Leeds United v Crystal Palace — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Leeds United

10:00

Crystal Palace

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 318h before kick-off

Leeds United win

54.8%

model 53.8%

Draw

22.6%

model 22.9%

Crystal Palace win

22.6%

model 23.3%

552323

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (372 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 10.7%
2-1 9.8%
1-0 9.5%
2-0 8.7%
1-2 6.0%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.9%	Under 2.5	43.1%
BTTS yes	56.9%	BTTS no	43.1%
Leeds United 1+	84.0%	Leeds United 2+	54.7%
Crystal Palace 1+	67.7%	Crystal Palace 2+	31.2%

Expected goals 1.83 – 1.13. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

96/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Crystal Palace to win neither half

Win either half · usually 51%

63.7% fair odds 1.57

moderate signal · 942 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Not both to score by HT

GG/NG half time · usually 80%

83.0% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Leeds United carry the stronger rating, 1635 Elo against 1528.
Leeds United have created 1.82 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.08.
At home Leeds United average 1.60 xG a match.
Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Crystal Palace were missing 1.24 expected goal involvements a match against 0.44.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Leeds United have an estimated 54.8% win probability, against 22.6% for Crystal Palace and 22.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.83 for Leeds United and 1.13 for Crystal Palace.

Why Leeds United

Leeds United carry the stronger rating, 1635 Elo against 1528. Leeds United have created 1.82 xG a match over their last five while Crystal Palace have allowed 2.08. At home Leeds United average 1.60 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Crystal Palace were missing 1.24 expected goal involvements a match against 0.44.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.6%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Crystal Palace can win

Crystal Palace have created 1.57 xG a match over their last five while Leeds United have allowed 1.52. Away from home Crystal Palace average 1.50 xG a match.

Key players

Leeds United's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (0.55), Noah Okafor (0.27), Lukas Nmecha (0.26). Crystal Palace's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Jean-Philippe Mateta (0.46), Ismaila Sarr (0.44), Yeremi Pino (0.32).

Availability

1 of Leeds United's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Leeds United's last eleven are new to the club this window. 2 of Crystal Palace's top three contributors did not start their last match. 27% of Crystal Palace's last eleven are new to the club this window.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Leeds United: 43% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.49 xG a match from set pieces. Crystal Palace: 40% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 18.0 faced, 0.18 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Leeds United are the model's most likely outcome at 54.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 10.7%. Confidence 96/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

WWDWDWLWDD last 10 scored 15 from 18.3 xG conceded 10 from 15.2 xG

Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLLDLDLLLW last 10 scored 10 from 15.7 xG conceded 23 from 20.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	542323	1.83–1.13	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	532720	1.60–0.88	1-1 13%	45%	48%
dc-xg	502327	1.85–1.29	1-1 10%	61%	61%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to win	47.6%	47.5%	43.1%	1.10×	2.11
Crystal Palace to win	29.1%	27.9%	32.3%	0.86×	3.59
Draw	23.3%	24.4%	24.6%	0.99×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United & both teams score	25.7%	25.2%	22.8%	1.10×	3.97
Leeds United & not both score	21.8%	21.9%	20.4%	1.07×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.8%	17.9%	19.9%	0.90×	5.58
Crystal Palace & both teams score	16.5%	17.9%	15.6%	1.15×	5.58
Crystal Palace & not both score	12.7%	13.2%	16.9%	0.79×	7.55
Draw & not both score	4.5%	4.9%	4.8%	1.02×	20.47

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United & over 1.5	39.6%	34.9%	36.7%	0.95×	2.86
Leeds United & over 2.5	32.5%	30.9%	30.2%	1.02×	3.24
Leeds United & under 3.5	28.5%	26.0%	26.8%	0.97×	3.84
Crystal Palace & over 1.5	23.1%	21.6%	25.5%	0.85×	4.62
Leeds United & over 3.5	19.1%	18.0%	16.4%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.8%	18.0%	19.9%	0.90×	5.56
Crystal Palace & over 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Crystal Palace & under 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	21.7%	0.83×	5.56
Leeds United & under 2.5	15.0%	18.0%	13.0%	1.38×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	15.2%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	16.3%	1.11×	5.56
Crystal Palace & under 2.5	10.1%	12.9%	12.4%	1.04×	7.78
Crystal Palace & over 3.5	10.2%	12.9%	10.7%	1.20×	7.78
Leeds United & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	8.5%	0.93×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	8.1%	7.9%	8.5%	0.93×	12.69
Crystal Palace & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	4.5%	4.8%	4.8%	1.00×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (1UP)	64.2%	63.3%	62.2%	1.02×	1.58
Crystal Palace (1UP)	48.6%	43.0%	51.3%	0.84×	2.33

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (2UP)	47.6%	49.9%	44.9%	1.11×	2.00
Crystal Palace (2UP)	29.1%	24.7%	34.6%	0.72×	4.05

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to win 2nd half	34.6%	34.5%	36.4%	0.95×	2.90
Crystal Palace to win 2nd half	33.7%	34.5%	32.9%	1.05×	2.90
2nd half drawn	31.7%	34.4%	30.8%	1.12×	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (+2.5)	88.7%	88.5%	89.2%	0.99×	1.13
Crystal Palace (+1.5)	74.3%	73.7%	76.0%	0.97×	1.36
Leeds United (+0.5)	70.9%	73.7%	67.7%	1.09×	1.36
Crystal Palace (+0.5)	52.4%	52.3%	56.9%	0.92×	1.91
Leeds United (-0.5)	47.6%	47.7%	43.1%	1.11×	2.10
Crystal Palace (-0.5)	29.1%	26.3%	32.3%	0.81×	3.80
Leeds United (-1.5)	25.7%	26.3%	24.0%	1.09×	3.80
Leeds United (-2.5)	11.3%	11.5%	10.8%	1.07×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to concede	82.8%	81.3%	78.4%	1.04×	1.23
Crystal Palace clean sheet	17.2%	18.7%	21.6%	0.87×	5.34

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace clean sheet in 1st half	45.2%	50.8%	48.6%	1.05×	1.97
Crystal Palace to concede in 1st half	54.8%	49.2%	51.4%	0.96×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 6.5 corners	82.3%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Crystal Palace over 2.5 corners	75.9%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Crystal Palace under 5.5 corners	71.7%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Crystal Palace over 3.5 corners	59.1%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Crystal Palace under 4.5 corners	57.6%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Crystal Palace over 4.5 corners	42.4%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Crystal Palace under 3.5 corners	40.9%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Crystal Palace over 5.5 corners	28.3%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Crystal Palace under 2.5 corners	24.1%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Crystal Palace over 6.5 corners	17.7%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 3.5 goals	95.4%	97.6%	94.5%	1.03×	1.03
Crystal Palace under 2.5 goals	85.0%	81.5%	84.9%	0.96×	1.23
Crystal Palace over 0.5 goals	73.6%	71.9%	74.9%	0.96×	1.39
Crystal Palace under 1.5 goals	61.5%	62.9%	60.6%	1.04×	1.59
Crystal Palace over 1.5 goals	38.5%	37.1%	39.4%	0.94×	2.70
Crystal Palace under 0.5 goals	26.4%	28.1%	25.1%	1.12×	3.56
Crystal Palace over 2.5 goals	15.0%	18.5%	15.1%	1.23×	5.41
Crystal Palace over 3.5 goals	4.6%	2.4%	5.5%	0.45×	40.95

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace under 1.5 in 1st half	94.3%	94.2%	89.1%	1.06×	1.06
Crystal Palace under 0.5 in 1st half	68.1%	68.0%	59.4%	1.14×	1.47
Crystal Palace over 0.5 in 1st half	31.9%	32.0%	40.6%	0.79×	3.12
Crystal Palace over 1.5 in 1st half	5.7%	5.8%	10.9%	0.53×	17.27

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (away no bet)	67.1%	66.5%	63.6%	1.04×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.9%	33.5%	36.4%	0.92×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace even goals	53.5%	52.8%	53.6%	0.98×	1.90
Crystal Palace odd goals	46.5%	47.3%	46.4%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.2%	83.1%	80.1%	1.04×	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.8%	16.9%	19.9%	0.85×	5.92

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.2%	66.8%	70.2%	0.95×	1.50
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.8%	33.2%	29.8%	1.12×	3.01

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.4%	59.5%	61.5%	0.97×	1.68
Leeds United to score 2+ in a row	42.8%	38.2%	39.1%	0.98×	2.62
Crystal Palace to score 2+ in a row	28.2%	25.2%	29.9%	0.84×	3.97
Either team to score 3+ in a row	24.3%	19.4%	26.3%	0.74×	5.17
Leeds United to score 3+ in a row	16.7%	16.4%	16.5%	0.99×	6.10
Crystal Palace to score 3+ in a row	8.1%	5.6%	10.2%	0.55×	17.88

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United corners (+3.5)	87.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Leeds United corners (+2.5)	81.1%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Crystal Palace corners (+3.5)	80.3%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Leeds United corners (+1.5)	72.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Crystal Palace corners (+2.5)	71.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Crystal Palace corners (+1.5)	61.2%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Leeds United corners (-1.5)	38.8%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Leeds United corners (-2.5)	28.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Crystal Palace corners (-1.5)	27.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Leeds United corners (-3.5)	19.7%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Crystal Palace corners (-2.5)	18.9%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Crystal Palace corners (-3.5)	12.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	45.3%	40.6%	—	—	2.46
9-11 corners	30.1%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
12+ corners	24.5%	26.3%	—	—	3.80

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 11.5 corners	75.5%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	66.7%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	66.0%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 9.5 corners	56.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	54.7%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Under 8.5 corners	45.3%	47.7%	—	—	2.09
Over 9.5 corners	43.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	34.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 10.5 corners	33.3%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	24.5%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 12.5 corners	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.96

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.6%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	8.9%	0.84×	13.46
1-0	8.0%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.46
1-2	7.1%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.46
2-0	7.0%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.46
0-1	6.0%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.46
2-2	6.2%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.46
3-1	5.5%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.46
0-0	4.5%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.57
0-2	4.0%	1.7%	5.6%	0.31×	58.57
0-3	1.8%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.58
0-4	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.59
1-3	3.2%	1.7%	3.3%	0.53×	58.57
1-4	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.17×	58.59
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.71×	58.58
2-4	0.9%	1.7%	0.7%	2.49×	58.59
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.57
3-2	3.7%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.57
3-3	1.6%	1.7%	0.8%	2.22×	58.58
3-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.5%	3.33×	58.59
4-0	1.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.58
4-1	2.4%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.58
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.58
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.81×	58.59
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	4.99×	58.59
Any other score	4.5%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.57

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United leading at HT (DNB)	72.0%	71.3%	59.6%	1.20×	1.40
Crystal Palace leading at HT (DNB)	28.0%	28.7%	40.4%	0.71×	3.48

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United or Crystal Palace (12)	76.7%	75.6%	75.4%	1.00×	1.32
Leeds United or draw (1X)	70.9%	72.1%	67.7%	1.07×	1.39
Crystal Palace or draw (X2)	52.4%	52.5%	56.9%	0.92×	1.90

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United or draw at HT	83.4%	84.2%	75.4%	1.12×	1.19
Leeds United or Crystal Palace at HT	59.1%	56.9%	60.7%	0.94×	1.76
Crystal Palace or draw at HT	57.5%	56.8%	63.7%	0.89×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United or draw (1UP)	70.9%	79.9%	74.3%	1.07×	1.25
Crystal Palace or draw (1UP)	52.4%	58.7%	65.1%	0.90×	1.70

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United or Crystal Palace in 2nd half	68.3%	65.6%	69.2%	0.95×	1.53
Leeds United or draw in 2nd half	66.3%	65.5%	67.1%	0.98×	1.53
Crystal Palace or draw in 2nd half	65.4%	65.5%	63.6%	1.03×	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.6%	58.4%	56.6%	1.03×	1.71
Neither half drawn	40.4%	41.6%	43.4%	0.96×	2.40

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (DNB)	62.0%	62.9%	57.1%	1.10×	1.59
Crystal Palace (DNB)	38.0%	37.1%	42.9%	0.87×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score first	54.3%	54.3%	52.1%	1.04×	1.84
Crystal Palace to score first	41.1%	41.6%	43.2%	0.96×	2.41
No goal scored	4.5%	4.4%	4.8%	0.91×	22.85

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	61.0%	56.5%	58.2%	0.97×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.0%	43.5%	41.8%	1.04×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	50.3%	47.0%	46.7%	1.01×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	29.6%	33.6%	30.0%	1.12×	2.97
Both score & under 2.5	10.6%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	9.4%	8.4%	11.9%	0.70×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.8%	80.1%	82.2%	0.97×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.2%	19.9%	17.8%	1.12×	5.03

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	62.0%	66.1%	68.9%	0.96×	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	38.0%	33.9%	31.1%	1.09×	2.95

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	51.2%	56.1%	55.9%	1.00×	1.78
Both score 2nd half only	31.4%	27.2%	24.6%	1.11×	3.67
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	10.5%	13.0%	0.80×	9.56
Both score in both halves	6.6%	6.7%	6.7%	1.00×	14.96

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.6%	82.9%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.4%	17.1%	19.6%	0.88×	5.83

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.0%	57.4%	62.0%	0.93×	1.74
A half without a goal	41.0%	42.6%	38.0%	1.12×	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.1%	42.1%	46.6%	0.90×	2.37
4-6 goals	33.5%	30.7%	32.7%	0.94×	3.26
0-1 goals	18.6%	20.2%	18.1%	1.12×	4.94
7+ goals	3.8%	1.8%	2.8%	0.64×	55.03

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score exactly 1	35.2%	36.0%	35.6%	1.01×	2.78
Crystal Palace to score exactly 0	26.4%	27.4%	25.1%	1.09×	3.65
Crystal Palace to score exactly 2	23.4%	22.4%	24.5%	0.92×	4.47
Crystal Palace to score 3+	15.0%	19.5%	15.1%	1.30×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score exactly 1	30.3%	32.6%	29.7%	1.10×	3.07
Leeds United to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Leeds United to score 3+	25.9%	26.5%	22.9%	1.16×	3.77
Leeds United to score exactly 0	17.2%	18.9%	21.6%	0.88×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United leading at HT	42.5%	43.2%	36.3%	1.19×	2.32
Draw at HT	40.9%	43.1%	39.3%	1.10×	2.32
Crystal Palace leading at HT	16.6%	15.8%	24.6%	0.64×	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United -1: 2	52.4%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Leeds United -1: 1	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Leeds United -1: X	21.8%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:1)	52.4%	51.2%	56.9%	0.90×	1.95
Leeds United (0:1)	25.7%	27.0%	24.0%	1.12×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	21.8%	24.3%	19.2%	1.27×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:2)	74.3%	75.6%	76.0%	1.00×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	14.4%	11.0%	13.3%	0.83×	9.08
Leeds United (0:2)	11.3%	11.0%	10.8%	1.02×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:3)	88.7%	90.8%	89.2%	1.02×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.2%	5.8%	7.5%	0.77×	17.24
Leeds United (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	41.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (0:4)	95.9%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	2.1%	0.59×	83.14
Leeds United (0:4)	1.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.33

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (1:0)	70.9%	72.5%	67.7%	1.07×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	16.5%	17.0%	16.6%	1.03×	5.87
Crystal Palace (1:0)	12.6%	12.8%	15.8%	0.81×	7.81

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United (2:0)	87.4%	88.3%	84.2%	1.05×	1.13
Draw (2:0)	8.3%	6.5%	9.3%	0.69×	15.48
Crystal Palace (2:0)	4.3%	2.3%	6.6%	0.34×	44.13

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	54.6%	50.4%	49.7%	1.01×	1.98
1st half highest scoring	23.2%	24.2%	25.7%	0.94×	4.13
Halves equal	22.2%	24.2%	24.6%	0.98×	4.13

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to concede	73.6%	73.1%	74.9%	0.98×	1.37
Leeds United clean sheet	26.4%	26.9%	25.1%	1.07×	3.71

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United clean sheet in 1st half	68.1%	68.3%	59.4%	1.15×	1.46
Leeds United to concede in 1st half	31.9%	31.7%	40.6%	0.78×	3.16

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United over 2.5 corners	81.6%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Leeds United under 6.5 corners	75.5%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Leeds United over 3.5 corners	67.0%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Leeds United under 5.5 corners	63.5%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Leeds United over 4.5 corners	51.2%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Leeds United under 4.5 corners	48.8%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Leeds United over 5.5 corners	36.5%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Leeds United under 3.5 corners	33.0%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Leeds United over 6.5 corners	24.5%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Leeds United under 2.5 corners	18.4%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 3.5 goals	89.8%	87.2%	91.6%	0.95×	1.15
Leeds United over 0.5 goals	82.8%	82.1%	78.4%	1.05×	1.22
Leeds United under 2.5 goals	74.1%	74.2%	77.1%	0.96×	1.35
Leeds United over 1.5 goals	52.5%	53.3%	48.8%	1.09×	1.88
Leeds United under 1.5 goals	47.5%	46.7%	51.2%	0.91×	2.14
Leeds United over 2.5 goals	25.9%	25.8%	22.9%	1.12×	3.88
Leeds United under 0.5 goals	17.2%	17.9%	21.6%	0.83×	5.60
Leeds United over 3.5 goals	10.2%	12.8%	8.4%	1.52×	7.84

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United under 1.5 in 1st half	81.1%	84.6%	84.4%	1.00×	1.18
Leeds United under 0.5 in 1st half	45.2%	50.9%	48.6%	1.05×	1.97
Leeds United over 0.5 in 1st half	54.8%	49.1%	51.4%	0.96×	2.04
Leeds United over 1.5 in 1st half	18.9%	15.4%	15.6%	0.99×	6.48

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace (home no bet)	55.5%	56.6%	56.8%	1.00×	1.77
Draw (home no bet)	44.5%	43.4%	43.2%	1.00×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United even goals	51.5%	50.6%	53.6%	0.94×	1.98
Leeds United odd goals	48.5%	49.4%	46.4%	1.06×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	30.8%	32.4%	27.5%	1.18×	3.09
HT 1-0	24.5%	24.3%	21.8%	1.11×	4.12
HT 0-1	11.8%	11.0%	14.9%	0.74×	9.05
HT 2-0	9.7%	7.1%	8.1%	0.87×	14.07
HT 1-1	9.4%	7.1%	10.9%	0.65×	14.07
Any other HT score	5.3%	7.1%	5.3%	1.33×	14.13
HT 2-1	3.7%	2.2%	3.8%	0.60×	44.65
HT 0-2	2.3%	2.2%	4.5%	0.49×	44.76
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.2%	2.8%	0.79×	44.80
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.2%	1.0%	2.17×	44.88

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United at HT / Leeds United at FT	31.5%	32.2%	26.3%	1.22×	3.11
Draw at HT / Leeds United at FT	14.2%	12.7%	13.9%	0.91×	7.88
Draw at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	13.8%	12.7%	12.1%	1.05×	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.0%	12.7%	13.4%	0.94×	7.89
Crystal Palace at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	11.5%	12.7%	16.9%	0.75×	7.90
Leeds United at HT / Draw at FT	7.1%	6.0%	6.6%	0.92×	16.58
Leeds United at HT / Crystal Palace at FT	3.9%	3.4%	3.5%	0.98×	29.13
Crystal Palace at HT / Draw at FT	3.2%	3.4%	4.8%	0.72×	29.15
Crystal Palace at HT / Leeds United at FT	1.8%	3.4%	3.0%	1.14×	29.21

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to score last	54.3%	52.0%	50.3%	1.03×	1.92
Crystal Palace to score last	41.1%	40.1%	45.0%	0.89×	2.50
No goal scored	4.5%	4.4%	4.8%	0.91×	22.85

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	95.5%	95.6%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Leeds United to lead by 1 at any time	64.2%	61.5%	62.2%	0.99×	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.1%	50.5%	50.9%	0.99×	1.98
Crystal Palace to lead by 1 at any time	48.6%	44.0%	51.3%	0.86×	2.27
Leeds United to lead by 2 at any time	33.3%	29.5%	29.9%	0.98×	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	20.3%	19.6%	21.2%	0.92×	5.11
Crystal Palace to lead by 2 at any time	19.1%	15.0%	21.3%	0.70×	6.69
Leeds United to lead by 3 at any time	14.2%	10.5%	13.2%	0.80×	9.53
Crystal Palace to lead by 3 at any time	6.1%	6.5%	8.1%	0.80×	15.39

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United most corners	50.3%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Crystal Palace most corners	38.2%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Corners level	11.5%	10.6%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.1%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.6%	78.6%	79.2%	0.99×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.4%	78.6%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.1%	72.4%	75.3%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	61.4%	63.5%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.1%	59.2%	59.9%	0.99×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.9%	59.2%	55.8%	1.06×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.4%	53.1%	51.8%	1.03×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.1%	43.6%	46.6%	0.94×	2.29
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	41.5%	0.94×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.7%	39.2%	36.8%	1.06×	2.55
4-6 goals	33.5%	35.4%	32.7%	1.08×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.0%	30.2%	28.7%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.2%	18.6%	14.4%	1.29×	5.38
7+ goals	3.8%	2.5%	2.8%	0.90×	39.40

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United never behind	46.8%	57.1%	48.7%	1.17×	1.75
Crystal Palace never behind	31.2%	35.3%	37.8%	0.93×	2.83

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.9%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.1%	49.2%	51.0%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.7%	51.6%	53.3%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.3%	48.4%	46.7%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.1%	52.0%	51.8%	1.00×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.9%	48.0%	48.2%	0.99×	2.08

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	95.5%	95.5%	95.2%	1.00×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	93.2%	0.99×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.4%	82.4%	82.0%	1.00×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	79.9%	77.4%	82.9%	0.93×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.6%	61.8%	64.6%	0.96×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.7%	58.8%	58.5%	1.01×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	40.3%	41.2%	41.5%	0.99×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	37.4%	38.2%	35.4%	1.08×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	20.1%	22.6%	17.1%	1.32×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	18.6%	17.6%	18.1%	0.98×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	6.8%	1.14×	12.94
Under 0.5 goals	4.5%	4.5%	4.8%	0.94×	22.18

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.5%	86.7%	92.5%	0.94×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.3%	75.9%	76.4%	0.99×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.7%	75.9%	79.1%	0.96×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.9%	51.8%	53.9%	0.96×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.1%	48.2%	46.1%	1.05×	2.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.3%	24.1%	20.9%	1.15×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.7%	24.1%	23.6%	1.02×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.5%	13.3%	7.5%	1.76×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	2.9%	0.94×	36.32

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.4%	89.3%	87.3%	1.02×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	69.2%	69.1%	72.5%	0.95×	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.1%	69.0%	64.1%	1.08×	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.0%	35.9%	0.86×	3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half	30.8%	30.9%	27.5%	1.12×	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.6%	10.7%	12.7%	0.84×	9.38

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	85.3%	84.8%	1.01×	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.9%	67.3%	75.9%	0.89×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.1%	54.9%	54.2%	1.01×	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.9%	45.1%	45.8%	0.99×	2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.1%	32.7%	24.1%	1.36×	3.06
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	14.7%	15.2%	0.97×	6.80

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to score in both halves	80.5%	84.2%	76.7%	1.10×	1.19
Leeds United not to score in both halves	66.0%	70.0%	68.7%	1.02×	1.43
Leeds United to score in both halves	34.0%	30.0%	31.3%	0.96×	3.33
Crystal Palace to score in both halves	19.5%	15.8%	23.3%	0.68×	6.32

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	61.0%	60.2%	58.2%	1.03×	1.66
Only Leeds United scores	21.8%	22.4%	20.4%	1.10×	4.47
Only Crystal Palace scores	12.7%	10.9%	16.9%	0.65×	9.14
Neither team scores	4.5%	4.6%	4.8%	0.96×	21.69

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.2%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	21.7%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.5%	18.4%	0.95×	5.73
Exactly 1 goals	14.0%	12.1%	13.3%	0.90×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	10.7%	12.1%	10.4%	1.16×	8.29
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	6.8%	1.13×	13.13
Exactly 0 goals	4.5%	4.4%	4.8%	0.92×	22.60

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.1%	53.3%	54.2%	0.98×	1.88
1 goal in 2nd half	28.2%	29.6%	30.6%	0.97×	3.38
No goals in 2nd half	14.7%	14.6%	15.2%	0.96×	6.85

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win both halves	94.4%	94.0%	91.2%	1.03×	1.06
Leeds United not to win both halves	85.3%	88.0%	86.5%	1.02×	1.14
Leeds United to win both halves	14.7%	12.0%	13.5%	0.89×	8.32
Crystal Palace to win both halves	5.6%	6.0%	8.8%	0.68×	16.71

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leeds United to win either half	62.4%	65.3%	59.1%	1.11×	1.53
Crystal Palace to win neither half	55.3%	59.3%	51.3%	1.16×	1.69
Crystal Palace to win either half	44.7%	40.7%	48.7%	0.84×	2.46
Leeds United to win neither half	37.6%	34.7%	40.9%	0.85×	2.89

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Crystal Palace not to win to nil	87.3%	88.2%	83.1%	1.06×	1.13
Leeds United not to win to nil	78.2%	78.0%	79.6%	0.98×	1.28
Leeds United to win to nil	21.8%	22.0%	20.4%	1.08×	4.55
Crystal Palace to win to nil	12.7%	11.8%	16.9%	0.70×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.3%	24.1%	24.6%	0.98×	4.14
Leeds United by 1	21.8%	24.1%	19.2%	1.26×	4.14
Crystal Palace by 1	16.5%	16.9%	16.6%	1.02×	5.90
Leeds United by 2	14.4%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.46
Leeds United by 3+	11.3%	11.8%	10.8%	1.10×	8.47
Crystal Palace by 2	8.3%	7.2%	9.3%	0.78×	13.80
Crystal Palace by 3+	4.3%	2.7%	6.6%	0.41×	36.93