Lazio v Lecce — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 25 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 9
On target
7 – 3
Shots in box
18 – 6
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.78 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-1.75 – +0.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
62.4%
Draw
23.2%
Lecce win
14.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.96–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.13–0.79 | 2-0 12% | 56% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.75 xGLecce 0.71 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Lecce attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlsson |
| 3' |
Lecce |
Kialonda Gaspar | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlsson |
| 11' |
 Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 21' |
Lecce |
Frederic Guilbert | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlsson |
| 22' |
Lecce |
Antonino Gallo | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 35' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adam Marusic |
| 40' |
Lecce |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlsson |
| 42' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Nikola Krstovic |
| 45' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.21 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Lecce |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Medon Berisha |
| 51' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 52' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
| 54' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Gila |
| 59' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Lazio |
Nicolo Rovella | 0.12 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 61' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 62' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 64' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Rovella |
| 76' |
Lazio |
Matías Vecino | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 77' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 78' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 84' |
Lazio |
Elseid Hysaj | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Elseid Hysaj | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0.84 | 0.11 | 0.66 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Boulaye Dia AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| Matteo Guendouzi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.67 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.05 | 0.57 |
| Christos Mandas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mattia Zaccagni AML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Nicolo Rovella DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.57 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Gustav Isaksen AMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pedro Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 0.25 | 0.04 | 0.67 |
| Elseid Hysaj Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Luca Pellegrini Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Matías Vecino Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.10 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Medon Berisha AMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Jesper Karlsson AML | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Thórir Helgason Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Danilo Veiga Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rares Burnete Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |