Lazio v Torino — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 16
On target
4 – 8
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.45
Goals − xG
+1.55 – +0.80
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
55.0%
Draw
26.2%
Torino win
18.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–0.89 | 1-0 12% | 52% | 50% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.45 xGTorino 2.20 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Torino attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 1' |
 Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 5' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 15' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 15' |
Torino |
Marcus Pedersen | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 20' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Boulaye Dia |
| 23' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Pedro |
| 23' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 34' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Toma Basic |
| 41' |
Torino |
Cyril Ngonge | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 41' |
Torino |
Marcus Pedersen | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 42' |
Lazio |
Toma Basic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 56' |
Lazio |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Danilo Cataldi |
| 57' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Marcus Pedersen |
| 65' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 72' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Niels Nkounkou |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Niels Nkounkou |
| 83' |
Torino |
Ali Dembélé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
| 91' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Niels Nkounkou |
| 92' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.40 | From Corner | — | Goal | Adam Masina |
| 102' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyril Ngonge FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.05 | 0.65 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.54 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.28 |
| Cesare Casadei MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Franco Israel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Giovanni Simeone FW | 80 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Marcus Pedersen DMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Nikola Vlasic MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Adrien Tameze DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Valentino Lazaro DML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Niels Nkounkou Sub | 26 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| Che Adams Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Adam Masina Sub | 19 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.33 |
| Ali Dembélé Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Gvidas Gineitis Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo Cataldi DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.76 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Matteo Cancellieri AMR | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Elseid Hysaj DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Boulaye Dia AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| Toma Basic DMC | 68 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Pedro AML | 68 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Reda Belahyane Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tijjani Noslin Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manuel Lazzari Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |