Le Havre v Toulouse — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 February 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 11
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
6 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.26 – 1.27
Goals − xG
-0.04 – +1.39
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Le Havre win
24.1%
Draw
34.7%
Toulouse win
41.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Le Havre are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDDDLWLDL last 10
scored 12
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 18.6 xG
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Le Havre 1.04 xGToulouse 2.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Le Havre attacking right
Toulouse attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Toulouse |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Shavy Babicka |
| 36' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 38' |
 Le Havre |
Gautier Lloris | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Toulouse |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Le Havre |
Antoine Joujou | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Junior Mwanga |
| 47' |
Le Havre |
Yassine Kechta | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josué Casimir |
| 48' |
Le Havre |
Josué Casimir | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antoine Joujou |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 50' |
Le Havre |
Issa Soumaré | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Goal | Antoine Joujou |
| 55' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 62' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.51 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Goal | Gabriel Suazo |
| 70' |
Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mahamadou Diawara |
| 77' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Aron Dønnum |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Messali |
| 83' |
Toulouse |
Miha Zajc | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 84' |
Toulouse |
Noah Edjouma | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Rafik Messali |
| 85' |
Toulouse |
Rafik Messali | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frank Magri |
| 88' |
Le Havre |
Abdoulaye Touré | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yanis Zouaoui |
| 88' |
Le Havre |
Ilyes Housni | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Le Havre |
Mahamadou Diawara | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ilyes Housni |
| 96' |
Le Havre |
Mahamadou Diawara | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Loïc Négo |
Players
Le Havre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Issa Soumaré MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Gautier Lloris DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josué Casimir MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.75 |
| Loïc Négo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.72 |
| Étienne Youté DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mathieu Gorgelin GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fode Toure DL | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Antoine Joujou ML | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.32 | 0.41 | 0.73 |
| Yassine Kechta MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Koka FW | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Junior Mwanga DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| Abdoulaye Touré Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Mahamadou Diawara Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| André Ayew Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yanis Zouaoui Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.02 |
| Ilyes Housni Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Sierro MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.62 | 0.79 | 1.33 |
| Frank Magri FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.14 | 0.59 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Kjetil Haug GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Suazo DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.58 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal AMC | 77 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Shavy Babicka AMC | 70 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| Rafik Messali Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.20 | 0.85 |
| Jaydee Canvot Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Miha Zajc Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |