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Krylia Sovetov v Krasnodar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Krylia Sovetov win
12.3%
Draw
21.2%
Krasnodar win
66.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.81–2.12 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.85–2.43 0-2 11% 64% 53%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win 71.4% 73.7% 28.2% 2.61× 1.36
Draw 18.1% 19.3% 27.8% 0.70× 5.17
Krylia Sovetov to win 10.4% 13.3% 44.2% 0.30× 7.55
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar & not both score 38.2% 33.2% 14.9% 2.22× 3.01
Krasnodar & both teams score 33.3% 29.7% 13.5% 2.20× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 13.6% 13.3% 20.7% 0.64× 7.54
Krylia Sovetov & both teams score 6.2% 8.4% 18.8% 0.45× 11.94
Draw & not both score 4.5% 4.9% 7.4% 0.66× 20.55
Krylia Sovetov & not both score 4.3% 4.9% 25.6% 0.19× 20.56
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar & over 1.5 63.1% 54.7% 20.7% 2.65× 1.83
Krasnodar & over 2.5 52.0% 48.7% 16.6% 2.94× 2.05
Krasnodar & under 3.5 37.9% 34.9% 20.7% 1.69× 2.87
Krasnodar & over 3.5 33.5% 30.9% 7.8% 3.97× 3.24
Krasnodar & under 2.5 19.4% 18.0% 11.9% 1.52× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 13.6% 12.9% 20.7% 0.62× 7.77
Draw & under 2.5 13.1% 12.9% 22.1% 0.58× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 13.1% 12.9% 22.1% 0.58× 7.77
Krylia Sovetov & over 1.5 8.0% 7.9% 33.5% 0.23× 12.70
Krylia Sovetov & under 3.5 7.5% 7.9% 30.9% 0.26× 12.70
Krasnodar & under 1.5 8.3% 7.9% 7.8% 1.01× 12.70
Krylia Sovetov & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 26.0% 0.30× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 5.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 5.9% 1.33× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 4.5% 4.8% 7.4% 0.65× 20.93
Krylia Sovetov & under 2.5 3.8% 4.8% 18.4% 0.26× 20.94
Krylia Sovetov & under 1.5 2.4% 4.8% 10.8% 0.44× 20.94
Krylia Sovetov & over 3.5 3.0% 4.8% 13.5% 0.35× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (1UP) 81.4% 86.9% 1.15
Krylia Sovetov (1UP) 28.2% 27.0% 3.71
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (2UP) 71.4% 80.2% 1.25
Krylia Sovetov (2UP) 10.4% 13.1% 7.65
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win 2nd half 61.2% 58.8% 1.70
2nd half drawn 26.9% 26.3% 3.81
Krylia Sovetov to win 2nd half 11.9% 12.2% 8.22
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (+2.5) 99.2% 96.3% 89.6% 1.08× 1.04
Krasnodar (+1.5) 96.7% 96.3% 77.3% 1.25× 1.04
Krasnodar (+0.5) 89.6% 88.5% 55.8% 1.59× 1.13
Krasnodar (-0.5) 71.4% 73.7% 28.2% 2.61× 1.36
Krylia Sovetov (+0.5) 28.6% 26.3% 71.8% 0.37× 3.80
Krylia Sovetov (-0.5) 10.4% 11.5% 44.2% 0.26× 8.71
Krylia Sovetov (-1.5) 3.3% 3.7% 22.7% 0.16× 26.86
Krylia Sovetov (-2.5) 0.8% 3.7% 10.4% 0.35× 27.02
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to concede 57.3% 62.7% 77.9% 0.80× 1.60
Krasnodar clean sheet 42.7% 37.3% 22.1% 1.69× 2.68
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar clean sheet in 1st half 69.4% 69.6% 1.44
Krasnodar to concede in 1st half 30.6% 30.4% 3.30
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar over 2.5 corners 83.3% 81.0% 1.24
Krasnodar under 6.5 corners 73.6% 72.3% 1.38
Krasnodar over 3.5 corners 69.3% 68.3% 1.47
Krasnodar under 5.5 corners 61.2% 61.4% 1.63
Krasnodar over 4.5 corners 53.7% 52.4% 1.91
Krasnodar under 4.5 corners 46.3% 47.6% 2.10
Krasnodar over 5.5 corners 38.8% 38.6% 2.59
Krasnodar under 3.5 corners 30.7% 31.8% 3.15
Krasnodar over 6.5 corners 26.4% 27.7% 3.62
Krasnodar under 2.5 corners 16.7% 19.0% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar over 0.5 goals 91.2% 92.3% 67.3% 1.37× 1.08
Krasnodar under 3.5 goals 77.2% 76.2% 96.9% 0.79× 1.31
Krasnodar over 1.5 goals 69.9% 68.0% 29.9% 2.28× 1.47
Krasnodar under 2.5 goals 56.1% 59.5% 88.8% 0.67× 1.68
Krasnodar over 2.5 goals 43.9% 40.5% 11.2% 3.60× 2.47
Krasnodar under 1.5 goals 30.1% 32.0% 70.1% 0.46× 3.12
Krasnodar over 3.5 goals 22.8% 23.8% 3.1% 7.75× 4.21
Krasnodar under 0.5 goals 8.8% 7.7% 32.7% 0.23× 13.02
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar under 1.5 in 1st half 74.6% 69.1% 1.45
Krasnodar over 0.5 in 1st half 62.2% 64.1% 1.56
Krasnodar under 0.5 in 1st half 37.8% 35.9% 2.79
Krasnodar over 1.5 in 1st half 25.4% 30.9% 3.24
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 63.5% 62.1% 38.6% 1.61× 1.61
Krylia Sovetov (away no bet) 36.5% 37.9% 61.4% 0.62× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar even goals 50.4% 52.8% 53.4% 0.99× 1.90
Krasnodar odd goals 49.6% 47.2% 46.6% 1.01× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 77.6% 82.2% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 22.4% 17.8% 5.62
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 74.6% 67.4% 1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals 25.4% 32.6% 3.07
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 70.0% 71.7% 1.40
Krasnodar to score 2+ in a row 63.2% 59.9% 1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 36.3% 36.4% 2.75
Krasnodar to score 3+ in a row 34.4% 29.1% 3.44
Krylia Sovetov to score 2+ in a row 12.8% 12.2% 8.21
Krylia Sovetov to score 3+ in a row 2.2% 2.5% 39.23
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar corners (+3.5) 91.0% 88.6% 1.13
Krasnodar corners (+2.5) 85.3% 84.2% 1.19
Krasnodar corners (+1.5) 77.4% 75.5% 1.33
Krylia Sovetov corners (+3.5) 76.7% 75.5% 1.33
Krylia Sovetov corners (+2.5) 67.0% 66.8% 1.50
Krylia Sovetov corners (+1.5) 55.8% 56.8% 1.76
Krasnodar corners (-1.5) 44.2% 43.2% 2.31
Krasnodar corners (-2.5) 33.0% 33.2% 3.01
Krasnodar corners (-3.5) 23.3% 24.5% 4.08
Krylia Sovetov corners (-1.5) 22.6% 24.5% 4.08
Krylia Sovetov corners (-2.5) 14.7% 15.8% 6.31
Krylia Sovetov corners (-3.5) 9.0% 11.4% 8.81
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 47.4% 40.7% 2.46
9-11 corners 30.0% 32.0% 3.13
12+ corners 22.6% 26.3% 3.80
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 84.2% 79.9% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 77.4% 76.6% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 68.9% 67.9% 1.47
Over 7.5 corners 64.2% 62.7% 1.60
Under 9.5 corners 58.7% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 52.6% 52.2% 1.91
Under 8.5 corners 47.4% 47.8% 2.09
Over 9.5 corners 41.3% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 35.8% 37.3% 2.68
Over 10.5 corners 31.1% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 22.6% 23.4% 4.28
Over 12.5 corners 15.8% 20.1% 4.97
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-2 11.1% 11.5% 4.3% 2.67× 8.73
Any other score 10.1% 11.5% 4.1% 2.80× 8.73
0-1 8.3% 7.4% 7.8% 0.95× 13.48
0-3 9.0% 7.4% 2.5% 3.02× 13.48
1-1 8.5% 7.4% 14.9% 0.50× 13.48
1-2 9.4% 7.4% 6.7% 1.10× 13.48
1-3 7.7% 7.4% 2.5% 3.02× 13.48
0-4 5.5% 7.4% 0.4% 18.14× 13.48
1-4 4.7% 1.7% 1.0% 1.67× 58.46
0-0 4.5% 1.7% 7.4% 0.23× 58.46
1-0 2.4% 1.7% 10.8% 0.16× 58.48
2-0 1.4% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.48
2-1 3.3% 1.7% 8.8% 0.19× 58.47
2-2 4.0% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.47
2-3 3.3% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.47
2-4 2.0% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.48
3-0 0.4% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.49
3-1 0.9% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.48
3-2 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 0.76× 58.48
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 1.2% 1.39× 58.48
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 4.18× 58.49
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 2.5% 0.70× 58.49
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.19× 58.49
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.09× 58.49
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.4% 4.18× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.36× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar leading at HT (DNB) 78.7% 78.3% 1.28
Krylia Sovetov leading at HT (DNB) 21.3% 21.7% 4.61
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw (X2) 89.6% 86.7% 55.8% 1.55× 1.15
Krylia Sovetov or Krasnodar (12) 81.9% 80.7% 72.2% 1.12× 1.24
Krylia Sovetov or draw (1X) 28.6% 26.3% 71.8% 0.37× 3.80
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw at HT 86.5% 88.1% 1.14
Krylia Sovetov or Krasnodar at HT 63.3% 62.1% 1.61
Krylia Sovetov or draw at HT 50.2% 47.4% 2.11
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw (1UP) 89.6% 92.1% 1.09
Krylia Sovetov or draw (1UP) 28.6% 32.0% 3.12
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar or draw in 2nd half 88.1% 87.8% 1.14
Krylia Sovetov or Krasnodar in 2nd half 73.1% 73.7% 1.36
Krylia Sovetov or draw in 2nd half 38.8% 41.2% 2.43
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 47.2% 50.1% 2.00
A half drawn 52.8% 49.9% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (DNB) 87.3% 87.2% 39.0% 2.24× 1.15
Krylia Sovetov (DNB) 12.7% 12.8% 61.0% 0.21× 7.80
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score first 70.7% 74.6% 1.34
Krylia Sovetov to score first 24.7% 23.3% 4.29
No goal scored 4.5% 4.3% 23.19
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 53.0% 51.4% 52.6% 0.98× 1.95
Not both teams to score 47.0% 48.6% 47.4% 1.02× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 44.5% 41.6% 37.8% 1.10× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 27.7% 33.6% 37.2% 0.90× 2.98
Not both score & over 2.5 19.2% 21.8% 10.4% 2.09× 4.60
Both score & under 2.5 8.5% 8.4% 14.9% 0.56× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.4% 85.6% 86.9% 0.98× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.6% 14.4% 13.1% 1.10× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.2% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.8% 26.0% 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.7% 59.3% 1.69
Both score 2nd half only 24.1% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 13.6% 10.8% 9.29
Both score in both halves 5.6% 6.7% 14.83
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 80.8% 82.3% 1.22
Both teams to score by HT 19.2% 17.7% 5.66
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.6% 58.9% 1.70
A half without a goal 36.4% 41.1% 2.44
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 43.1% 42.1% 47.9% 0.88× 2.38
4-6 goals 36.7% 35.1% 25.4% 1.38× 2.85
0-1 goals 15.3% 20.2% 25.6% 0.79× 4.96
7+ goals 4.9% 1.8% 1.6% 1.13× 54.29
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score 3+ 43.9% 37.1% 11.2% 3.30× 2.70
Krasnodar to score exactly 2 26.0% 27.4% 18.8% 1.46× 3.65
Krasnodar to score exactly 1 21.4% 22.4% 37.6% 0.60× 4.47
Krasnodar to score exactly 0 8.8% 8.5% 32.7% 0.26× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov to score exactly 1 36.3% 35.6% 35.2% 1.01× 2.81
Krylia Sovetov to score exactly 0 42.7% 34.9% 22.1% 1.58× 2.86
Krylia Sovetov to score exactly 2 15.5% 18.9% 24.3% 0.78× 5.30
Krylia Sovetov to score 3+ 5.5% 10.3% 18.8% 0.55× 9.75
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar leading at HT 49.8% 52.6% 1.90
Draw at HT 36.7% 37.9% 2.64
Krylia Sovetov leading at HT 13.5% 11.9% 8.40
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar -1: 2 49.8% 46.9% 2.13
Krasnodar -1: 1 28.6% 26.5% 3.77
Krasnodar -1: X 21.7% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (0:1) 89.6% 89.5% 55.8% 1.60× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 7.1% 9.2% 21.7% 0.42× 10.88
Krylia Sovetov (0:1) 3.3% 5.8% 22.7% 0.25× 17.37
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (0:2) 96.7% 94.1% 77.3% 1.22× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 2.6% 3.8% 12.5% 0.30× 26.60
Krylia Sovetov (0:2) 0.8% 3.7% 10.4% 0.36× 26.71
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (0:3) 99.2% 96.6% 89.6% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.6% 2.4% 5.9% 0.40× 42.24
Krylia Sovetov (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 4.7% 0.50× 42.26
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 95.3% 1.03× 1.02
Krylia Sovetov (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 1.2% 0.97× 83.68
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 3.7% 0.32× 83.67
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (1:0) 49.8% 49.8% 11.5% 4.35× 2.01
Krylia Sovetov (1:0) 28.6% 25.1% 71.8% 0.35× 3.98
Draw (1:0) 21.7% 21.8% 17.0% 1.28× 4.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov (2:0) 50.2% 54.6% 88.5% 0.62× 1.83
Krasnodar (2:0) 28.7% 24.0% 4.3% 5.59× 4.17
Draw (2:0) 21.0% 19.2% 7.4% 2.61× 5.21
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.9% 50.2% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 25.9% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 23.2% 24.1% 4.15
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov to concede 91.2% 93.0% 67.3% 1.38× 1.08
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet 8.8% 7.0% 32.7% 0.21× 14.23
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov to concede in 1st half 62.2% 64.2% 1.56
Krylia Sovetov clean sheet in 1st half 37.8% 35.8% 2.79
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov under 6.5 corners 86.5% 85.2% 1.17
Krylia Sovetov under 5.5 corners 77.0% 76.1% 1.31
Krylia Sovetov over 2.5 corners 71.7% 71.5% 1.40
Krylia Sovetov under 4.5 corners 63.5% 62.0% 1.61
Krylia Sovetov over 3.5 corners 53.5% 53.1% 1.89
Krylia Sovetov under 3.5 corners 46.5% 46.9% 2.13
Krylia Sovetov over 4.5 corners 36.6% 38.0% 2.63
Krylia Sovetov under 2.5 corners 28.3% 28.5% 3.51
Krylia Sovetov over 5.5 corners 23.0% 23.9% 4.19
Krylia Sovetov over 6.5 corners 13.5% 14.8% 6.75
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov under 3.5 goals 98.9% 96.4% 92.6% 1.04× 1.04
Krylia Sovetov under 2.5 goals 94.5% 92.3% 81.2% 1.14× 1.08
Krylia Sovetov under 1.5 goals 79.0% 77.8% 57.1% 1.36× 1.29
Krylia Sovetov over 0.5 goals 57.3% 58.8% 77.9% 0.75× 1.70
Krylia Sovetov under 0.5 goals 42.7% 41.2% 22.1% 1.87× 2.43
Krylia Sovetov over 1.5 goals 21.0% 22.2% 42.9% 0.52× 4.50
Krylia Sovetov over 2.5 goals 5.5% 7.7% 18.8% 0.41× 12.93
Krylia Sovetov over 3.5 goals 1.1% 3.6% 7.4% 0.49× 27.56
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov under 1.5 in 1st half 94.7% 95.6% 1.05
Krylia Sovetov under 0.5 in 1st half 69.4% 68.2% 1.47
Krylia Sovetov over 0.5 in 1st half 30.6% 31.8% 3.15
Krylia Sovetov over 1.5 in 1st half 5.3% 4.4% 22.57
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar (home no bet) 79.8% 79.3% 50.4% 1.57× 1.26
Draw (home no bet) 20.2% 20.7% 49.6% 0.42× 4.82
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov even goals 59.1% 55.5% 50.5% 1.10× 1.80
Krylia Sovetov odd goals 40.9% 44.5% 49.5% 0.90× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 26.3% 28.8% 3.47
HT 0-1 25.4% 28.8% 3.48
HT 0-2 12.4% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-0 9.5% 7.1% 14.01
HT 1-1 9.5% 7.1% 14.01
Any other HT score 8.1% 7.1% 14.03
HT 1-2 4.5% 2.3% 43.28
HT 2-0 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-1 1.7% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar at HT / Krasnodar at FT 45.6% 44.3% 2.26
Draw at HT / Krasnodar at FT 21.9% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 10.8% 12.7% 7.90
Krylia Sovetov at HT / Krylia Sovetov at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.72
Krylia Sovetov at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% 28.81
Krylia Sovetov at HT / Krasnodar at FT 3.9% 3.5% 28.81
Draw at HT / Krylia Sovetov at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.81
Krasnodar at HT / Draw at FT 3.4% 3.5% 28.83
Krasnodar at HT / Krylia Sovetov at FT 0.8% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to score last 70.9% 72.1% 1.39
Krylia Sovetov to score last 24.6% 26.8% 3.73
No goal scored 4.5% 4.3% 23.19
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.5% 95.6% 1.05
Krasnodar to lead by 1 at any time 81.4% 87.0% 1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 62.7% 61.3% 1.63
Krasnodar to lead by 2 at any time 56.1% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 33.5% 29.4% 3.40
Krasnodar to lead by 3 at any time 32.1% 29.4% 3.40
Krylia Sovetov to lead by 1 at any time 28.2% 25.5% 3.93
Krylia Sovetov to lead by 2 at any time 6.9% 6.6% 15.09
Krylia Sovetov to lead by 3 at any time 1.4% 1.6% 62.96
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar most corners 56.0% 55.4% 1.81
Krylia Sovetov most corners 32.5% 33.8% 2.96
Corners level 11.4% 10.6% 9.39
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 84.0% 83.5% 87.5% 0.95× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.8% 78.6% 73.0% 1.08× 1.27
2-5 goals 73.3% 72.4% 69.3% 1.04× 1.38
1-4 goals 72.1% 72.4% 79.6% 0.91× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.3% 63.4% 61.4% 1.03× 1.58
3-6 goals 58.8% 59.2% 46.6% 1.27× 1.69
1-3 goals 53.9% 53.2% 66.1% 0.81× 1.88
3-5 goals 52.3% 53.2% 42.9% 1.24× 1.88
2-3 goals 43.1% 43.6% 47.9% 0.91× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.3% 43.6% 35.0% 1.25× 2.30
4-6 goals 36.7% 39.1% 25.4% 1.54× 2.55
1-2 goals 31.8% 35.4% 44.8% 0.79× 2.83
4-5 goals 30.1% 35.4% 21.7% 1.63× 2.83
5-6 goals 18.5% 18.6% 11.9% 1.57× 5.37
7+ goals 4.9% 2.6% 1.6% 1.56× 39.11
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar never behind 67.2% 70.3% 1.42
Krylia Sovetov never behind 14.1% 13.2% 7.59
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.4% 50.8% 48.9% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.6% 49.2% 51.1% 0.96× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.7% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.3% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.6% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.4% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.5% 95.5% 92.6% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.5% 87.7% 94.7% 0.93× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 84.7% 82.4% 74.4% 1.11× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 76.6% 77.3% 86.7% 0.89× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 63.7% 61.8% 48.1% 1.29× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 58.4% 58.8% 73.2% 0.80× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 41.6% 41.2% 26.8% 1.54× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 36.3% 38.2% 51.9% 0.74× 2.62
Over 4.5 goals 23.4% 22.7% 13.3% 1.70× 4.41
Under 1.5 goals 15.3% 17.6% 25.6% 0.69× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 11.5% 12.3% 5.3% 2.32× 8.10
Under 0.5 goals 4.5% 4.5% 7.4% 0.61× 22.19
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.7% 92.5% 98.3% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 87.0% 86.7% 94.2% 0.92× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 80.7% 81.0% 65.3% 1.24× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 71.4% 72.6% 84.6% 0.86× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 53.4% 51.8% 34.0% 1.52× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 46.6% 48.2% 66.0% 0.73× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 28.6% 27.4% 15.4% 1.79× 3.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 19.3% 19.0% 34.7% 0.55× 5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.0% 13.3% 5.8% 2.30× 7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.3% 7.5% 1.7% 4.43× 13.28
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 84.8% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 73.7% 71.2% 1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half 61.2% 63.6% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 38.8% 36.4% 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 26.3% 28.8% 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 15.2% 13.7% 7.32
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 85.4% 85.2% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 69.2% 67.6% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 58.1% 54.9% 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 41.9% 45.1% 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 30.8% 32.4% 3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 14.6% 14.8% 6.78
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov not to score in both halves 88.2% 85.8% 1.17
Krasnodar not to score in both halves 52.2% 55.7% 1.80
Krasnodar to score in both halves 47.8% 44.3% 2.26
Krylia Sovetov to score in both halves 11.8% 14.2% 7.07
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 53.0% 53.9% 52.6% 1.03× 1.85
Only Krasnodar scores 38.2% 39.9% 14.9% 2.67× 2.51
Neither team scores 4.5% 4.6% 7.4% 0.62× 21.79
Only Krylia Sovetov scores 4.3% 4.6% 25.6% 0.18× 21.81
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 21.5% 1.05× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 21.0% 22.6% 26.6% 0.85× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 18.2% 17.4% 13.7% 1.27× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 11.9% 12.1% 8.2% 1.48× 8.28
6 or more goals 11.5% 12.1% 5.3% 2.27× 8.28
Exactly 1 goals 10.8% 12.1% 18.4% 0.66× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 4.5% 4.4% 7.4% 0.60× 22.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 58.1% 53.4% 1.87
1 goal in 2nd half 27.3% 29.8% 3.36
No goals in 2nd half 14.6% 14.6% 6.87
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov not to win both halves 98.3% 97.3% 1.03
Krasnodar not to win both halves 69.3% 70.6% 1.42
Krasnodar to win both halves 30.7% 29.4% 3.41
Krylia Sovetov to win both halves 1.7% 2.7% 36.58
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar to win either half 80.3% 82.6% 1.21
Krylia Sovetov to win neither half 76.2% 79.6% 1.26
Krylia Sovetov to win either half 23.8% 20.4% 4.90
Krasnodar to win neither half 19.7% 17.4% 5.76
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krylia Sovetov not to win to nil 95.7% 96.1% 74.4% 1.29× 1.04
Krasnodar not to win to nil 61.8% 66.7% 85.1% 0.78× 1.50
Krasnodar to win to nil 38.2% 33.3% 14.9% 2.23× 3.01
Krylia Sovetov to win to nil 4.3% 3.9% 25.6% 0.15× 25.75
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Krasnodar by 3+ 28.7% 27.9% 4.3% 6.49× 3.59
Krasnodar by 1 21.7% 24.1% 17.0% 1.42× 4.14
Krasnodar by 2 21.0% 24.1% 7.4% 3.28× 4.14
Draw 18.1% 16.9% 27.8% 0.61× 5.91
Krylia Sovetov by 1 7.1% 7.3% 21.7% 0.33× 13.78
Krylia Sovetov by 2 2.6% 2.7% 12.5% 0.22× 37.00
Krylia Sovetov by 3+ 0.8% 2.7% 10.4% 0.26× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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