Lecce v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 16
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.04 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.11 – 0.21
Goals − xG
-0.69 – -0.91
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Lecce win
12.3%
Draw
23.7%
Roma win
64.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Lecce are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 8.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLDDWLWWWL last 10
scored 9
from 13.1 xG
conceded 14
from 22.1 xG
Roma are finishing above their chances — 2.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWDWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.4 xG
conceded 8
from 8.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.84–2.07 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Lecce 0.69 xGRoma 1.91 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Lecce attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 8' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 12' |
Roma |
Angelino | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mats Hummels |
| 14' |
 Lecce |
Thórir Helgason | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 20' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 26' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 34' |
Roma |
Kouadio Kone | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Lecce |
Antonino Gallo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jesper Karlsson |
| 39' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Frederic Guilbert |
| 43' |
Lecce |
Jesper Karlsson | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Pierotti |
| 44' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 50' |
Lecce |
Frederic Guilbert | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Lecce |
Santiago Pierotti | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 56' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Frederic Guilbert |
| 58' |
Lecce |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 60' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Angelino |
| 65' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 66' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 73' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ylber Ramadani |
| 73' |
Lecce |
Ylber Ramadani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Konan N’Dri |
| 78' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Konan N’Dri |
| 79' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Bryan Cristante |
| 82' |
Roma |
Artem Dovbyk | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eldor Shomurodov |
| 84' |
Lecce |
Lameck Banda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 87' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelino |
| 89' |
Lecce |
Konan N’Dri | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mohamed Kaba |
| 90' |
Lecce |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Antonino Gallo |
| 90' |
Lecce |
Medon Berisha | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Krstovic |
| 94' |
Roma |
Eldor Shomurodov | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.09 | 0.68 |
| Angelino DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 0.54 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.38 |
| Mats Hummels DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.33 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Artem Dovbyk FW | 85 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.51 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.18 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.07 |
| Eldor Shomurodov Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.45 | 0.12 | 0.57 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Stephan El Shaarawy Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Lecce
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.21 | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| Antonino Gallo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.22 |
| Frederic Guilbert DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Wladimiro Falcone GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kialonda Gaspar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Ylber Ramadani DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Thórir Helgason AMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lassana Coulibaly DMC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Jesper Karlsson AML | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Santiago Pierotti AMR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.15 | 0.27 |
| Lameck Banda Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Konan N’Dri Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.10 |
| Medon Berisha Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Mohamed Kaba Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Ante Rebic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |