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Lecce v Monza — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 15 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–1
1.58 – 0.79 xG
Shots
12 – 9
On target
4 – 0
Shots in box
7 – 5
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.93 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.42 – +0.21
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Tete Morente 2' — goalNikola Krstovic 43' — goal
Lecce 1.58 xGMonza 0.79 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Tete Morente 2' — Goal (0.29 xG, Open Play)Medon Berisha 11' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 13' — Saved Shot (0.76 xG, )Dany Mota 17' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Nikola Krstovic 18' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Nikola Krstovic 20' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Daniel Maldini 21' — Missed Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Samuele Birindelli 30' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Nikola Krstovic 33' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 36' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Federico Baschirotto 43' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Nikola Krstovic 43' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)Medon Berisha 47' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Warren Bondo 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 56' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Georgios Kyriakopoulos 60' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Daniel Maldini 64' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Dany Mota 70' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Daniel Maldini 86' — Missed Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Omari Forson 88' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Dorgu 96' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)
Lecce attacking right Monza attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Lecce Tete Morente 0.29 Open Play Right Foot Goal Medon Berisha
11' Lecce Medon Berisha 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Frederic Guilbert
13' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.76 Right Foot Saved Shot
17' Monza Dany Mota 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Samuele Birindelli
18' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Hamza Rafia
20' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot
21' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.39 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Samuele Birindelli
30' Monza Samuele Birindelli 0.04 Set Piece Missed Shot Gianluca Caprari
33' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
36' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.00 Open Play Own Goal
43' Lecce Federico Baschirotto 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Blocked Shot
43' Lecce Nikola Krstovic 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Santiago Pierotti
47' Lecce Medon Berisha 0.06 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
49' Monza Warren Bondo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Dany Mota
56' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Hamza Rafia
60' Monza Georgios Kyriakopoulos 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot Gianluca Caprari
64' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
70' Monza Dany Mota 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Warren Bondo
86' Monza Daniel Maldini 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Georgios Kyriakopoulos
88' Monza Omari Forson 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Warren Bondo
96' Lecce Patrick Dorgu 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Ylber Ramadani

Players

Monza

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Daniel Maldini AMC 90 0 0 3 0 0.55 0.00 0.50
Dany Mota FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.14 0.02 0.49
Warren Bondo MC 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.10 0.51
Georgios Kyriakopoulos DML 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.11 0.11
Stefano Turati GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.39
Pablo Marí DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Samuele Birindelli DMR 82 0 0 1 2 0.04 0.45 0.41
Alessandro Bianco MC 82 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gianluca Caprari AMC 70 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.00
Armando Izzo DC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrea Carboni Sub 52 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Luca Caldirola DC 38 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Omari Forson Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.13
Stefano Sensi Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.13
Pedro Pereira Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Mirko Maric Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Lecce

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tete Morente FWL 90 1 0 1 0 0.29 0.00 0.32
Patrick Dorgu DL 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.22
Federico Baschirotto DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.29
Frederic Guilbert DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Wladimiro Falcone GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Gaby Jean DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Santiago Pierotti FWR 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
Lassana Coulibaly MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.29
Nikola Krstovic FW 71 1 0 5 0 1.02 0.00 0.25
Hamza Rafia MC 71 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.11 0.11
Medon Berisha MC 58 0 1 2 1 0.08 0.29 0.42
Ylber Ramadani Sub 32 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.09
Thórir Helgason Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Ante Rebic Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mohamed Kaba Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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