Lecce v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 6 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 16
On target
0 – 6
Shots in box
5 – 13
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 0.04
Goals − xG
-0.37 – +0.18
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
15.8%
Draw
25.8%
Atalanta win
58.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WLDLDWLDWW last 10
scored 13
from 14.0 xG
conceded 10
from 14.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.69–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–1.98 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 0.37 xGAtalanta 2.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10' |
 Lecce |
Sadik Fofana | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 18' |
 Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 27' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Corrie Ndaba |
| 28' |
Atalanta |
Giorgio Scalvini | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 30' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Bernasconi |
| 37' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 41' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 45' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 46' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 48' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Zappacosta |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Jamil Siebert | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 58' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 63' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Éderson |
| 66' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 66' |
Lecce |
Omri Gandelman | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Walid Cheddira |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Mario Pasalic |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 73' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Ngom |
| 74' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 86' |
Lecce |
Oumar Ngom | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lameck Banda |
| 89' |
Atalanta |
Kamaldeen Sulemana | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Giacomo Raspadori |
| 90' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 91' |
Lecce |
Jamil Siebert | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Oumar Ngom |
Players
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lameck Banda AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Corrie Ndaba DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sadik Fofana AMC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lassana Coulibaly Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.05 | 2.11 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.95 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0.18 | 1.26 | 2.21 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lorenzo Bernasconi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.91 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.53 | 0.07 | 2.27 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Davide Zappacosta DMR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.51 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.57 |
| Giacomo Raspadori Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.31 | 0.14 | 0.49 |
| Mario Pasalic Sub | 25 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Raoul Bellanova Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Odilon Kossounou Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |