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Lazio v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 9 February 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

5–1
4.43 – 0.87 xG
Shots
26 – 3
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
17 – 2
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.29
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.81
Goals − xG
+0.57 – +0.13
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.22.53.75.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Adam Marusic 30' — goalPedro 56' — goalValentín Castellanos 62' — goalPedro 76' — goalStefano Sensi 85' — goalFisayo Dele-Bashiru 87' — goal
Lazio 4.43 xGMonza 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Valentín Castellanos 10' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alessio Romagnoli 12' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Mattia Zaccagni 12' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Mattia Zaccagni 15' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 17' — Missed Shot (0.71 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 18' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 20' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Gustav Isaksen 22' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Matteo Guendouzi 22' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 24' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 25' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 25' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mattia Zaccagni 29' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Adam Marusic 30' — Goal (0.64 xG, Open Play)Boulaye Dia 33' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Pedro 45' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Nuno Tavares 46' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Pedro 48' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gustav Isaksen 50' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Nuno Tavares 53' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Adam Marusic 54' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Pedro 56' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Valentín Castellanos 62' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Pedro Pereira 64' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 69' — Missed Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Georgios Kyriakopoulos 74' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Pedro 76' — Goal (0.51 xG, Open Play)Stefano Sensi 85' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 87' — Goal (0.30 xG, Open Play)
Lazio attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
10' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nicolo Rovella
12' Lazio Alessio Romagnoli 0.08 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Nuno Tavares
12' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot Nuno Tavares
15' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.30 Open Play Missed Shot Gustav Isaksen
17' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.71 Open Play Missed Shot Nuno Tavares
18' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Boulaye Dia
20' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
22' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Adam Marusic
22' Lazio Matteo Guendouzi 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolo Rovella
24' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.01 Open Play Saved Shot Gustav Isaksen
25' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mattia Zaccagni
25' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.04 Open Play Missed Shot Nuno Tavares
29' Lazio Mattia Zaccagni 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolo Rovella
30' Lazio Adam Marusic 0.64 Open Play Goal Valentín Castellanos
33' Lazio Boulaye Dia 0.13 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mattia Zaccagni
45' Lazio Pedro 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Gustav Isaksen
46' Lazio Nuno Tavares 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
48' Lazio Pedro 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Matteo Guendouzi
50' Lazio Gustav Isaksen 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pedro
53' Lazio Nuno Tavares 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Mattia Zaccagni
54' Lazio Adam Marusic 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot Mario Gila
56' Lazio Pedro 0.37 Open Play Left Foot Goal Valentín Castellanos
62' Lazio Valentín Castellanos 0.48 Open Play Right Foot Goal Mattia Zaccagni
64' Monza Pedro Pereira 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Gaetano Castrovilli
69' Lazio Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 0.14 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Ivan Provedel
74' Monza Georgios Kyriakopoulos 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
76' Lazio Pedro 0.51 Open Play Left Foot Goal Tijjani Noslin
85' Monza Stefano Sensi 0.76 Right Foot Goal
87' Lazio Fisayo Dele-Bashiru 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Goal Nicolo Rovella

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Pedro Pereira DML 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Tomás Palacios DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Stefan Lekovic DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Silvère Ganvoula FW 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Semuel Pizzignacco GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Armando Izzo DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dany Mota AMC 80 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Alessandro Bianco MC 80 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Patrick Ciurria AMC 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kacper Urbanski MC 61 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Georgios Kyriakopoulos Sub 59 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.06
Kevin Martins DMR 31 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Stefano Sensi Sub 29 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.06
Gaetano Castrovilli Sub 29 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Samuele Vignato Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kevin Zeroli Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lazio

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Adam Marusic DR 90 1 0 2 1 0.67 0.01 1.19
Alessio Romagnoli DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 2.08
Matteo Guendouzi DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.06 1.79
Mario Gila DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 1.97
Nicolo Rovella DMC 90 0 1 0 4 0.00 0.37 1.57
Ivan Provedel GK 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.14 1.92
Valentín Castellanos FW 77 1 2 8 2 1.49 1.01 2.95
Mattia Zaccagni AML 77 0 1 3 4 0.37 0.68 1.98
Nuno Tavares DL 66 0 0 2 4 0.12 0.86 1.13
Gustav Isaksen AMR 66 0 0 2 3 0.11 0.38 1.56
Pedro Sub 56 2 0 4 1 1.01 0.10 1.11
Boulaye Dia AMC 34 0 0 1 1 0.13 0.15 1.30
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub 24 1 0 2 0 0.43 0.00 0.95
Manuel Lazzari Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.30
Tijjani Noslin Sub 13 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.51 0.81
Loum Tchaouna Sub 13 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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