Leganes v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 11 May 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 13
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 10
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.74 – 0.61
Goals − xG
+0.94 – +0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Leganes win
31.7%
Draw
27.4%
Espanyol win
40.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDDDWLWW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 13
from 15.8 xG
Espanyol are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLLWWDWLL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 11
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.08–1.27 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.07 | 1-1 13% | 40% | 47% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Leganes 2.06 xGEspanyol 1.58 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Leganes attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Leganes |
Raba | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 2' |
Leganes |
Munir | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 13' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Seydouba Cissé |
| 14' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 22' |
Leganes |
Seydouba Cissé | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yvan Neyou |
| 29' |
 Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 31' |
Leganes |
Diego García | 0.08 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Raba |
| 32' |
Leganes |
Seydouba Cissé | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raba |
| 35' |
Leganes |
Renato Tapia | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Munir |
| 38' |
Leganes |
Seydouba Cissé | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Leganes |
Yan Diomande | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raba |
| 45' |
Espanyol |
Javi Puado | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Leganes |
Renato Tapia | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego García |
| 47' |
Leganes |
Jorge Sáenz | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Raba |
| 49' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 52' |
Espanyol |
Alejo Véliz | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 62' |
Espanyol |
Marash Kumbulla | 0.00 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Own Goal | — |
| 62' |
Leganes |
Jorge Sáenz | 0.53 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Espanyol |
Leandro Cabrera | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Goal | — |
| 78' |
Espanyol |
Walid Cheddira | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Tejero |
| 88' |
Espanyol |
Marash Kumbulla | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
Espanyol |
Alejo Véliz | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tejero |
| 96' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Espanyol |
Marash Kumbulla | 0.09 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 96' |
Espanyol |
Walid Cheddira | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Urko Gonzalez |
| 97' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Urko Gonzalez |
Players
Leganes
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Sáenz DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.64 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Seydouba Cissé MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.06 | 0.58 |
| Yan Diomande DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.45 | 0.20 | 0.75 |
| Diego García FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Munir FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.04 | 0.75 |
| Renato Tapia DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Adrià Alti DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Valentin Rosier DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Yvan Neyou MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.26 |
| Raba FWR | 78 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 1.12 | 1.20 |
| Óscar Rodríguez Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darko Brasanac Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Duk Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel De la Fuente Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edu Expósito MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Marash Kumbulla DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.74 | 0.85 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.49 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Puado ML | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Roberto Fernández FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jofre Carreras DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Fernando Calero DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alex Kral MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejo Véliz Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Tejero Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.42 |
| Antoniu Roca Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pere Milla Sub | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |