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Le Havre v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 September 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

0–3
0.49 – 3.57 xG
Shots
7 – 18
On target
4 – 10
Shots in box
3 – 14
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.96
Goals − xG
-0.49 – -0.57
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.02.03.04.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jonathan Christian David 22' — goalJonathan Christian David 34' — goalJonathan Christian David 78' — goal
Le Havre 0.49 xGLille 3.57 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Jonathan Christian David 5' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Christian David 7' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Christian David 7' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Alexsandro Ribeiro 8' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Osame Sahraoui 17' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Edon Zhegrova 19' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Christian David 22' — Goal (0.58 xG, Open Play)Antoine Joujou 24' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Edon Zhegrova 27' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Christian David 30' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Bafode Diakite 31' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Jonathan Christian David 34' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)Edon Zhegrova 45' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Tiago Santos 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Issa Soumaré 48' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Abdoulaye Touré 59' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Steve Ngoura 61' — Saved Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Steve Ngoura 64' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Emmanuel Sabbi 68' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jonathan Christian David 78' — Goal (0.50 xG, Open Play)Steve Ngoura 86' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Mitchel Bakker 89' — Saved Shot (0.43 xG, Open Play)Ethan Mbappé 91' — Saved Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Angel Gomes 94' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Angel Gomes 94' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Le Havre attacking right Lille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Gabriel Gudmundsson
7' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.02 Open Play Saved Shot Angel Gomes
7' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Angel Gomes
8' Lille Alexsandro Ribeiro 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot Edon Zhegrova
17' Lille Osame Sahraoui 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
19' Lille Edon Zhegrova 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot André Gomes
22' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.58 Open Play Left Foot Goal Osame Sahraoui
24' Le Havre Antoine Joujou 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
27' Lille Edon Zhegrova 0.01 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Angel Gomes
30' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.07 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
31' Lille Bafode Diakite 0.04 From Corner Saved Shot Jonathan Christian David
34' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Goal Osame Sahraoui
45' Lille Edon Zhegrova 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Jonathan Christian David
47' Lille Tiago Santos 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Osame Sahraoui
48' Le Havre Issa Soumaré 0.02 Set Piece Saved Shot Christopher Operi
59' Le Havre Abdoulaye Touré 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Oussama Targhaline
61' Le Havre Steve Ngoura 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Oussama Targhaline
64' Le Havre Steve Ngoura 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Daler Kuzyaev
68' Le Havre Emmanuel Sabbi 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Arouna Sangante
78' Lille Jonathan Christian David 0.50 Open Play Goal Edon Zhegrova
86' Le Havre Steve Ngoura 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Issa Soumaré
89' Lille Mitchel Bakker 0.43 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Angel Gomes
91' Lille Ethan Mbappé 0.41 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Angel Gomes
94' Lille Angel Gomes 0.76 Right Foot Saved Shot
94' Lille Angel Gomes 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mitchel Bakker

Players

Le Havre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Issa Soumaré FW 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.02 0.04
Abdoulaye Touré MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.34
Arouna Sangante DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.35
Arthur Desmas GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Christopher Operi DL 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.34
Étienne Youté DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Gautier Lloris DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.32
Antoine Joujou ML 63 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Yassine Kechta MC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Loïc Négo DR 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Josué Casimir MR 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Steve Ngoura Sub 27 0 0 3 0 0.39 0.00 0.34
Emmanuel Sabbi Sub 27 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.35
Oussama Targhaline Sub 27 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.34 0.34
Daler Kuzyaev Sub 27 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.02

Lille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jonathan Christian David FW 90 3 0 7 2 1.65 0.08 2.06
Angel Gomes AMC 90 0 0 2 5 0.85 0.96 1.73
Alexsandro Ribeiro DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 1.29
Bafode Diakite DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 1.41
Lucas Chevalier GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.75
André Gomes DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 2.39
Edon Zhegrova AMR 89 0 1 3 2 0.07 0.56 0.74
Benjamin André DMC 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.93
Tiago Santos DR 86 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.94
Osame Sahraoui AML 78 0 2 1 3 0.04 0.93 0.97
Gabriel Gudmundsson DL 78 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.42
Mitchel Bakker Sub 12 0 0 1 1 0.43 0.09 1.03
Rémy Cabella Sub 12 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.94
Thomas Meunier Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.51
Ayyoub Bouaddi Sub 3 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Ethan Mbappé Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.41 0.00 0.85
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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