Lazio v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 27 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 16
On target
5 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 10
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.27
Goals − xG
+1.13 – +0.64
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lazio win
42.6%
Draw
27.6%
Udinese win
29.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.22–0.97 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.46–0.97 | 1-0 13% | 44% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lazio 1.87 xGUdinese 2.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lazio attacking right
Udinese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 8' |
 Lazio |
Matteo Cancellieri | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tijjani Noslin |
| 16' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 17' |
Udinese |
Kingsley Ehizibue | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 18' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 23' |
Udinese |
Jakub Piotrowski | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 28' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Toma Basic |
| 33' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Lazio |
Patric | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 42' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 44' |
Udinese |
Idrissa Gueye | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Lazio |
Luca Pellegrini | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 70' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Pellegrini |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Gustav Isaksen | 0.18 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro |
| 71' |
Lazio |
Tijjani Noslin | 0.18 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lazio |
Oliver Provstgaard | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Pedro |
| 75' |
Udinese |
Adam Buksa | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kingsley Ehizibue |
| 79' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Toma Basic |
| 84' |
Lazio |
Fisayo Dele-Bashiru | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 85' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.88 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 85' |
Udinese |
Vakoun Bayo | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Nicolo Zaniolo |
| 90' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lennon Miller |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Udinese |
Nicolo Zaniolo | 0.06 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lennon Miller |
| 92' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Vakoun Bayo |
| 94' |
Lazio |
Alessio Romagnoli | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Gustav Isaksen |
| 94' |
Lazio |
Daniel Maldini | 0.71 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pedro |
| 94' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthur Atta MC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.04 | 0.00 | 1.50 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0.11 | 0.70 | 1.19 |
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.39 | 0.54 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.49 |
| Hassane Kamara DML | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Christian Kabasele DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| Jakub Piotrowski MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Lennon Miller Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.10 | 0.04 |
| Adam Buksa Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 7 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.06 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Juan Arizala Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Oliver Provstgaard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Toma Basic MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| Edoardo Motta GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Manuel Lazzari DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Luca Pellegrini DL | 85 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.40 |
| Tijjani Noslin FWL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.30 | 0.35 | 0.58 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Kenneth Taylor MC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Boulaye Dia FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Pedro Sub | 43 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Daniel Maldini Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Nuno Tavares Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |