Lazio v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 3 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 17
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 9
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.06 – 0.32
Goals − xG
+1.41 – -1.52
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
46.2%
Draw
28.6%
Cagliari win
25.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.19–1.00 | 2-1 10% | 62% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 0.59 xGCagliari 1.52 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 19' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
 Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 27' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 29' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Manuel Lazzari |
| 30' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 42' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Folorunsho |
| 43' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Michael Folorunsho |
| 44' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 46' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 51' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
| 52' |
Cagliari |
Yerry Mina | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 64' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 74' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mattia Felici |
| 81' |
Cagliari |
Leonardo Pavoletti | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 81' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Felici |
| 84' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Cagliari |
Leonardo Pavoletti | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Semih Kiliçsoy |
| 85' |
Cagliari |
Mattia Felici | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 88' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Provstgaard |
| 90' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 92' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Zito |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matteo Prati DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.58 | 0.98 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.47 |
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.13 | 0.27 |
| Marco Palestra DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Gennaro Borrelli FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.08 |
| Gianluca Gaetano AMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| Mattia Felici Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Zito Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.12 | 0.53 |
| Adam Marusic DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Danilo Cataldi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Gustav Isaksen FWR | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Toma Basic MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Matías Vecino Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luca Pellegrini Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |