Las Vegas Lights v New Mexico United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 September 2026 · FIFA:c1d9p6b2e9zr5tqlzx3ktjplg · 2627
FIFA:c1d9p6b2e9zr5tqlzx3ktjplg
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.4%
- 1-0 10.6%
- 2-1 8.9%
- 0-1 8.7%
- 2-0 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.3% | Under 2.5 | 51.7% |
| BTTS yes | 52.5% | BTTS no | 47.5% |
| Las Vegas Lights 1+ | 76.2% | Las Vegas Lights 2+ | 42.0% |
| New Mexico United 1+ | 69.0% | New Mexico United 2+ | 32.7% |
Expected goals 1.43 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Las Vegas Lights have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while New Mexico United have allowed 1.35.
- At home Las Vegas Lights average 1.35 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Las Vegas Lights have only 0 matches on record.
- New Mexico United have only 0 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Las Vegas Lights have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 30.8% for New Mexico United and 26.1% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.43 for Las Vegas Lights and 1.17 for New Mexico United.
Why Las Vegas Lights
Las Vegas Lights have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while New Mexico United have allowed 1.35. At home Las Vegas Lights average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.1%.
Why New Mexico United can win
New Mexico United have created 1.35 xG a match over their last five while Las Vegas Lights have allowed 1.35. Away from home New Mexico United average 1.35 xG a match.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Las Vegas Lights, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for New Mexico United, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Las Vegas Lights: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. New Mexico United: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Las Vegas Lights are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.43–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.