% 0.83× 1.75
Tromsø IL (-0.5) 41.2% 43.0% 31.3% 1.37× 2.33
Kristiansund BK (-0.5) 31.1% 31.3% 46.0% 0.68× 3.20
Kristiansund BK (-1.5) 13.0% 11.5% 25.2% 0.46× 8.69
Kristiansund BK (-2.5) 4.1% 3.7% 10.1% 0.37× 26.74
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL to concede 69.1% 72.6% 77.5% 0.94× 1.38
Tromsø IL clean sheet 30.9% 27.4% 22.5% 1.22× 3.64
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL clean sheet in 1st half 60.3% 64.6% 52.4% 1.23× 1.55
Tromsø IL to concede in 1st half 39.7% 35.4% 47.6% 0.74× 2.83
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL under 3.5 goals 94.7% 92.4% 93.5% 0.99× 1.08
Tromsø IL under 2.5 goals 83.6% 81.5% 84.7% 0.96× 1.23
Tromsø IL over 0.5 goals 75.1% 76.2% 69.6% 1.09× 1.31
Tromsø IL under 1.5 goals 59.5% 59.6% 63.5% 0.94× 1.68
Tromsø IL over 1.5 goals 40.5% 40.4% 36.5% 1.10× 2.48
Tromsø IL under 0.5 goals 24.9% 23.8% 30.4% 0.78× 4.20
Tromsø IL over 2.5 goals 16.4% 18.5% 15.3% 1.21× 5.40
Tromsø IL over 3.5 goals 5.3% 7.6% 6.5% 1.18× 13.09
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL under 1.5 in 1st half 89.2% 89.6% 87.6% 1.02× 1.12
Tromsø IL under 0.5 in 1st half 57.3% 62.9% 57.6% 1.09× 1.59
Tromsø IL over 0.5 in 1st half 42.7% 37.1% 42.4% 0.88× 2.70
Tromsø IL over 1.5 in 1st half 10.8% 10.4% 12.4% 0.83× 9.66
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK (away no bet) 52.9% 51.3% 66.8% 0.77× 1.95
Draw (away no bet) 47.1% 48.7% 33.2% 1.47× 2.05
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL even goals 53.1% 52.7% 56.4% 0.94× 1.90
Tromsø IL odd goals 46.9% 47.3% 43.6% 1.08× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.3% 87.9% 83.2% 1.06× 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.7% 12.1% 16.9% 0.72× 8.27
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 60.6% 57.6% 65.4% 0.88× 1.74
Both halves under 1.5 goals 39.4% 42.4% 34.6% 1.22× 2.36
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 52.4% 51.2% 60.3% 0.85× 1.95
Tromsø IL to score 2+ in a row 32.7% 28.5% 27.9% 1.02× 3.51
Kristiansund BK to score 2+ in a row 25.1% 25.1% 38.4% 0.65× 3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row 17.3% 16.4% 22.7% 0.72× 6.09
Tromsø IL to score 3+ in a row 10.7% 11.9% 9.1% 1.31× 8.37
Kristiansund BK to score 3+ in a row 6.8% 5.6% 14.2% 0.39× 17.98
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.2% 11.5% 10.1% 1.14× 8.73
0-1 10.1% 11.4% 6.3% 1.82× 8.74
1-0 8.4% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.46
1-2 8.7% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.46
0-0 8.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.46
0-2 7.4% 7.4% 5.8% 1.28× 13.46
2-1 7.4% 7.4% 8.0% 0.93× 13.46
2-0 5.3% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.46
2-2 5.1% 7.4% 4.9% 1.52× 13.46
0-3 3.4% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.57
0-4 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
1-3 4.0% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.58
2-3 2.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.58
2-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.59
3-0 2.1% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.58
3-1 2.9% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.58
3-2 2.0% 1.7% 2.8% 0.60× 58.58
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.17× 58.59
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.59
4-1 0.8% 1.7% 2.0% 0.83× 58.59
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.42× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.42× 58.59
Any other score 2.1% 1.7% 5.0% 0.34× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL leading at HT (DNB) 53.1% 55.8% 46.3% 1.20× 1.79
Kristiansund BK leading at HT (DNB) 46.9% 44.2% 53.7% 0.82× 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK or Tromsø IL (12) 72.3% 72.1% 77.2% 0.93× 1.39
Tromsø IL or draw (X2) 68.9% 69.6% 54.0% 1.29× 1.44
Kristiansund BK or draw (1X) 58.8% 57.0% 68.7% 0.83× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL or draw at HT 74.3% 74.7% 66.9% 1.12× 1.34
Kristiansund BK or draw at HT 70.9% 74.6% 71.5% 1.04× 1.34
Kristiansund BK or Tromsø IL at HT 54.8% 47.7% 61.4% 0.78× 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL or draw (1UP) 68.9% 76.0% 61.9% 1.23× 1.32
Kristiansund BK or draw (1UP) 58.8% 62.8% 72.9% 0.86× 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL or draw in 2nd half 73.3% 73.8% 57.5% 1.28× 1.36
Kristiansund BK or draw in 2nd half 63.7% 63.9% 73.2% 0.87× 1.56
Kristiansund BK or Tromsø IL in 2nd half 63.1% 63.9% 69.1% 0.92× 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 64.8% 61.7% 56.5% 1.09× 1.62
Neither half drawn 35.2% 38.3% 43.5% 0.88× 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (DNB) 57.0% 58.2% 40.5% 1.44× 1.72
Kristiansund BK (DNB) 43.0% 41.8% 59.5% 0.70× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL to score first 49.7% 45.7% 43.9% 1.04× 2.19
Kristiansund BK to score first 42.0% 41.6% 49.6% 0.84× 2.40
No goal scored 8.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.47
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 52.5% 51.5% 53.7% 0.96× 1.94
Not both teams to score 47.5% 48.5% 46.3% 1.05× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 39.5% 38.5% 35.9% 1.07× 2.59
Both score & over 2.5 39.3% 38.5% 43.8% 0.88× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 13.2% 12.3% 10.1% 1.22× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.9% 8.4% 10.6% 0.79× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.7% 85.7% 84.9% 1.01× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.3% 14.3% 15.1% 0.95× 6.98
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.2% 74.5% 70.1% 1.06× 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.8% 25.5% 29.9% 0.85× 3.92
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.8% 60.0% 57.8% 1.04× 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 23.2% 21.2% 23.8% 0.89× 4.73
Both score 1st half only 12.4% 10.5% 12.4% 0.84× 9.54
Both score in both halves 4.7% 5.0% 6.3% 0.80× 19.96
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.0% 82.9% 81.4% 1.02× 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.0% 17.1% 18.6% 0.92× 5.84
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 51.2% 53.3% 59.5% 0.90× 1.88
A half without a goal 48.8% 46.7% 40.5% 1.15× 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.6% 47.4% 43.3% 1.10× 2.11
0-1 goals 26.8% 26.4% 22.7% 1.16× 3.79
4-6 goals 24.0% 22.8% 30.9% 0.74× 4.38
7+ goals 1.6% 1.8% 3.5% 0.52× 55.27
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL to score exactly 1 34.6% 33.9% 33.2% 1.02× 2.95
Tromsø IL to score exactly 0 24.9% 22.4% 30.4% 0.74× 4.46
Tromsø IL to score exactly 2 24.1% 22.4% 21.4% 1.05× 4.47
Tromsø IL to score 3+ 16.4% 19.5% 15.3% 1.28× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK to score exactly 1 36.3% 35.6% 31.7% 1.13× 2.81
Kristiansund BK to score exactly 0 30.9% 32.6% 22.5% 1.45× 3.06
Kristiansund BK to score exactly 2 21.3% 23.3% 23.0% 1.01× 4.30
Kristiansund BK to score 3+ 11.5% 14.3% 23.2% 0.62× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 45.2% 52.3% 38.6% 1.36× 1.91
Tromsø IL leading at HT 29.1% 25.4% 28.5% 0.89× 3.93
Kristiansund BK leading at HT 25.7% 25.3% 33.1% 0.76× 3.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL -1: 1 58.8% 56.7% 1.76
Tromsø IL -1: X 21.5% 23.6% 4.24
Tromsø IL -1: 2 19.7% 17.5% 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (0:1) 68.9% 65.5% 54.0% 1.21× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 18.1% 17.8% 20.9% 0.85× 5.62
Kristiansund BK (0:1) 13.0% 13.8% 25.2% 0.55× 7.22
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (0:2) 87.0% 87.0% 74.8% 1.16× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.9% 7.7% 15.3% 0.51× 12.96
Kristiansund BK (0:2) 4.1% 3.8% 10.1% 0.38× 26.45
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (0:3) 95.9% 96.6% 89.9% 1.07× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.1% 2.4% 6.1% 0.39× 42.00
Kristiansund BK (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 4.1% 0.58× 42.09
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 95.9% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 2.7% 0.45× 83.38
Kristiansund BK (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 1.6% 0.76× 83.45
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK (1:0) 58.8% 58.2% 68.7% 0.85× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 21.5% 21.7% 14.6% 1.48× 4.61
Tromsø IL (1:0) 19.7% 17.0% 16.9% 1.01× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK (2:0) 80.3% 84.5% 83.2% 1.02× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 12.4% 10.4% 9.9% 1.05× 9.62
Tromsø IL (2:0) 7.3% 6.5% 7.1% 0.91× 15.49
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.9% 48.2% 47.2% 1.02× 2.08
Halves equal 26.7% 26.5% 26.3% 1.01× 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.5% 26.6% 1.00× 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK to concede 75.1% 75.8% 69.6% 1.09× 1.32
Kristiansund BK clean sheet 24.9% 24.2% 30.4% 0.80× 4.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK clean sheet in 1st half 57.3% 62.9% 57.6% 1.09× 1.59
Kristiansund BK to concede in 1st half 42.7% 37.1% 42.4% 0.88× 2.70
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK under 3.5 goals 96.8% 96.4% 91.7% 1.05× 1.04
Kristiansund BK under 2.5 goals 88.5% 87.2% 76.9% 1.14× 1.15
Kristiansund BK over 0.5 goals 69.1% 67.9% 77.5% 0.88× 1.47
Kristiansund BK under 1.5 goals 67.2% 67.9% 54.0% 1.26× 1.47
Kristiansund BK over 1.5 goals 32.8% 32.1% 46.0% 0.70× 3.12
Kristiansund BK under 0.5 goals 30.9% 32.1% 22.5% 1.42× 3.12
Kristiansund BK over 2.5 goals 11.5% 12.8% 23.2% 0.55× 7.84
Kristiansund BK over 3.5 goals 3.2% 3.6% 8.3% 0.44× 27.42
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK under 1.5 in 1st half 90.8% 95.4% 87.2% 1.09× 1.05
Kristiansund BK under 0.5 in 1st half 60.3% 64.4% 52.4% 1.23× 1.55
Kristiansund BK over 0.5 in 1st half 39.7% 35.6% 47.6% 0.75× 2.81
Kristiansund BK over 1.5 in 1st half 9.2% 4.6% 12.8% 0.36× 21.61
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL (home no bet) 59.9% 56.7% 57.8% 0.98× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 40.1% 43.3% 42.2% 1.03× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK even goals 54.8% 50.7% 51.3% 0.99× 1.97
Kristiansund BK odd goals 45.2% 49.3% 48.7% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.7% 32.6% 28.7% 1.14× 3.07
HT 0-1 19.1% 18.9% 16.9% 1.12× 5.29
HT 1-0 17.4% 18.9% 21.3% 0.89× 5.30
HT 1-1 9.8% 7.1% 9.4% 0.75× 14.06
HT 0-2 5.4% 7.1% 5.5% 1.28× 14.13
HT 2-0 4.4% 2.2% 6.6% 0.34× 44.59
Any other HT score 3.4% 2.2% 4.7% 0.47× 44.67
HT 1-2 2.7% 2.2% 4.1% 0.55× 44.73
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.2% 3.3% 0.68× 44.75
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.2% 0.8% 2.83× 44.89
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL at HT / Tromsø IL at FT 22.5% 22.1% 18.9% 1.17× 4.52
Kristiansund BK at HT / Kristiansund BK at FT 17.6% 16.8% 27.7% 0.61× 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.4% 16.8% 12.9% 1.30× 5.95
Draw at HT / Tromsø IL at FT 16.1% 16.8% 11.0% 1.52× 5.96
Draw at HT / Kristiansund BK at FT 11.8% 12.7% 15.0% 0.85× 7.90
Kristiansund BK at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% 3.9% 1.53× 16.63
Tromsø IL at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 6.3% 0.55× 29.09
Kristiansund BK at HT / Tromsø IL at FT 2.6% 3.4% 1.7% 1.98× 29.18
Tromsø IL at HT / Kristiansund BK at FT 1.7% 3.4% 3.6% 0.95× 29.22
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL to score last 49.7% 47.0% 40.5% 1.16× 2.13
Kristiansund BK to score last 42.0% 40.1% 53.1% 0.76× 2.49
No goal scored 8.3% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.47
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 91.7% 92.7% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Tromsø IL to lead by 1 at any time 56.9% 55.0% 49.1% 1.12× 1.82
Kristiansund BK to lead by 1 at any time 48.1% 44.0% 58.4% 0.75× 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 43.6% 39.1% 51.3% 0.76× 2.56
Tromsø IL to lead by 2 at any time 25.5% 25.1% 21.7% 1.16× 3.98
Kristiansund BK to lead by 2 at any time 18.2% 14.9% 29.8% 0.50× 6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.5% 10.5% 20.2% 0.52× 9.52
Tromsø IL to lead by 3 at any time 9.1% 6.6% 8.3% 0.79× 15.24
Kristiansund BK to lead by 3 at any time 5.5% 6.5% 12.0% 0.54× 15.43
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.0% 87.4% 85.0% 1.03× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.9% 78.6% 76.5% 1.03× 1.27
2-6 goals 71.6% 72.4% 74.0% 0.98× 1.38
2-5 goals 68.6% 69.0% 69.0% 1.00× 1.45
1-3 goals 66.0% 69.0% 59.4% 1.16× 1.45
2-4 goals 61.4% 63.5% 60.5% 1.05× 1.58
2-3 goals 47.6% 48.7% 43.3% 1.12× 2.06
3-6 goals 45.7% 48.7% 50.9% 0.96× 2.06
1-2 goals 44.4% 43.6% 39.4% 1.11× 2.29
3-5 goals 42.6% 43.6% 45.8% 0.95× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.5% 39.2% 37.3% 1.05× 2.55
4-6 goals 24.0% 24.5% 30.9% 0.79× 4.09
4-5 goals 21.0% 24.4% 25.8% 0.95× 4.09
5-6 goals 10.2% 14.8% 13.7% 1.08× 6.74
7+ goals 1.6% 2.5% 3.5% 0.73× 39.51
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL never behind 43.6% 48.3% 41.6% 1.16× 2.07
Kristiansund BK never behind 34.8% 35.6% 50.9% 0.70× 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.5% 50.8% 47.1% 1.08× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.5% 49.2% 52.9% 0.93× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 56.2% 57.8% 51.8% 1.12× 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 43.8% 42.2% 48.2% 0.88× 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.9% 52.0% 49.3% 1.06× 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.1% 48.0% 50.7% 0.95× 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.4% 95.5% 91.5% 1.04× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 91.7% 92.3% 93.4% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.2% 87.7% 83.0% 1.06× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 74.4% 72.5% 65.8% 1.10× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 73.2% 72.5% 77.3% 0.94× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 52.7% 52.4% 45.8% 1.14× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 47.3% 47.6% 54.2% 0.88× 2.10
Under 1.5 goals 26.8% 27.5% 22.7% 1.21× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 25.6% 27.5% 34.2% 0.80× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 11.8% 12.3% 17.0% 0.72× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 8.3% 7.7% 6.6% 1.17× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 4.6% 4.5% 8.5% 0.53× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.3% 97.3% 96.4% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.0% 92.5% 90.7% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.3% 86.7% 79.5% 1.09× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 67.3% 67.3% 57.3% 1.18× 1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 63.8% 62.1% 70.5% 0.88× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 36.2% 37.9% 29.5% 1.28× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 32.7% 32.7% 42.7% 0.76× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.7% 13.3% 20.5% 0.65× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 5.0% 7.5% 9.3% 0.81× 13.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.7% 2.7% 3.6% 0.75× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.8% 92.7% 87.6% 1.06× 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.2% 71.0% 66.5% 1.07× 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.3% 68.9% 71.3% 0.97× 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.7% 31.1% 28.7% 1.08× 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 28.8% 29.0% 33.5% 0.86× 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.2% 7.3% 12.4% 0.58× 13.76
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 80.8% 82.9% 75.3% 1.10× 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 77.6% 79.9% 81.6% 0.98× 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 55.4% 54.8% 51.3% 1.07× 1.83
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 44.6% 45.2% 48.7% 0.93× 2.21
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 22.4% 20.1% 18.4% 1.09× 4.99
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 19.2% 17.1% 24.7% 0.69× 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK not to score in both halves 80.6% 84.2% 68.0% 1.24× 1.19
Tromsø IL not to score in both halves 75.9% 78.3% 77.6% 1.01× 1.28
Tromsø IL to score in both halves 24.1% 21.7% 22.4% 0.97× 4.61
Kristiansund BK to score in both halves 19.4% 15.8% 32.0% 0.49× 6.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 52.5% 54.0% 53.7% 1.00× 1.85
Only Tromsø IL scores 22.6% 22.4% 16.1% 1.39× 4.47
Only Kristiansund BK scores 16.6% 16.1% 23.9% 0.67× 6.21
Neither team scores 8.3% 7.2% 6.6% 1.09× 13.93
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.9% 25.0% 23.3% 1.07× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.6% 22.6% 20.2% 1.12× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.5% 17.5% 16.2% 1.08× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 13.9% 12.1% 17.3% 0.70× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 8.3% 7.6% 6.6% 1.15× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 7.1% 7.6% 8.7% 0.88× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.6% 4.4% 8.5% 0.52× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 44.6% 44.6% 48.7% 0.92× 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 33.0% 33.8% 33.1% 1.02× 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 22.4% 23.5% 18.4% 1.27× 4.26
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK not to win both halves 93.0% 94.0% 83.2% 1.13× 1.06
Tromsø IL not to win both halves 89.3% 88.1% 90.7% 0.97× 1.14
Tromsø IL to win both halves 10.7% 11.9% 9.3% 1.28× 8.43
Kristiansund BK to win both halves 7.0% 6.0% 16.9% 0.36× 16.61
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Tromsø IL to win either half 54.7% 54.8% 46.0% 1.19× 1.82
Kristiansund BK to win neither half 54.5% 54.8% 41.3% 1.33× 1.82
Kristiansund BK to win either half 45.5% 45.2% 58.7% 0.77× 2.21
Tromsø IL to win neither half 45.3% 45.2% 54.0% 0.84× 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Kristiansund BK not to win to nil 83.4% 83.0% 76.1% 1.09× 1.21
Tromsø IL not to win to nil 77.4% 78.0% 83.9% 0.93× 1.28
Tromsø IL to win to nil 22.6% 22.0% 16.1% 1.37× 4.55
Kristiansund BK to win to nil 16.6% 17.0% 23.9% 0.71× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.7% 27.8% 22.8% 1.22× 3.59
Tromsø IL by 1 21.5% 24.1% 14.6% 1.65× 4.14
Kristiansund BK by 1 18.1% 16.9% 20.9% 0.81× 5.90
Tromsø IL by 2 12.4% 11.8% 9.9% 1.19× 8.46
Kristiansund BK by 2 8.9% 7.2% 15.3% 0.47× 13.80
Tromsø IL by 3+ 7.3% 7.2% 7.1% 1.02× 13.80
Kristiansund BK by 3+ 4.1% 2.7% 10.1% 0.27× 36.94
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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