Le Havre v Monaco — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2627
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 15
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 0.26
Goals − xG
-0.66 – -0.79
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
28.8%
Draw
27.1%
Monaco win
44.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Monaco are finishing sharply above their chances — 4.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLDDWLLWWW last 10
scored 18
from 14.0 xG
conceded 17
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–1.57 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.28–1.93 | 1-1 10% | 62% | 62% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 0.66 xGMonaco 1.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Monaco attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Stanis Idumbo Muzambo |
| 4' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Monaco |
Denis Zakaria | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Stanis Idumbo Muzambo |
| 5' |
Monaco |
Vanderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lamine Camara |
| 7' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vanderson |
| 10' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Flávio Nazinho |
| 13' |
Monaco |
Eric Dier | 0.12 | From Corner | — | Goal | Flávio Nazinho |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 15' |
Monaco |
Paris Brunner | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 22' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aleksandr Golovin |
| 29' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Timothee Pembele |
| 35' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Amir Richardson |
| 41' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 51' |
Monaco |
Stanis Idumbo Muzambo | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sadibou Sané |
| 53' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Amir Richardson |
| 54' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 58' |
Le Havre |
Amir Richardson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mbwana Samatta |
| 58' |
Monaco |
Anis Soubeir | 0.33 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 60' |
Le Havre |
Amir Richardson | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Koffi |
| 67' |
Monaco |
Lamine Camara | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Le Havre |
Simon Ebonog | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rassoul Ndiaye |
| 72' |
Monaco |
Aleksandr Golovin | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Le Havre |
Sota Nakamura | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 83' |
Le Havre |
Enzo Koffi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josh Maja |
| 84' |
Le Havre |
Enzo Koffi | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Le Havre |
Kaito Mizuta | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Maja |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amir Richardson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.26 |
| Simon Ebonog MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Vincent Sasso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lionel Mpasi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Junior Mwanga MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ayumu Seko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Fodé Doucouré DMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 0.18 |
| Timothee Pembele DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Enzo Koffi Sub | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DML | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Sota Nakamura Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Elias Jelert Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Maja Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Kaito Mizuta Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Monaco
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksandr Golovin AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.44 | 0.11 | 0.51 |
| Eric Dier DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Lamine Camara DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| Vanderson DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.33 |
| Denis Zakaria DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Lukas Hradecky GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sadibou Sané DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Stanis Idumbo Muzambo AML | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 0.22 |
| Flávio Nazinho DL | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
| Paris Brunner FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Mamadou Coulibaly AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Anis Soubeir Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Mika Biereth Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ilane Touré Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oumar Konaté Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thilo Kehrer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |