Lecce v Fiorentina — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 20 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 5
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 4
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.25
Set-piece xG
0.85 – 0.37
Goals − xG
-0.81 – -0.26
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
24.2%
Draw
27.3%
Fiorentina win
48.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Fiorentina are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLDWDLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 15
from 17.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.82–1.30 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.53 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 52% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 1.81 xGFiorentina 1.26 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Fiorentina attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7' |
 Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 17' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Danilo Veiga |
| 28' |
 Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jack Harrison |
| 29' |
Fiorentina |
Jack Harrison | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Rolando Mandragora |
| 37' |
Fiorentina |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.76 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dodô |
| 43' |
Fiorentina |
Rolando Mandragora | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Luís Balbo |
| 44' |
Lecce |
Oumar Ngom | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tiago Gabriel |
| 49' |
Lecce |
Walid Cheddira | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Lecce |
Lassana Coulibaly | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 64' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 69' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 70' |
Lecce |
Tiago Gabriel | 0.64 | From Corner | — | Goal | Antonino Gallo |
| 72' |
Fiorentina |
Cher Ndour | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nicolo Fagioli |
| 74' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nikola Stulic |
| 80' |
Lecce |
Nikola Stulic | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Omri Gandelman |
| 86' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.13 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lassana Coulibaly |
Players
Fiorentina
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Rolando Mandragora MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.90 |
| Luca Ranieri DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Marin Pongracic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Dodô DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| David de Gea GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cher Ndour MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jack Harrison FWR | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.90 |
| Nicolo Fagioli MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.87 |
| Luís Balbo Sub | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Albert Gudmundsson FWL | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Manor Solomon Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Robin Gosens DL | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacopo Fazzini Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Gabriel DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.64 | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Lassana Coulibaly AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.83 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Jamil Siebert DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Danilo Veiga DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.57 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 89 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.71 | 0.17 |
| Walid Cheddira FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Oumar Ngom DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Konan N’Dri AML | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Nikola Stulic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.11 | 0.65 |
| Omri Gandelman Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| Corrie Ndaba Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |