Le Havre v Nice — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 31 August 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 7
On target
8 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.16
Goals − xG
+1.24 – +0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
21.0%
Draw
22.5%
Nice win
56.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDDDDDLWLD last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 14
from 18.0 xG
Nice are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.4 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDDDLDDL last 10
scored 5
from 10.6 xG
conceded 15
from 20.4 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–2.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.24–2.13 | 1-2 10% | 65% | 63% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 1.76 xGNice 0.72 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Nice attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 2' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 12' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Issa Soumaré |
| 20' |
 Nice |
Kevin Omoruyi | 0.41 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tom Louchet |
| 27' |
Nice |
Hichem Boudaoui | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Melvin Bard |
| 29' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Loïc Négo |
| 35' |
Nice |
Juma Bah | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jeremie Boga |
| 45' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mbwana Samatta |
| 51' |
Nice |
Kojo Peprah Oppong | 0.14 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Hichem Boudaoui |
| 60' |
Le Havre |
Rassoul Ndiaye | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 62' |
Nice |
Antoine Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 70' |
Nice |
Tom Louchet | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sofiane Diop |
| 71' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Felix Mambimbi |
| 74' |
Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fodé Doucouré |
| 74' |
Le Havre |
Fodé Doucouré | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Issa Soumaré |
| 78' |
Nice |
Terem Igobor Moffi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 80' |
Le Havre |
Mbwana Samatta | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Abdoulaye Touré |
| 94' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.17 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mory Diaw |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré ML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.78 | 1.42 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Arouna Sangante DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Ayumu Seko DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Mory Diaw GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.05 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Mbwana Samatta FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.51 |
| Fodé Doucouré MR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.72 | 0.11 | 1.16 |
| Yassine Kechta MC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Yanis Zouaoui DL | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rassoul Ndiaye MC | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Abdoulaye Touré Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.13 | 0.24 |
| Thomas Delaine Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Felix Mambimbi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.26 |
| Younes Namli Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Simon Ebonog Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Nice
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Omoruyi FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Kojo Peprah Oppong DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hichem Boudaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.14 | 0.46 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Melvin Bard DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.05 |
| Yehvann Diouf GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tom Louchet DMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| Antoine Mendy DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Jeremie Boga AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.41 |
| Isak Jansson AMC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Salis Abdul Samed MC | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sofiane Diop Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Jonathan Clauss Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Terem Igobor Moffi Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Bernard Nguene Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morgan Sanson Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |