Lazio v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 9 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 14
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.07
Goals − xG
-0.50 – +0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
18.2%
Draw
21.7%
Internazionale win
60.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.86–1.80 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.14–1.76 | 1-1 11% | 56% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 0.50 xGInternazionale 2.18 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Internazionale |
Andy Diouf | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Thuram |
| 5' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcus Thuram |
| 9' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 13' |
 Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Internazionale |
Petar Sucic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lautaro Martínez |
| 43' |
Internazionale |
Nicolò Barella | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Internazionale |
Yann Bisseck | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 51' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Rovella |
| 54' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 56' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 60' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 60' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 61' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 69' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 72' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 75' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ange-Yoan Bonny |
| 82' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Andy Diouf |
| 83' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Provstgaard |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 88' |
Internazionale |
Mattia Mosconi | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luis Henrique |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Andy Diouf DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.75 |
| Carlos Augusto DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Francesco Acerbi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Petar Sucic MC | 80 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 63 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.54 | 0.30 | 1.27 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 46 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.48 | 0.63 | 1.11 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 46 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 44 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Luis Henrique Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Mattia Mosconi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tijjani Noslin FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Toma Basic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Edoardo Motta GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Pedro FWL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolo Rovella MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Mario Gila DC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Oliver Provstgaard Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| Patric Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.22 |
| Manuel Lazzari Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |