Leganes v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 12 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 12
On target
1 – 3
Shots in box
4 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.12
Goals − xG
-0.60 – -0.10
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leganes win
9.6%
Draw
14.3%
Barcelona win
76.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDDDWLWW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 15.8 xG
Barcelona are finishing above their chances — 2.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWLWLWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.5 xG
conceded 8
from 9.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.87–2.70 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.98–2.83 | 0-2 9% | 73% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leganes 0.60 xGBarcelona 1.10 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leganes attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Leganes |
Adrià Alti | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Raba |
| 21' |
Barcelona |
Jules Koundé | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 26' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Fermín López |
| 26' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Fermín López |
| 30' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iñigo Martínez |
| 39' |
Leganes |
Yan Diomande | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Seydouba Cissé |
| 42' |
Leganes |
Raba | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 43' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 47' |
Leganes |
Jorge Sáenz | 0.00 | Open Play | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 55' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Frenkie de Jong |
| 57' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Leganes |
Sergio González | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Óscar Rodríguez |
| 62' |
Barcelona |
Robert Lewandowski | 0.15 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 68' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ferrán Torres |
| 74' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jules Koundé |
| 75' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Cruz |
| 76' |
Barcelona |
Ferrán Torres | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 91' |
Leganes |
Munir | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Leganes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raba FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Sergio González DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Valentin Rosier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jorge Sáenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Javi Hernández DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Renato Tapia MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adrià Alti MR | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Seydouba Cissé MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Óscar Rodríguez MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Yan Diomande ML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.09 |
| Juan Cruz Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| Yvan Neyou Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Diego García Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Munir Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Raphinha AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| Jules Koundé DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.37 |
| Iñigo Martínez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.23 |
| Wojciech Szczesny GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Pedri DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Eric Garcia DMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Fermín López AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.06 | 0.56 |
| Robert Lewandowski FW | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Gerard Martín Sub | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Ronald Araújo DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Frenkie de Jong Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.18 |
| Álex Balde DL | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ferrán Torres Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| Gavi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pau Cubarsí Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |