Lazio v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 31 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 7
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
11 – 6
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.27 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.95 – +0.37
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
49.9%
Draw
28.4%
Torino win
21.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.72–1.08 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.95 xGTorino 0.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Torino |
Eljif Elmas | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 12' |
 Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 12' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 17' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 17' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 25' |
Lazio |
Nicolo Rovella | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 37' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pedro |
| 41' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 50' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 51' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Cristiano Biraghi |
| 56' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedro |
| 66' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 67' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.36 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Gustav Isaksen |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Nicolo Rovella | 0.04 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Lazio |
Matteo Guendouzi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Zaccagni |
| 79' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonio Sanabria |
| 81' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 83' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Rovella |
| 90' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fisayo Dele-Bashiru |
| 90' |
Lazio |
Adam Marusic | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eljif Elmas AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vanja Milinkovic-Savic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristiano Biraghi DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.00 |
| Samuele Ricci DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Valentino Lazaro AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Cesare Casadei DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| Gvidas Gineitis Sub | 16 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Yann Karamoh Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Ivan Ilic Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marcus Pedersen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Isaksen AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.30 | 0.69 | 1.03 |
| Adam Marusic DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Mattia Zaccagni AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.03 | 0.25 |
| Nicolo Rovella DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.37 |
| Matteo Guendouzi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.53 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Samuel Gigot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro AMC | 76 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.05 | 0.79 |
| Elseid Hysaj DR | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.30 | 0.46 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.57 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| Luca Pellegrini Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |